With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders will clash Sunday in what should be two tightly contested championship bouts. As of Wednesday afternoon, the Chiefs stand as 2-point favorites at home against the Bills — a margin that more or less accounts for Kansas City’s home-field advantage. The Eagles are favored by 6 points at BetMGM over the Commanders, but the teams split their regular season series in a pair of one-possession games (a 26-18 Eagles win in Philly and a 36-33 Commanders victory in Washington).
Considering those narrow margins, a series of small factors could decide Sunday’s AFC and NFC Championship. Here are several key areas to keep in mind, starting with an examination of the much-discussed advantage the Chiefs enjoy in the penalty department, which has been statistically true over the past several seasons.
Kansas City’s penalty advantage
Is the propagated notion that the Chiefs get love from officials and Patrick Mahomes gets bailed out with roughing-the-passer penalties true? Once we believe something is true — and who outside of Kansas City doesn’t believe the Chiefs get the breaks from the zebras? — we have a bias of remembering all the incidents that confirm it, while forgetting all that contradict it.
In the postseason during their Super Bowl run (2022-to-present), Chiefs opponents committed 6.875 penalties per game, according to Pro-Football Reference. Those penalties have accounted for 56.4 yards per game. Opponents to teams other than the Chiefs average 4.6 penalties, accounting for an average of 36.8 yards. That’s a differential of 20.4 yards per game. NFL teams averaged 14.8 yards per point in 2024, so that’s about 1.4 points more — pretty significant. (The Chiefs have been flagged 3.75 times per game for 34.1 yards.)
Is Mahomes protected to an outlying degree by refs? Mike Pereira, a former NFL official and current Fox Sports rules analyst, recently spoke to NFL Network’s Rich Eisen about this idea:
“It doesn’t resonate with me at all. … The fact that you’re looking out for anyone, any team, any individual, is a myth. It is an absolute myth. You don’t have time to react and say, ‘This is Goff, I’m not going to call this because it’s Goff,’ or, ‘This is Mahomes, I’ve got to call this because it’s Mahomes.’”
Coincidence or not, the numbers clearly favor Mahomes. According to NFL Penalties, Mahomes has drawn five roughing-the-passer penalties in the past five postseason games, an average of one per game. This is not counting roughing calls on him as a runner, like the one that basically won the AFC championship for the Chiefs in 2022. The average for active QBs in the playoffs is 0.12 per game. His career average of 0.412 per postseason game is the highest among all active QBs. Incredibly, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Matthew Stafford have combined for zero roughing-the-passer calls in 55 career postseason games.
Travis Kelce’s postseason surge
Sticking with the Chiefs, Travis Kelce is still a dominant player … in the postseason. In his past two regular seasons, in which he’s appeared a shadow of his former self, Kelce has three games out of 31 with at least 75 receiving yards and a TD. In the past two postseasons (five games), he’s also done it three times. That’s higher than his career postseason rate heading into the 2023 postseason.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen
Josh Allen actually has a .500 lifetime record against Patrick Mahomes in eight matchups — a 4-1 mark in the regular season, balancing out being 0-3 in the postseason. If he loses to Mahomes again on Sunday, he’ll tie Aaron Rodgers for the most losses without a win against a single opponent in NFL playoff history (Rodgers is 0-4 against the San Francisco 49ers).
Going for it on fourth down
If we get a Buffalo Bills-Washington Commanders Super Bowl, we may not see any field goal attempts. Allen and Jayden Daniels are incredibly efficient at converting first downs on fourth down when needing four yards or less and on the opponent’s side of the field. To eliminate scoreboard influence and desperation plays, we’re only looking at the first three quarters of 2024 games, including the postseason.
Allen and especially Daniels are menaces on fourth down in plus territory needing 1-to-4 yards. Allen is 9-for-11 (82 percent) with the ball in his hands as a thrower or runner. Daniels is 9-for-10 (90 percent) with 54 rushing yards on six carries (all six for first downs). The NFL average is 65.9 percent — 193 first downs in 293 attempts.
But most of these league-wide attempts are when only one yard is needed to gain a first down. If we move the range to needing two-to-four yards in these fourth-down situations, their edge is even more pronounced. Allen is 66.7 percent (4-for-6) and Daniels 85.7 percent (6-for-7) vs. just 29.3 percent for the rest of the league (70-for-239). What this means, essentially, is that the Commanders and Bills have three downs to get six yards once they cross midfield. On fourth down needing four yards or less, the defense is basically toast. (Jalen Hurts is 4-for-7 this year in these situations, and Patrick Mahomes is 1-for-1, excluding running plays to non-QBs.)
Tracking “move” plays
The Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles are both elite at “move” plays. This is a concept invented by the stat maven of the mid-20th century and beyond, Bud Goode. “Move” plays include only runs and completions (not attempts or sacks) as plays. Hall of Fame coach Dick Vermeil was probably the biggest proponent of this and Goode’s work in general. It was the first stat he asked for after games. The Eagles were second in the league (including the postseason) at 9.2 more “move” plays per game than their opponent. Washington was third at 6.7 more.
The top 10 teams in the stat averaged 12.4 wins. The bottom 10 averaged 5.0. There is clearly some correlation — and not causation — here, but tracking “move” plays is better than examining time of possession because “move” plays don’t reward teams for playing at a slow pace or punish those who play at a faster pace. And Goode’s stat at least shows that the team is capable of beating the clock when, with the lead in hand, it becomes the top priority.
How the Eagles can win (or lose)
A key for the Eagles, of course, is Saquon Barkley. He’s currently No. 1 in NFL history in rushing yards per game in the postseason (minimum two games). He’s at 162 this postseason, topping Terrell Davis’ 156 per game in the 1998 postseason. The Commanders were terrible against the run in the regular season, and that’s carried through in the postseason.
The Eagles must lean on Barkley because their passing game is broken. Jalen Hurts has been sacked on 18 percent of pass plays. That’s the fourth-highest total in a single postseason this century. The other QBs are 5-10 in those games. None of the other QBs have made it to a third postseason game.
The Commanders, though, have lost their pass-rush mojo of late. In the regular season, their rate of a sack on 8 percent of pass plays was the fifth highest. In the postseason, that number has collapsed to 4.9 percent, which would have ranked last in the regular season. If sacks become a problem for the Eagles on Sunday, the culprit will likely be Hurts and his propensity to hold the ball.
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: David Eulitt / Getty Images)
