Given that Zack Wheeler was able to, in the infamous words of former Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, “parlay two good half-seasons into $118 million,” it’s no surprise he turned four seasons of ace-level performance into an even bigger deal.
Wheeler and the Phillies agreed to a three-year, $126 million extension on Monday that will cover the 2025 through 2027 seasons. It’s a rewarding deal for the right-hander who has been among the game’s very best pitchers since moving down I-95 to Philadelphia.
Wheeler’s deal shows that the $40 million per year threshold isn’t just for soon-to-be Hall of Famers. Previously, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander had inked contracts for $43.3 million per season with the Mets. Wheeler, whose recent production rivaled that of Scherzer and Verlander, becomes the third pitcher with an average annual value exceeding $40 million. He reached that mark even without the hardware Scherzer and Verlander had compiled. They each had three Cy Youngs; Wheeler hasn’t won the award, topping out with a second-place finish in 2021. (Wheeler has still, somehow, only made the All-Star team once.)
What sets those deals apart, at this point, is their relative brevity. Scherzer and Wheeler signed for three years, Verlander for two with a vesting option. For a deal longer than three years, Jacob deGrom’s $37 million AAV is tops; for a deal longer than that, it’s still Gerrit Cole’s $36 million.
These all play into comps for the next free-agent class of pitchers, headlined by Corbin Burnes. For pitchers like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still on the market this winter, there isn’t much of a connection between Wheeler’s deal and what they could still receive this winter. If anything, the Phillies just became even less likely to pursue one of those arms.
Here to stay ❤️ pic.twitter.com/7Qh8jMaP12
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) March 4, 2024
Initially, the $118 million price tag for Wheeler in the 2019-20 offseason raised eyebrows around the industry, not to mention among fans. Wheeler at the time had a career ERA+ of 100, or league average, and his platform season was just a 103 ERA+. But the Phillies (and others involved in the bidding for Wheeler) recognized that he was fulfilling more and more of his potential during those last two seasons in New York and banked on his stuff playing even more effectively moving forward.
Wheeler has more than paid off that belief. He’s been arguably the sport’s best pitcher since he signed the contract — no pitcher has more wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs — and has helped pitch the Phillies deep into a pair of postseasons.
Wheeler’s initial free-agent deal, actually, should rank as one of the best free-agent signings this century. Among pitchers signed to nine-figure deals, only Max Scherzer’s 2015 pact with the Nationals delivered more surplus value (in terms of WAR) than Wheeler’s has so far.
The way Wheeler’s rewarded the Phillies’ initial trust has certainly helped other, similar pitchers, such as Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón, land big contracts in the free-agent market.
By the end of the deal in 2027, Wheeler will have earned more than a quarter-billion dollars as a professional baseball player. That’s especially impressive given how little he made early in his career.
Because of the Tommy John surgery and subsequent complications that cost him the 2015 and 2016 seasons, Wheeler entered arbitration at a low point. His first-year arbitration salary was just $800,000, or barely more than what the pre-arbitration minimum is today. Other players who have earned that amount the first time through arbitration include Kyle Crick, Sam Tuivailala, Josh James and Jesse Hahn.
Wheeler made a total of $8.7 million through the arbitration process. His contemporaries with the Mets made significantly more.
Jacob deGrom: $28.45 million plus an extension that valued his final arbitration season at an additional $23 million
Noah Syndergaard: $28.375 million despite missing a season with Tommy John surgery
Matt Harvey: $15.075 million
That Wheeler has recovered to this extent from essentially three lost seasons in the first half of his career is remarkable and I’m sure inspiring to other pitchers experiencing adversity in their supposedly prime years.
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(Photo: Rich von Biberstein / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
