It’s late, and you’re somewhere you shouldn’t be. A man in a trenchcoat sidles up and whispers something before you even know he’s there.
“Psst. Wanna buy some dingers?”
You know how the world works. You should not trust strangers approaching you with hushed tones and questionable offers in dark alleys. But you sure could go for a few dingers. Besides, what’s the worst that could happen?
This is a look at Anthony Santander, a switch-hitting outfielder who hit 44 home runs last season. Only eight other players have hit as many in a season since 2020. The Giants haven’t had a player with 30 homers since Barry Bonds. Do you want to take a guess as to the last player they had with 40 home runs? Well, yes, it was also Bonds, lucky guess. Still, that was more than two decades ago, and the Giants have been frequently starved for power since then. Santander represents power available in the open-air bazaar of the offseason.
On FanGraphs’ Roster Resource, the Giants’ page has Heliot Ramos as the DH and Grant McCray as the starting left fielder. The likelier arrangement as of right now is Ramos in left and a carousel of hitters as the DH, from Wilmer Flores and Jerar Encarnacion, to Marco Luciano or whoever gets hot in Scottsdale. And, considering that Willy Adames just signed the largest contract in franchise history, it’s possible that the Giants are done adding to the lineup. Their attention might be focused on the rotation, and they’re still getting mentioned as the “favorites” for Corbin Burnes.
It’s far more likely that the Giants will spend nine figures on a player like Burnes instead of Santander, but it would be malpractice to look at the Giants’ projected lineup and not get covetous over those home runs. Santander hits an awful lot of them. And he has “Santa” right in the name. You’ve all been good this year, right? Mm hmm. Mm hmm. Oh, my. Well, maybe don’t mention all that, and you might still get something under the tree.
Why the Giants would want Anthony Santander
Dingers, yes, but there’s even more to like about Santander’s power. He’s a switch-hitter, for one, and he’s a consistent one. His platoon splits were separated by 30 points of OPS in 2024, and they were separated by just eight points in 2023. He isn’t the kind of switch-hitter who needs finger quotes when you say “switch-hitter,” like Pablo Sandoval or J.T. Snow. He’s the real deal, someone who should be a switch-hitter. And that would have all sorts of downstream effects for the Giants’ lineup.
Consider the platoon splits for Mike Yastrzemski and Ramos, and how it would be in the Giants’ best interests to avoid having both of them in the same lineup, if possible. It doesn’t have to be a platoon, and it won’t be if we come up with some sort of corporate-speak term for it. It’s not a platoon, but a “designed player optimization and mutually beneficial deployment.” Yes, that will do just fine. Santander’s switch-hitting power would give the Giants a lot of options in that arrangement.
There’s no way to get the Giants to an excellent lineup at this point, but one more everyday player would allow them to get the most out of what they have. You’ll see less Yastrzemski against left-handers, less Ramos against right-handers. You’ll get more favorable matchups for a healthy Wilmer Flores, and if he’s not in as many starting lineups, he’ll be available for more favorable pinch-hitting opportunities, too.
It will afford the Giants even more patience (some might say too much) with Luciano, and they could also have Encarnacion prove himself in Triple A again, just to make sure. The move wouldn’t just get an .750-ish OPS in the lineup, but it would remove the .600-ish OPSs from a couple hitters who struggle with same-side pitching. That makes a huge difference over a 162-game season.
Which brings us to the next positive attribute of Santander: He’s likely to play a good chunk of that 162-game season. He’s been a reliable and healthy option for the Orioles over the last several years, with at least 647 plate appearances in each of the last three seasons. Every player is a reliable workhorse until he isn’t — Cal Ripken Jr. has missed a ton of games over the last few years — but you’ll take your chances with an outfielder with Santander’s history.
His power is also pitcher’s-park tested, as the Orioles screwed around with their park configurations and turned their left field into a power graveyard.
Artist’s conception of what the Orioles did to the Camden Yards outfield.
He hit more homers as a left-handed hitter than a right-handed one, so don’t expect 44 homers from Santander if he plays at Oracle Park. He won’t be scared by the general concept of a pitcher’s park, though. He’s conquered one of those before.
A middle of the lineup with Adames, Santander and Matt Chapman is hard for opposing teams to plan for in the late innings. Or, rather, it’s probably easy to plan for, in that they won’t have to worry as much about lefty-righty matchups, but it would be in the spirit of “no great answers,” which would mean the Giants are doing something right.
Why the Giants wouldn’t want Anthony Santander
Santander turned 30 in October. Here are his on-base percentages over the last four seasons:
2021: .286
2022: .318
2023: .325
2024: .308
He’s looking for a five-year contract, and he’s almost certain to get one. It will be a disaster by the end of it. It’s a little dispiriting to think that Santander is doomed to be “guy who annoys an entire fanbase,” when all he’s trying to do is get his fair-market value. But when it turns ugly for Santander — and it always does for a hitter with his skill set — it’ll be spectacularly ugly. He’s actually pretty good at making contact when he swings, but his chase rates are egregious. If he loses a fraction of a millisecond of bat speed, suddenly the 40 homers turn into 20 homers, and the .310-ish OBP becomes something a lot less palatable. It doesn’t have to happen in the next three years, but it doesn’t not have to happen starting next season, either.
Of course, this was also my argument against the Mariners signing Nelson Cruz, and he hit 267 homers in the nine seasons after that. In a career filled with miscalculations and bad takes, that was one of my worst, and here I am, reusing it a decade later. But Cruz is an anomaly, a historical freak. You get plenty of supporting examples when it comes to one-tool players not aging gracefully.
Santander’s arm is solid, so maybe he’s closer to a one-and-a-half-tool player, but we can all agree that if the ball isn’t going over the fence, he’s not contributing. He’s a poor defensive outfielder, and he’s in the bottom fifth in the league for sprint speed. He’ll never hit for average, and he’ll have a chance to dip under the Mendoza Line by the time his contract ends.
Santander was also extended a qualifying offer, which means the Giants would lose another pair of draft picks (likely their third- and sixth-rounders) and some international bonus money for signing him. The odds are in favor of Santander giving the Giants more value next April than a third- and sixth-round pick will give them over their combined careers, but a great way to whiff on every draft pick is to not have draft picks. It’s a consideration, especially for a team that’s stuck between contending and rebuilding like the Giants.
Verdict
Just how confident are you that the Giants are a bat away from contending? This isn’t a trick question. Maybe you’re of the mind that one more contributor would be a tipping point for the Giants, and the residual effects would trickle down and get them in the top half of NL lineups, if not top quarter. Don’t let anyone shame you for this belief; it’s almost reasonable.
If that’s where you’re at, plug your nose and yell “cannonball” as you jump into the rocky waters below. This is the easiest way for the Giants to turn what was a mediocre lineup in 2024 into one that scores a lot more runs than expected.
But the Giants aren’t just a bat away from feeling more comfortable about their chances to contend. They’re a player away from feeling more comfortable. Maybe two. Maybe five. If this were the only remaining move for the Giants, it wouldn’t just come with a lot of trust in Santander — it would come with a lot of trust in Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison and all of the youngsters behind them.
You can play the “one more hitter” game, but there are multiple paths to feeling more comfortable. One more player with a chance to make an impact will go a long way, and it doesn’t have to be a hitter. Maybe there’s a way to get that impact pitcher and a player like Paul Goldschmidt, while still staying within the budget. I’m typically not a “spread the money around” type of person, but it makes sense when the 40-homer potential of Santander comes with a lot of potential downside, too.
Stick with the pitching-first mentality the Giants are apparently pursuing, and hope for a minor-yet-legitimate upgrade to the lineup in concert with an addition to the rotation. Dingers are important, but so are innings. The Giants could use Santander’s one tool — boy, could they — but not if it’s the last cherry on top of the roster sundae.
(Photo: Paul Rutherford / USA Today)
