This Week: How Deep Will Luxury’s Downturn Go?

Shares in LVMH plunged 6 percent last Wednesday after the luxury goods giant reported fashion sales down 5 percent, badly missing expectations. With 75 top-end brands across categories, the conglomerate is broadly seen as a bellwether for the sector, while typically outperforming the competition. Shares in Kering, Hermès and Zegna, all of whom will report third-quarter sales this week, also dropped following LVMH’s miss.

The biggest issue for luxury is plummeting demand in China, where the economy has struggled to bounce back from Covid-19. The real estate sector accounting for 70 percent of China’s household wealth remains in crisis. Customers are increasingly pessimistic about their financial futures, and are holding onto savings. LVMH’s sales in Asia excluding Japan fell 16 percent last quarter, while Japan (a key destination for Chinese tourist shoppers) also slowed sharply.

Shares in Kering have bounced back in the past few days, likely because expectations for the Gucci and Saint Laurent owner were already extremely low: Gucci’s sales dropped 20 percent in the first half, and the company’s market capitalisation has fallen 40 percent year-on-year.

Analysts at UBS expect group sales down 15 percent when Kering reports Wednesday, mainly due to “no improvement at Gucci despite a higher share of [designer Sabato] De Sarno’s collections in stores.”

Market sources say the uptake for De Sarno’s first collections has been stellar among top-end buyers, who have sold out monogram-embossed $8,500 leather jackets and $11,500 lace dresses. “Runway releases from Gucci … were met with exceptional demand,” this season, Mytheresa’s chief commercial officer Richard Johnson said.

But the broader pyramid of shoppers — ones who only occasionally indulge in luxury bags, shoes and other “aspirational” merch —continue to indulge elsewhere. A spring-summer show that paid tribute to the Italian sunset but opened with a grey office tracksuit is unlikely to have moved the dial. Quarterly sales are expected down 24 percent.

Saint Laurent and the “Other Luxury” unit housing McQueen and Balenciaga are expected to be down 14 and 5 percent, respectively. Look out for updates on second-half profit: the previous guidance for a 30 percent drop “seems ambitious” as the company’s topline sinks, according to UBS.

Bottega Veneta could be a bright spot, having put its hefty effort to dial down wholesale exposure behind it. Sales at the Italian bagmaker are expected to rise 3 percent.

Elsewhere, Zegna reports third-quarter results Tuesday. Sales of high-end ready-to-wear from the Italian menswear giant have continued to hold up as luxury growth stalled for most brands. But the group’s Thom Browne subsidiary appears to have hit a wall: sales plummeted 20 percent in the first half of the year. Look for updates on the integration of Tom Ford, as well, which seems to have gotten off to a rocky start with the brand changing designers after just two seasons.

Then there’s Hermès. The French luxury stalwart, which reports Friday, has likely had no problem continuing to sell out its Birkin and Kelly bags. UBS expects 12 percent organic growth.

Still, the brand’s practice of privileging buyers who buy heavily across other categories has come under pressure in recent months. Amid declining enthusiasm for luxury across key economies, how many people are still willing to play “the Hermès game”? An antitrust lawsuit in the US suggests a growing number of customers have had enough.

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