Super Bowl MVP early odds: Lamar Jackson an unlikely favorite, Travis Kelce a 50-1 long shot and more



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If actual Super Bowl odds don’t do it for you, how about speculation on who will be Super Bowl 58’s Most Valuable Player? It’s a fun exercise in layers, as you have to balance who advances this weekend? against who will have a standout game in the Super Bowl?

Super Bowl MVP odds

The Super Bowl MVP markets are up and Jackson is a bit of a surprise favorite to win that award — typically, the starting quarterback on the favored team is expected to win MVP (that would be Brock Purdy in this instance).

Purdy is the second favorite (+325) and Christian McCaffrey is the third at +600. Given how McCaffrey seems to take over every game he’s in, he may be a good bet to win the award if you think that the 49ers will win it all.

All odds via BetMGM.

Super Bowl MVP spin

I can understand why Lamar Jackson is the favorite for MVP — he’s a dynamic dual-threat playmaker who can seemingly win games all by himself. I don’t think this is as much about “Brock Purdy disrespect” as it is that Jackson can run for 100 yards on top of throwing for 230 and a couple touchdowns.

Where is gets interesting is with the position players. Christian McCaffrey has that Lamar Jackson-style dynamism (he can have 180 total yards, with 90 coming from rushing and 90 from receiving). But I think if the 49ers make the Super Bowl, you’ll see a split vote between him and Purdy, especially if Deebo Samuel is healthy and Purdy has another target to spread around his passing yards. Once you get past Jared Goff, however, there’s a massive dropoff in odds and several interesting options that will, admittedly, need a few things to go right — but the payoff is exciting.

I’m eyeballing Travis Kelce at +5000 (or 50-to-1). We’re coming off a game where Kelce scored two touchdowns. He has two games of 70-plus yards. If you look at the entirety of his postseason career — 20 games — Kelce has two games (2019 and 2015) where he’s had fewer than 40 yards without a touchdown.

Two things are going to have to happen to turn $20 into $1000 — but that’s obviously why the odds are so long. First, the Chiefs have to get past the Ravens. It’s possible. Baltimore is hot right now, but the Chiefs seem destined to never go away in the playoffs. So let’s say they advance. We then need Patrick Mahomes to have a decent (but not great) game, with the bulk of his offensive output going through Travis Kelce. And not a lot of rushing yards. Mahomes has to put up pedestrian (for him)-type numbers. Like 230 and 3 TDs, with two of the TDs going to Kelce. Maybe we get 60-70 yards from Isaiah Pacheco just to take another bite of the total yards pie. A TD would be nice. We need Pacheco to be just good enough but not too good to stand out to MVP voters.

Everyone has been saying all season that KC doesn’t have WR depth. Great. But they do have one of the greatest tight ends of our time, who has a ridiculous postseason record, is on a hot streak, and his team has a decent chance of getting to the Super Bowl. This is a very long shot, but I would have expected Kelce to be sitting at 25-1 or 30-1, not 50-1. — Nando Di Fino, Sports Betting Sr. Managing Editor

Super Bowl MVP History

Super Bowl

  

MVP

  

Team

  

Position

  

I

Bart Starr

Green Bay Packers

QB

II

Bart Starr

Green Bay Packers

QB

III

Joe Namath

New York Jets

QB

IV

Len Dawson

Kansas City Chiefs

QB

V

Chuck Howley

Dallas Cowboys

LB

VI

Roger Staubach

Dallas Cowboys

QB

VII

Jake Scott

Miami Dolphins

S

VIII

Larry Csonka

Miami Dolphins

RB

IX

Franco Harris

Pittsburgh Steelers

RB

X

Lynn Swann

Pittsburgh Steelers

WR

XI

Fred Biletnikoff

Oakland Raiders

WR

XII

Harvery Martin/Randy White

Dallas Cowboys

DE/DT

XIII

Terry Bradshaw

Pittsburgh Steelers

QB

XIV

Terry Bradshaw

Pittsburgh Steelers

QB

XV

Jim Plunkett

Oakland Raiders

QB

XVI

Joe Montana

San Francisco 49ers

QB

XVII

John Riggins

Washington Redskins

RB

XVIII

Marcus Allen

Los Angeles Raiders

RB

XIX

Joe Montana

San Francisco 49ers

QB

XX

Richard Dent

Chicago Bears

DE

XXI

Phil Simms

New York Giants

QB

XXII

Doug Williams

Washington Redskins

QB

XXIII

Jerry Rice

San Francisco 49ers

WR

XXIV

Joe Montana

San Francisco 49ers

QB

XXV

Ottis Anderson

New York Giants

RB

XXVI

Mark Rypien

Washington Redskins

QB

XXVII

Troy Aikman

Dallas Cowboys

QB

XXVIII

Emmitt Smith

Dallas Cowboys

RB

XXIX

Steve Young

San Francisco 49ers

QB

XXX

Larry Brown

Dallas Cowboys

CB

XXXI

Desmond Howard

Green Bay Packers

KR

XXXII

Terrell Davis

Denver Broncos

RB

XXXIII

John Elway

Denver Broncos

QB

XXXIV

Kurt Warner

St. Louis Rams

QB

XXXV

Ray Lewis

Baltimore Ravens

LB

XXXVI

Tom Brady

New England Patriots

QB

XXXVII

Dexter Jackson

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

S

XXXVIII

Tom Brady

New England Patriots

QB

XXXIX

Deion Branch

New England Patriots

WR

XL

Hines Ward

Pittsburgh Steelers

WR

XLI

Peyton Manning

Indianapolis Colts

QB

XLII

Eli Manning

New York Giants

QB

XLIII

Santonio Holmes

Pittsburgh Steelers

WR

XLIV

Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints

QB

XLV

Aaron Rodgers

Green Bay Packers

QB

XLVI

Eli Manning

New York Giants

QB

XLVII

Joe Flacco

Baltimore Ravens

QB

XLVIII

Malcolm Smith

Seattle Seahawks

LB

XLIX

Tom Brady

New England Patriots

QB

L

Von Miller

Denver Broncos

LB

LI

Tom Brady

New England Patriots

QB

LII

Nick Foles

Philadelphia Eagles

QB

LIII

Julian Edelman

New England Patriots

WR

LIV

Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

QB

LV

Tom Brady

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

QB

LVI

Cooper Kupp

Los Angeles Rams

WR

LVII

Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

QB

(Top photo: Jerry Jackson/Baltimore Sun/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)





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