His nickname is ‘El Tren’ — the train — and several European suitors are queuing at the platform this month.
USMNT striker Ricardo Pepi’s journey from Texas — where he started out at FC Dallas — to the top, continues apace.
It has not been without challenges — most notably the fact that a club icon is still blocking his chances of regular starting football at Dutch outfit PSV, where the 22-year-old’s scoring record has nevertheless been outstanding.
The presence of Luuk de Jong on PSV’s roster remains an issue for Pepi but, with every goal-laden cameo from the bench, it is also becoming a conundrum for manager Peter Bosz and the club’s hierarchy.
Because now a clutch of clubs from other top European divisions, reportedly including the Premier League and France’s Ligue 1, are sitting up and paying close attention to the qualities Pepi has not been allowed to show as often as he’d like for the Eredivisie champions. This week, PSV director of football Earnie Stewart insisted “there’s not going to be a transfer,” regarding Pepi in January, though time will tell if a weighty offer could test that assertion.
With a World Cup on home soil in 2026, and with his competitors for a striking berth in Mauricio Pochettino’s USMNT squad currently injured — first-choice Folarin Balogun has missed a lot of football this season along with Norwich City’s Josh Sargent, Pepi could be making his case even stronger with more minutes on the pitch.
The narrative around several Premier League sides has been about the need for a ‘fox in the box’ center-forward in the mold of the highly sought-after Newcastle target man Alexander Isaak, who can hold the ball up and finish clinically in the penalty area.
PSV veteran Luuk de Jong has stood between Pepi and a regular starting spot. (Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images)
Pepi fits that profile, with most of his goals coming inside the area and a stronger examination of his numbers shows why clubs like Liverpool, Arsenal and Brighton could be tempted by what the 22-year-old brings.
Yet PSV do not want to lose their American star and Bosz constantly has to strike a fine balance between getting the most from club captain De Jong, 34, who is in his twilight years but has notched seven league goals, and Pepi, who has 10 but, according to the manager, still has much to learn.
“Pepi is a top striker and he is right when he says he is ready to be first striker at PSV,” Bosz said in November. “However, I have two top strikers and right now Luuk de Jong is my No. 1.
“Pepi has definitely already played more than last season, the same goes for other players. I also said before the season that I would rotate a bit more.
“Nothing has changed about him and his behavior. Pepi is still very young, it is up to us to develop him and he has definitely become a better player already. But there is still plenty to improve.”
The underlying numbers adore Pepi, with fbRef’s statistical profile analysis comparing his favorably to Viktor Gyökeres of Sporting (this winter’s hot striker target) and Evanilson of Bournemouth (who left Porto last summer). Much of this has to do with how he fares when assessing his output on a ‘per 90 minutes’ basis, as he remains second-choice at PSV.
When you’re only allowed to play 924 minutes in a 365-day span, the resulting numbers will boggle an onlooker’s mind. Since January 9, 2024, Pepi has churned out the following figures on a ‘per 90’ basis: 1.27 non-penalty goals from 0.82 npxG, 4.87 shots, 0.97 npxG + expected assisted goals, and 8.47 touches in the penalty area. All of these put him in the 99th percentile among strikers in the “Men’s Next 14 Competitions” just beneath Europe’s highest echelon.
Perhaps there’s no more effective way to illustrate the difference in how ‘per 90’ rates look depending on a player’s utilization than Pepi’s time in Holland, now in his third season within the Eredivisie.
Pepi spent 2022-23 on loan from Augsburg, starting 28 league games for Groningen. He fared quite well for the side in spite of its eventual relegation, scoring 12 goals and adding a trio of assists across 2,453 league minutes. His dozen goals came from the kind of meager service you’d expect from a relegated side, averaging 0.44 goals per 90 from 0.27 xG’s worth of chances.
Since joining PSV last season, Pepi has been the quintessential “plan B striker” to borrow a phrase from The Athletic’s Michael Cox. Pepi’s skill set is ideal for a first-man-off-the-bench archetype: a savvy poacher who can find space in the box no matter how congested, with impressive aerial prowess and sure-footedness when the ball touches ground.
Last season, PSV relied on him heavily late in games. At a glance, his seven goals from 27 appearances looks like a meager return…until you scan his stat line a bit closer. PSV only afforded him 484 minutes — the equivalent of 5.4 full matches, and an average of 17.9 minutes per shift — and gave him just one start in league play. He’s enjoyed a bit more generous run-out this season, with 643 minutes and five starts from 15 appearances as of January 9 (his 22nd birthday) — the equivalent of 7.1 full matches, and 42.9 minutes per shift.
Just imagine the havoc he could wreak if given a chance to lead this PSV line consistently.
Pepi isn’t just cashing in cheap chances once a win is already secured, either. He was a vital introduction at halftime of PSV’s Champions League match against Shakhtar Donetsk on November 27, with his side hosting but trailing 2-0 at the break. He and compatriot Malik Tillman led a spirited comeback at home, where PSV outshot the Ukranian guests 24-4. Tillman pulled two goals back in the 87th and 90th minute, with Pepi completing the comeback by tapping in a close-range match-winner in the game’s final minute.
After the match, Pepi called it the most important goal” of his young career. It was also the type of late-game heroism in a big moment that’ll perk the ears of many suitors.
Pepi’s wish for consistent starts is understandable. Considering the caliber of Isak, and Erling Haaland, it’s impossible to think he’d get that kind of run-out with either Newcastle or Manchester City.
However, the consistent strike rate he has displayed from the bench with PSV could make him a perfect option for either club as they fight to finish in a Champions League position at year’s end. He can learn either club’s game model while studying an exemplary pupil before making his mark against tired defenders. He’d still be taking a step up from PSV, which should keep him motivated in a rotational role. And, given his youthfulness, he’d have a chance to increase his value if he’s ready to become another club’s starter in a few years’ time.
There is every chance Pepi may decide to knuckle down and keep pushing De Jong, as PSV chase a successful defense of their title and progress in the Champions League.
Reports have also suggested the club wants Pepi to sign a new contract extension beyond June 2028 when his current terms expire.
But if factors combine and point to a change either now or in the summer, the queue of admirers and options for a fresh challenge are only growing.
(Top photo: John Thys/AFP via Getty Images)
