Vikings-Bears preview, predictions: Can Minnesota push its winning streak to 7?

Optimism is at its peak for the Minnesota Vikings this season. The team is 11-2 and has won six straight. If the Vikings win at home against the Chicago Bears on Monday night, it will be their fifth win in six matchups against their Windy City foes since Kevin O’Connell became the head coach.

The game will happen in front of a national audience. ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” crew will be in town to see an offense that is humming and a defense attempting to get back to its early season ways.

What should we expect? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

What I’m watching

Lewis: Jordan Addison. In the last few weeks, few (if any) NFL receivers have been as dynamic. The only receiver with more touchdowns than Addison over this stretch is Ja’Marr Chase. Maybe most impressive is the quality of Addison’s route running. Next Gen Stats tracks receivers’ average maximum speed during routes. Addison’s speed (14.63 mph) is the highest in the NFL, directly ahead of Tyreek Hill, and he combines his production with a relaxed energy. That’s evident on the sideline, and it’s apparent in the way he interacts with teammates in the locker room. With Addison playing as well as he is, the Vikings offense is formidable. He caught eight passes for 162 yards and a touchdown against the Bears a few weeks ago. Unless Chicago alters its defensive approach, the second-year wideout could be in for another massive one.

Krawczynski: Those icy uniforms. Yeah, I said it. I’m generally a traditionalist with uniforms and think the Vikings’ purple is one of the classic looks in the league. But these? Maaaan, I love ‘em. The all-white with the silver trim on the purple numbers looks so clean. It’s the perfect way to mix things up without going too far. I wish they wore them more often this season, but debuting them against a division rival under the lights is a great choice. I can’t wait to see them in person.

Who’s ready for this whiteout?! ❄️#Winterwarriors@NoExcuses_23 #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/POJvCoLDdM

— Joshua Metellus (@NoExcuses_23) December 12, 2024

Biggest concerns

Lewis: The Vikings run defense. This is more of a down-the-stretch concern as opposed to a major worry against the Bears, but the Vikings have the lowest success rate against the run in the NFL over the last two weeks. There are a handful of reasons for it. First, Minnesota has been without linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. Second, Arizona and Atlanta are two of the better rushing teams in the NFL. And third, well, it wasn’t fair to expect the defensive line to remain as dominant as it’d been. The Bears are only averaging 3.7 yards per carry, 31st in the NFL. But the Packers and Lions are also two of the better rushing teams in the NFL, and the Vikings face both in the next four weeks. Getting back to stonewalling opponents on the ground is going to be critical for this defense to uphold its standard.

Krawczynski: The walk back to the parking ramp at 2 a.m. in the dead of winter. If this seems dismissive of the Bears, well, it is meant to be. Chicago is a team that looks to be on the verge of giving up — if it hasn’t already. The hope of a boost from the firing of the completely overwhelmed Matt Eberflus went out the window in San Francisco last week. Maybe the Bears will mount a more spirited effort against a division rival on Monday night. I mean, it was 30-27 when the two met in Chicago not that long ago. So this could be a bit of a slog, as it often is when these teams face each other. But, man, it just seems like these squads are headed in totally opposite directions and that the Vikings will roll at home with so much more to play for. That means making a four-block walk when it’s freezing cold is the thing I’m least looking forward to as this game approaches.

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Most interesting matchup

Lewis: The Bears defensive line versus the Vikings offensive line. Minnesota’s pass protection has been a bit shaky over the last two weeks. The Cardinals and Falcons created free runners in multiple instances, dissecting the Vikings’ protection rules. Atlanta also generated pressure with a four-man rush, something it had done little of this season. The interior of the Bears defensive line is middling, but Gervon Dexter Sr. is capable of some mayhem. The Vikings held Chicago to two sacks a few weeks ago, and Chicago’s front shouldn’t be able to torpedo the game. But the Vikings offensive line does need to prove its mettle down the stretch for this team to have a good shot at surprising folks come playoff time.

Krawczynski: Caleb Williams versus Cam Bynum. Over the past three weeks, Williams has thrown seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Bears offense was embarrassing in the first half last week but showed some life in the second. Williams has only thrown five picks this season, meaning he doesn’t give the defense many opportunities for turnovers. But Bynum, Byron Murphy and the Vikings defense are built on creating them. You know Bynum has something elaborate planned to celebrate on a Monday night, so he will be looking to get aggressive and make a play.

Most interesting storyline

Lewis: Can Sam Darnold continue this level of play? He’s looked fantastic of late, and his numbers match the eye test. It almost feels as if his 6-for-6 showing in overtime against the Bears catapulted him to another level of confidence. We touched on Darnold’s future earlier this week, but the longer he plays this well, the tougher the questions will get regarding his future.

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Krawczynski: Who is going to coach Chicago next season? There seems to be a lot of talent on the roster. Williams hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s definitely shown enough for Bears fans to be encouraged about the future. And the Vikings should be watching this closely as well. Right now, this is a division opponent that is down and out. But if the franchise makes the right choice for a new leader, one that meshes well with Williams, the Bears could be a formidable opponent very quickly.

How these teams match up from a data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness and success rate for efficiency:

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 31, Bears 14. I question games like this where I’m this confident, but it’s hard to think Minnesota won’t build off the victory over the Falcons. Night games at U.S. Bank Stadium always offer a different energy, and the Vikings will be introducing the offensive starters. Ovations for Darnold, Jefferson and Addison will be loud and should spur the Vikings to play with an edge. They face a tough run over the final month of the season, but this one should be on the easier side.

Krawczynski: Vikings 28, Bears 17. The Bears seem to be teetering on the edge of giving in. A couple of big plays early from Darnold, and the offense could push them in that direction really quickly. I’m slightly reluctant to pick a comfortable victory given the history between these teams, but all the wind seems to be at Minnesota’s back.

(Photo of Jordan Addison: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)