The Winnipeg Jets are still Stanley Cup contenders, even as adversity strikes

I recently argued that the Winnipeg Jets needed a metaphorical “punch in the mouth” — an obstacle to overcome, so as to force the Jets to double down on their best 200 foot habits down the stretch. Gabriel Vilardi’s upper-body injury isn’t what I had in mind.

Vilardi was tripped by Alex Tuch at the end of Winnipeg’s game against Buffalo, striking the ice with his left shoulder. Coach Scott Arniel didn’t confirm that this wasn’t the exact moment of Vilardi’s injury — just that Vilardi is out week-to-week — but did make it clear that the injury wasn’t related to the puck he took in the face in the first period. Either way, Winnipeg is missing a key piece of top line and the cornerstone of its league-leading power play.

Most troubling? Arniel couldn’t promise that Vilardi would be ready for Game 1 of the playoffs.

It’s adversity Winnipeg must overcome. The Washington Capitals are the Jets’ next opponent — and the only team ahead of Winnipeg in the standings — making this week the ideal time to take stock of Winnipeg’s playoff ambitions.

The Jets are a Stanley Cup contender, with strengths in most facets of the game, but Vilardi’s injury eliminates an elite distributor from the power play. It’s also the second “week-to-week” injury Winnipeg has endured this month, with Neal Pionk yet to skate since twisting his leg in a collision with New York’s Brennan Othmann on March 11.

Meanwhile, the Jets have the 13th-best points percentage since the 4 Nations break — worse than Central Division rivals Colorado, Dallas, and St. Louis, the team they have the highest odds of playing in Round 1.

Is it time to prepare for a third straight first-round exit?

Not so fast. Here’s how the Jets stack up against the NHL’s top teams — even as they limp their way through the stretch.

Offence: Mark Scheifele isn’t finishing, but don’t lose sight of the process

Let’s start with a quick look at the Jets’ offense. Despite recent struggles, the power play has been the class of the league, but how has Winnipeg done at five-on-five?

Look at the season-long numbers and find that Winnipeg has scored the 10th most goals with the 10th most expected goals, as per Natural Stat Trick. How appropriate. Check the totals since the 4 Nations Face-Off, though. Compare them to your memory of recent games, whether it’s James Reimer channeling Dominik Hasek or Winnipeg’s snipers flat out missing the net from point blank.

The Jets have created more five-on-five offence during their (relative) scoring slump than they did when everything was going in the net. They’re getting to dangerous areas of the ice and getting shots off when they’re there, but the Jets aren’t finishing at their usual rate. On an individual level, Cole Perfetti is 11th, Kyle Connor is 26th, and Adam Lowry is 36th in expected goal scoring since the break.

Connor, Perfetti, and Nikolaj Ehlers have done their part in terms of finishing, with six goals (Connor) and four each from Perfetti and Ehlers, but there are a lot of miserable shooting percentages. You’d like to see Mark Scheifele higher than 19th in shots per minute at five-on-five but at least he’s getting pucks to Connor for shots. Most of the goals drop-off comes from a nosedive in finishing — the Jets have created more chances from prime real estate since the 4 Nations break than almost any other team. Blame bounces, or the opponents’ goalies for their saves, or the Jets for not bearing down. Winnipeg’s five-on-five offence has been a strength down the stretch.

It’s the power play that’s concerning — especially with Vilardi gone.

There are two competing interpretations available here. I tend to believe that a power play can outscore its expected goals numbers over the course of a season. The data leans heavily on shot volume and shot location, without including a goaltender’s sightlines or movement. Meanwhile, power plays tend to take the shots that they want to take, influencing shot quality through puck movement with more control than is manageable at five-on-five. (This is my way of saying I don’t think it’s an emergency that the Jets have run hot over the course of the full season.)

The problem is partly that power plays depend on finishing — which can vary wildly in a small sample — while teams spend roughly 10 percent of game time with the man advantage. Sure, more goals get scored this way, but even then: The Jets have scored roughly three times as many even-strength goals as they’ve scored with the man advantage. Five-on-five play is still the heart of the game.

So why have the Jets stopped scoring, despite shooting just as often from similar places?

Connor hasn’t scored a single power-play goal since the 4 Nations break, despite 16 shots. Scheifele has scored once in 10 shots. And that’s basically the whole story: Connor and Scheifele have each taken (slightly) more shots per minute in this time frame; they just haven’t buried.

Arniel defended Scheifele’s scoring slump this week, saying we should focus on his scoring chances instead of his goals. I think Connor is getting the majority of the chances at five-on-five — often set up by Scheifele — but they’ve each been close with the man advantage. They just need to score, especially now that Vilardi’s net-front creativity will be missing.

Alex Iafallo will take Vilardi’s spot on the power play. As a left-handed shooter, he will spend more of his time on the doorstep than in Vilardi’s playmaking position beside the net. Ehlers’ role is going to increase — I expect the Jets to run more plays through him on the right flank, likely boosting Scheifele’s shot totals. The two have connected for a lot of scoring chances and a few power-play goals this season.

If Iafallo is ineffective, then look for Perfetti as the most sensible alternative.

Defence: Would you believe that they’re improving here, too?

Pionk has been injured. Logan Stanley and Haydn Fleury have been in and out of the lineup on the third pair.

And the Jets have been every bit as good defensively during this average-looking stretch of play as they’ve been all season long.

The trends hold if you look at rate stats: Since the break, Winnipeg is fourth in expected goals against and second in goals against. The team defence continues to hold, even as individual mistakes last disproportionately in memory.

If Reimer didn’t stand on his head, for example, Dylan DeMelo’s play on this JJ Peterka goal wouldn’t raise the alarm that it did.

JJ Peterka, 1-0 #Sabrehood #GoJetsGo pic.twitter.com/yhSH7wvZgT

— Buffalo Hockey Moments (@SabresPlays) March 23, 2025

DeMelo is a candid, thoughtful speaker with a good read of the game. I asked him what a defenceman is meant to do on that play.

“I tried to fight through it,” he said. “I easily could have ran into him and tried to draw (a penalty) but I tried to spin him. You’re not thinking in that moment — you just react. He came and cut me off and I tried to stay loose and then try to get him. It’s hard when a guy’s got a step and you’re in the midst of your spin move.”

Teams run pick plays, including the Jets. Arniel said the Jets would have done better to stay patient in the slot, playing better help defence in the middle of the ice. DeMelo put his focus on the postseason.

“I’m going to look at it because that’s going to happen in the playoffs,” he said. “And we all know that, in the playoffs, the whistles go away. If there’s any type of interference off the draw, you just have to find a way. Maybe I’ll try to execute that spin a little bit quicker. Or maybe it’s just me staying patient in the hole and letting the play materialize.”

DeMelo has been beaten more often this season than in years past, but he and Josh Morrissey maintain excellent underlying numbers and are still winning their minutes by a sizeable margin. Dylan Samberg and Pionk were in the same position, winning their minutes in terms of underlying numbers and real goals.

Samberg and his new partner, Luke Schenn, have some very different numbers. The Jets have won that pairing’s minutes 3-1 in terms of real goals despite getting outshot. To me, the poor underlying numbers aren’t about a lack of defensive ability — it’s Winnipeg missing Pionk’s play in transition. Schenn makes good five-to-10 foot passes that help key breakouts, but Pionk can stretch the puck up ice with accuracy and is a more dynamic offensive threat.

I think it’s reasonable to wonder about the Jets’ size and strength when the playoffs begin. Net-front battles were a huge part of Colorado’s advantage last season. I also think Schenn was a sensible addition and gives the Jets a much-needed skillset in an important depth role.

Either way, it’s clear that the Jets’ defence is still a team strength. Watch out for St. Louis, though — they’re the only team with better defensive numbers than Winnipeg in expected and real goals against per minute at five-on-five.

By the way: Did you have the Jets as No. 1 in any key PK category?

The Jets have given up the fewest shots against per minute while shorthanded since the break. They’re eighth-best in that regard this season.

In both cases, Winnipeg appears to be held back by its shorthanded goaltending — 19th-best throughout the season and second-worst since the break. When we’re talking about a sample with 63 minutes and 37 shots in it, there’s plenty of opportunity for individual moments to have an outsized impact on the final numbers. I still think that power plays dictate shot quality, mind you, and there could be an area for concern.

Only three goalies have faced more rebound shots than Hellebuyck has faced while shorthanded. There’s plenty of room to advocate for better boxouts and netfront battles; that’s part of why they got Schenn in the first place and, as we recently discussed, it’s a big part of what Samberg does best.

There’s been a bit of a “sky is falling” reaction to recent Jets losses to Buffalo and Vancouver, while Winnipeg didn’t look to be at its best when it beat Edmonton last week. If the Capitals beat the Jets without Vilardi and Pionk on Tuesday, I suspect the fanbase’s playoff worries will intensify.

That’s fine, but try not to lose sight of the big picture. Even as the Jets’ points pace has fallen from best in the league to average, Winnipeg looks good by a lot of indicators since the break — and better in many of them. Adversity has struck the 2024-25 Jets and they remain among the NHL’s top teams.

Winnipeg will clinch a playoff spot with a point against Washington or any form of Blues loss to Montreal on Tuesday.

(Photo of Gabriel Vilardi: James Carey Lauder / Imagn Images)