Nottingham Forest’s Chris Wood is not a name you expect to feature in the top half of the Golden Boot standings. Erling Haaland, Manchester City’s Nordic goal machine, and Mohamed Salah, the Pharaoh of Anfield? Sure. But the stocky, six-foot-two Aucklander’s addition to the predictions has sparked the bookmakers’ interest.
Once known as a consistent striker for mid-table sides, the 33-year-old has quietly and diligently become the Premier League’s King Midas, hoping everything he touches – or kicks – turns to gold by the end of the season. As it stands, Wood has led Forest to third in the table, surpassing Chelsea, Man City and Newcastle, with runners-up Arsenal just three points adrift.
While the Golden Boot has historically been a predictable battle of sharp-shooting strikers, this time around, all the early signs indicate a thrilling showdown for spectators and punters.
Who are the 2024/25 Golden Boot contenders?
With just under four months left in this year’s campaign, there are several stars to monitor for the coveted prize.
Since joining Man City in 2022, Haaland has been the go-to pick for top scorer, but City’s recent struggles have opened the door for Salah. The 32-year-old currently leads the charts with 22 goals, while the Norwegian international sits at 19. The odds also reflect the proximity of their current scoring records – Salah at 4/6 and Haaland at 6/4. Hot on their heels are Newcastle’s Alexander Isak (17 goals, 9/1) and Chelsea’s Cole Palmer (14 goals, 25/1).
Football is anything but predictable. Last season, Palmer’s four-goal haul against Everton propelled him to a second-place finish – could he go one better this season, or will one of the more recognized picks steal the glory?
Enter, stage-right, Wood. In early February, the veteran striker made a statement with a hat-trick in The Tricky Trees’ 7-0 demolition of Brighton. Clearly, he’s emerged as a dark horse contender who might shake up this year’s Golden Boot winner odds.
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Meet Wood, Forest’s in-form striker
Just past the season’s halfway mark, Wood has shattered many punters’ pre-season predictions. Previously, the gritty target man’s main goal was scoring to survive rather than collecting silverware – now the New Zealander finds himself spearheading a Champions League-chasing side. This, mere months after Forest finished 17th last season, only one spot above regulation (albeit being docked four points for breaching league profitability and sustainability rules).
With 17 goals under his belt already this season, Wood has surpassed his 2023/24 goal tally (14) and is on track to become the first Kiwi to hit 100 Premier League goals. What’s changed? Well, in this particular campaign, he’s used his blistering height, strength and awareness to get on the other end of crosses and bury loose balls in the box. The forward currently leads the league in headed goals (six) and boasts a lethal 37.8% conversion rate, with over 70% of his shots coming off the first touch.
It’s no surprise that Wood has flourished under Nuno Espírito Santo’s counter-attacking system – a tactical tweak that only gained momentum since the Portuguese manager joined the club in December 2023. His biggest flex? Outperforming his expected goals by a whopping 6.1 – proof that he’s in the form of his life with nothing to lose.
Why Wood is the complete package
Premier League bettors should know that Woods’ scoring surge isn’t just a product of his work rate – the talent around him has been especially helpful.
In his Burnley days, he had a decent link-up with Dwight McNeil. But at Forest, Wood is reaping the rewards of even better service. England international Morgan Gibbs-White and speedy wingers Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi work to get the ball to their No. 11 on the break, with Elanga alone generating 33 opportunities this season and directing 78% of his touches toward the opposition’s box.
Of course, credit has to go to Santos, who has constructed an environment for Wood and his teammates to thrive. Forest may have the league’s lowest possession (40%), but when they do have the ball, their direct, counter-attacking style catches opponents off guard – a sharp contrast to the control-based approaches of Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta that many teams train to unravel. The result? A successful model that allows the frontman to thrive and outscore the competition.
When it comes to the betting market, Wood currently has 33/1 odds to win the season’s Golden Boot – a more challenging chance compared to the league’s household names. But just because Wood doesn’t have the same track record as the heavy hitters doesn’t mean he should be discounted. Momentum matters, and without the pressure his rivals face to deliver week after week, Wood should continue his rise and surprise even the most seasoned wagerers. History also proves that long-shot bets do sometimes pay off. In the 2015/16 season, Leicester’s Jamie Vardy was nowhere near the pre-season Golden Boot winner odds. Yet his relentless form saw him finish just one goal behind winner Harry Kane and tied for second with Sergio Agüero. With Wood outperforming and thriving in red and white, who’s to say history won’t repeat itself?
Risks to consider before wagering
Wood may be in red-hot form, but he isn’t an entirely safe betting pick.
The lumbering striker has a history of thigh and hamstring injuries that caused him to miss 11 games in 2023 and eight in early 2024. As the season continues and the fixture list congests, his body could struggle to keep up to speed with the demands. Another concern is Forest’s overreliance on him. Wood has nearly triple the goals of the club’s next top-scorer, Gibbs-White (five), while Elanga trails at three. With no one else stepping up on the goal-scoring front, Wood is understandably named to the team sheet week in and week out. Will he be able to maintain his newfound performance?
Beyond the physical concerns, it’s important to consider the mental toll. Unlike Haaland or Salah, who have supporting cast members capable of sharing the scoring load, Wood carries the burden of leading the team’s attacking charge. That pressure can lead to fatigue, dips in form, or even burnout.
Then, there are tactical elements to consider. Santo’s counter-attacking system has played to Wood’s strengths. But as teams review the video and adjust to this style, will he still find the same space and service as the season continues? That will be tested when Forest takes on Fulham for Matchday 25 this weekend.
The betting verdict: Why Wood is a value pick
It’s clear that Forest’s talisman isn’t the most obvious Golden Boot contender, but that’s what makes him such an intriguing bet. With a slew of goals already in his locker, a team structured to maximize his strengths, and a system that plays to his advantage, Wood has everything he needs for an unexpected yet legitimate run for the top-scorer title. Sure, the tipsters seem sceptical about his odds, but for bettors interested in a high-return dark horse-esque punt, Wood has all the ingredients to justify a wager.
Overall, the smart approach is to err on the side of balance. Wood offers a compelling high-value bet and risk-reward profile, especially if you place an each-way pick. If you prefer a safety net, sticking with the proven records of Haaland or Salah could be the way to go. But one thing is certain – Wood has turned this season’s Golden Boot race into a must-watch event for bettors and fans alike.
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(Photo of Chris Wood and Anthony Elanga: Getty Images/Carl Recine)
