Edmonton Oilers prospect winger Matt Savoie spent the first 20 games of the AHL season finding his way offensively (four goals, seven points). In the second 20-game segment of the Bakersfield Condors campaign, Savoie delivered eight goals and 20 points.
That performance has fans talking recall, and looking for Savoie’s Oilers debut.
Comparing Savoie’s offensive output at 20 to top forward prospects in the system since 2000, we get an interesting and varied list:
| Player | AHL Pts-Game ar 20 | NHL GP |
|---|---|---|
|
Ryan McLeod |
1 |
269 |
|
Tyler Benson |
0.97 |
38 |
|
Matthew Savoie |
0.78 |
0 |
|
Rob Schremp |
0.77 |
114 |
|
Jarret Stoll |
0.71 |
872 |
|
Marc Pouliot |
0.69 |
192 |
|
J-F Jacques |
0.68 |
166 |
|
Dylan Holloway |
0.67 |
144 |
|
Kailer Yamamoto |
0.67 |
306 |
|
Teemu Hartikainen |
0.64 |
52 |
|
Kyle Brodziak |
0.57 |
917 |
via AHL.com
Savoie ranks No. 3 among forwards from 2000-25 in AHL points per game. That’s impressive, but there are more positive indicators for the young Bakersfield forward that can be found from this list.
Speed
Among the forwards listed here, Tyler Benson, Rob Schremp and Teemu Hartikainen lacked top-end foot speed despite considerable skills in other important areas. NHL teams are more focused on speed now than at any time in the game’s history. Benson’s career trajectory saw him land in the top Swedish league this season, five years after a dominant AHL season at 20.
Savoie’s foot speed and acceleration aren’t in question. Corey Pronman at The Athletic, who is a hard marker in this area, has Savoie as “above NHL average” as a skater.
Playing the middle
The three most successful names on this list in terms of NHL career games are centres Jarret Stoll, Kyle Brodziak and Ryan McLeod. Both Stoll and Brodziak enjoyed extended careers in two-way roles, showing the value of playing in the middle. NHL teams are always on the lookout for centres. In the case of Stoll and Brodizak, both were right-handed. Right-handed centres have extra value due to their scarcity.
Savoie (also right-handed) played centre in junior, but has been deployed on the wing in the AHL. In time, it’s possible the organization will give him a look in pro at centre. It would increase his overall value.
Heart of the game
McLeod is going to have a long career, mostly due to terrific speed and the fact he plays centre. One of the things that held him back with Edmonton, and could impact his career length, is fading the physical side of the game.
Savoie isn’t shy in the rough moments. On draft day, Red Line report said “plays with some jam, dropping his shoulder to clear space. Shows some fire along the boards, using his stick liberally to win loose pucks.”
Savoie can take a hit, which was shown most recently on Friday night when he was wrecked by a Chicago Wolves player in overtime (coach Colin Chaulk called it “a violent hit”). He is undersized for pro hockey but plays with spark.
This is an important item to note. The Oilers under coach Kris Knoblauch are devoted to positioning and winning battles. Heavy hits, or any sort of hit that leaves an Edmonton player out of position, are being eschewed in favour of battles for loose pucks and backchecking with abandon.
Puck possession is king.
Savoie can backcheck with speed, but is observably smart in staying on the good side of the puck defensively. He doesn’t cheat for defence, but his acumen in this area had him outscoring AHL opponents at 67 percent rate through 40 AHL games this season. When Savoie was off the ice in those games, the Condors goal share fell to 46 percent. That’s stepping into an elevator shaft.
Size
Kailer Yamamoto is the smallest player on this list; he has already had an NHL career of significant length despite being just 153 lbs and 5-foot-8, according to the AHL’s website. There’s a segment of the Oilers fan base who worry that Savoie is another Yamamoto (a reminder, Yamamoto has played in an impressive 306 NHL games). Savoie is undersized, but is listed at 5-foot-9, 179 lbs, making him a more substantial player than Yamamoto despite the difference in age and experience.
Opportunity
High-end skill players don’t spend much time in the AHL. For much of the last 25 seasons, an Oilers prospect who was in the minors and then spiked offensively at age 20 would be an instant recall to the big club.
Savoie is in a different situation. The Oilers are currently in search of the Stanley Cup, and Savoie’s position is occupied by veteran players who are trusted by the head coach.
Top right winger Zach Hyman (19 goals this season after 54 a year ago) is a feature player, and Knoblauch has been shuffling Viktor Arvidsson (seven goals in an injury-plagued season), Connor Brown (seven goals) and Corey Perry (12 goals in a resurgent campaign) up and down the depth chart over the first 67 percent of the season.
If there’s a one-game opening in that lineup, Kasperi Kapanen is in Edmonton ready to pick up the slack.
Total recall
Savoie’s scoring and outscoring as an AHL rookie has spiked in the last 20 games. That means an NHL recall is possible. The depth chart makes it less likely than it would be if Savoie was trying to crack the 2014-15 Oilers roster, but things can change quickly.
Looking at recent recalls of 20-year-old forwards, it’s worth looking at Dylan Holloway’s progress in the organization during his pro career.
At 20, Holloway played one NHL (playoff) game, the rest in the AHL. He scored less often than Savoie has managed this season, with Holloway relying heavily on the power play to provide most of his offence as a freshman.
The following year, Holloway played 51 games in the NHL, averaging nine minutes per game at five-on-five in a depth role. In 2023-24, Holloway played 38 games with the team, increasing his five-on-five ice time to 11 minutes.
This season, Holloway has played 14 minutes per game at five-on-five and scoring well (1.95 points per 60) with the St. Louis Blues. If that is the progression template for Savoie, Oilers fans may not see him in NHL action until the fall, but will eventually be pleased with the results.
Bottom line
Based on AHL performance at 20, Holloway and Yamamoto were successful AHL scorers and Savoie is a little stronger offensively with about 40 percent of the season to go.
Savoie’s even-strength scoring (0.54 points per game) is ahead of Yamamoto (0.44 points per game) and well ahead of Holloway (0.3 points per game) in their respective AHL rookie seasons.
Savoie’s path to NHL time more closely resembles Holloway than Yamamoto (who went straight to the NHL four months after he was drafted).
The quickest way to the NHL for Savoie is a deadline trade, but the Oilers would be surrendering the most valuable prospect in the system.
His AHL performance suggests he might be able to step into the NHL as a regular as early as this fall. On the right-wing depth chart currently, all of Brown, Perry and Kapanen are unrestricted free agents this summer. The cap is going up, but a value contract and miles of skill make Savoie a strong in-house option for the Oilers.
Savoie’s AHL performance in 2024-25 stands tall among Oilers forward prospects since 2000. He brings a varied set of tools to the game and he can play and thrive in a very tough league.
He’s ready for an NHL audition that could be six months away. The days of inserting players drafted as recently as the same summer into the lineup are a thing of the past in Edmonton.
For Savoie, more success in the AHL is the best route to that NHL opportunity.
(Photo: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)
