Premier League top five betting: Manchester City in poll position, Arsenal in trouble?

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With Liverpool already crowned champions and the relegation battle concluded, the spotlight shifts to the chaos unfurling among the teams vying for European qualification. In an otherwise quiet May, just four points separate five clubs still fighting to secure Champions League football next season.

With only three matches left and momentum shifting week-by-week, welcome to your latest top-five stock report: a pulse check on the ever-changing odds of the teams chasing late-season glory.

What’s changed since last week?

One week in football can feel like a lifetime. Seven days ago, Man City looked like one of the most likely teams to claim a top-five spot behind Liverpool and Arsenal, but now Chelsea are charging hard. The Blues’ 3-1 dismantling of Liverpool – partly aided by the Reds’ lax approach to the game after winning the title last weekend – has cut their odds from 1/1 to 1/5.

Fortunately, Pep Guardiola’s troops remain in a commanding position. After back-to-back wins over Wolves and Aston Villa, their odds shifted to 1/16 from 1/10. Meanwhile, Newcastle, who drew 1-1 with Brighton on Sunday, have stalled, with their odds drifting to 1/4 after being 2/9 following a win over Ipswich on Matchday 34.

Forest are the week’s biggest disappointment. A 1-0 win at Tottenham two weeks ago had them weighing in at 1/3. However, since then, the Tricky Trees have failed to win three straight games in all competitions, including a home loss to Brentford and a disappointing draw with Crystal Palace. Their odds have dwindled to 8/5, suggesting the bookmakers have lost faith in their storybook narrative.

Villa are on a sneaky rise. Their hard-fought 1-0 win over Fulham on Saturday brings them within reach of Chelsea and Forest in the standings. Since their loss to Man City in April, Unai Emery’s side have seen their odds shorten from 4/1 to 2/1. So, while they remain outsiders in seventh place, they’re still very much in the conversation.

Find more on the latest top-five Premier League betting trends from Betfair, click this link.

What’s going on this week?

The latest odds reflect a shift in momentum following a weekend of high-stakes results – including a shocking upset at the Emirates. Here’s how things stand heading into the weekend’s fixtures:

Arsenal (3/10)

A few weeks ago, the Gunners were a lock for second. But now, they’re dangerously close to relinquishing their grip. Mikel Arteta’s men dropped points in four of their last five league games, including a shocking 2-1 home defeat to Bournemouth on Saturday – their first-ever loss to the Cherries at the Emirates.

The second setback of the week came against Paris Saint-Germain in Wednesday’s Champions League semi-final second-leg at the Parc des Princes. Goals from Fabián Ruiz and Achraf Hakimi ensured a 3-1 sweep for the Parisians, who’ll face Internazionale in May’s final. With a trip to Anfield on Sunday looming, the chances of a third failure in seven days is worryingly high.

Sure, Liverpool won’t be playing their best lineup, but it’s hard to believe Arne Slot’s side would easily allow a loss at home to their closest rivals. Additionally, Man City are hot on Arsenal’s heels, and if the North Londoners don’t turn things around, they might just bottle their second-place finish.

Manchester City (1/50)

City’s win over Wolves last Friday was crucial for their top-five push, and the bookmakers agree, pricing them at 1/50 to nail a Champions League spot. The Citizens’ focus may be shifting toward next Saturday’s FA Cup final against Palace, but expect Guardiola to demand a strong finish from his players. A trip to the south coast to face Simon Rusk’s relegated Southampton should be fairly straightforward. But Bournemouth – fresh off that Arsenal win – could pose a real threat the week after.

Newcastle (1/4)

Newcastle have quietly stayed consistent these past few weeks. Their draw at Brighton kept them in the top four, but a tricky stretch of fixtures lie ahead. The Magpies host Chelsea this week in a clash with huge implications for both sides. A top-four finish is still on the table, but Eddie Howe’s men will need to deliver in back-to-back marquee matches, with a trip to Arsenal soon after.

Chelsea (1/3)

Chelsea couldn’t have asked for a better weekend. The Blues breezed past Liverpool and now are level on points with Newcastle. Enzo Maresca’s men are surging at the right time and face a manageable schedule – especially if Manchester United continue prioritizing their Europa League run over the league.

Nottingham Forest (8/5)

Forest’s chances took a hit after dropping points against Crystal Palace on Monday, but they still remain in the mix. However, their inferior goal difference compared to their contenders means they’ll likely need to finish with more points than at least one rival. Their game against Leicester City on Sunday is winnable, but a showdown with Chelsea on the final day could decide their fate.

Aston Villa (3/1)

While they have a hill to climb, Villa aren’t out of it yet. Their win over Fulham last Saturday kept them in the hunt, but they’re three points behind Forest and face a testing run-in: Bournemouth this weekend, then Tottenham and Man Utd. A win on Saturday is a must, or else it’s tricky to see how Villa can secure a Champions League berth for a second straight year.

Our predictions for the final stretch of the season

As the campaign nears its finale, the path forward is anything but plain sailing. Some clubs enjoy smoother run-ins, while others navigate tactical minefields. Add mounting injuries to the mix, and the stage is set for a blockbuster finish.

Arsenal are particularly affected. Kai Havertz is a doubt with a thigh issue, Takehiro Tomiyasu is still nursing a knee problem, and Gabriel Magalhães remains sidelined with a thigh injury. Gabriel Jesus is also short of full match fitness – a blow for Arteta, who desperately needs attacking options.

This weekend’s fixtures could start to separate contenders from pretenders. Man City should have little trouble against relegated Southampton, while Arsenal host Liverpool in what may set the tone for the final few weeks. Should the Gunners slip up again, they’ll be giving up second in the league.

The marquee matchup of the weekend, however, is Newcastle against Chelsea. Both sides remain firmly in the race, and a win for either would be a major statement. Expect Cole Palmer, who has rediscovered his form, to play a key role. After a relatively quiet stretch, Palmer was electric against Liverpool, scoring and assisting in a performance that reaffirmed his status as Chelsea’s creative linchpin.

All in all, expect the bookmakers to continue to tweak the odds as the last lap in the race to secure European football begins.