Phillies vs. Mets 2024 NLDS preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will meet in the postseason for the first time ever in a National League Division Series that promises to have plenty of juice. The Mets are riding a wave of momentum after a strong second half of the season, an epic postseason-clinching victory against the Atlanta and a smash-and-grab elimination-game win over Milwaukee in the wild-card round. The Phillies posted the second-best record in the majors and led the NL East every day from May 3 to season’s end en route to their first division title in 13 years. The best-of-five series begins Saturday in Philadelphia, with the winner advancing to face the Los Angeles Dodgers or San Diego Padres in the NLCS.

Game times

Game 1: Mets at Phillies, Saturday, Oct. 5, 4:08 p.m. ET, Fox

Game 2: Mets at Phillies, Sunday, Oct. 6, 4:08 ET, FS1

Game 3: Phillies at Mets, Tuesday, Oct. 8, Time TBD, FOX/FS1

Game 4: Phillies at Mets, Wednesday, Oct. 9, Time TBD, FOX/FS1 (if necessary)

Game 5: Mets at Phillies, Friday, Oct. 11, Time TBD, FOX/FS1 (if necessary)

Pitching matchups

This one should be easy to figure out. The Phillies’ pitching staff is clearly better than the Mets’ staff.

Philadelphia has the best or second-best starting rotation and the best or second-best bullpen in the playoffs, depending on how exactly you put together each postseason “trusted pitcher group.” Zack Wheeler will challenge Chris Sale for the National League Cy Young Award, Aaron Nola had a great season (and was great last postseason with a 2.35 ERA) and Cristopher Sánchez (with his super changeup) and Ranger Suárez (with his five-pitch mix and command) would probably all own the advantage over any starter the Mets can put out there. Plus the Phillies have the benefit of setting their rotation.

The Mets have gotten a lot out of veterans Sean Manaea (particularly post-arm slot change), Luis Severino (especially with the improved fastballs and added sweepers) and Jose Quintana (who’s throwing the four-seam less than ever). Tylor Megill is their wild card, and he’s a lot better when he’s sitting 96-plus mph with the four-seamer (as he did in Game 1 of Monday’s doubleheader against the Braves). José Buttó, Ryne Stanek and Reed Garrett have been good foils for Edwin Díaz, who is a strong closer even in one of his weaker seasons.

But even in the bullpen, the Phillies have answers. Carlos Estévez didn’t miss a beat after coming over in a trade deadline deal from the Angels, Jeff Hoffman might be the most underappreciated reliever in the game if it weren’t for lefty Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering’s unique sweeper is one of the best pitches in the game. In sum, you should take the Phillies’ ’pen.

This one should be easy to figure out. But they played to a near standstill in the regular season, with the Phillies winning seven of 13 games, and the Mets own a slight 555-525 edge all time in the regular season. They’ll figure out who’s better if we give them another 1,000 games, probably. Or five! — Eno Sarris 

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Why the Phillies will win

The low-scoring wild-card round demonstrated the power of great pitching in October, and the Phillies have one of the deepest pitching staffs remaining. It is deeper than New York’s. The Phillies’ pitchers have experience and health. Wheeler, Sánchez and Nola are a formidable trio in a five-game series. The Phillies trust five relievers. They have two All-Star firemen in Hoffman and Strahm who can pitch in every high-stress situation.

The Phillies, who have never encountered the challenges of staying sharp during a first-round bye, had to be thrilled the Brewers and Mets went three games. New York’s pitching showed some holes in Milwaukee. To secure the series win, the Mets went to presumptive NLDS Game 1 starter David Peterson in the ninth inning of Game 3. New York might have to dip deeper into its rotation, going to fifth starter Megill, for Game 1 of the NLDS. They’ve ridden Díaz hard for the last week. All of that added stress is cumulative.

The Phillies will have to push back against New York’s momentum. They won 54 games at Citizens Bank Park in 2024. They believe it is a considerable advantage; maybe it’s less of a factor against a divisional opponent. The Mets have vibes, a mighty force in October.

All of those things are intangibles. There will be questions about the Phillies’ lineup until they prove otherwise, but this week’s wild-card games proved that all it takes is timely hitting. The wounds from last October’s NLCS run deep within the Phillies clubhouse. They were the better team on paper then and are the better team now, so nothing is ever taken for granted. That’s a decent mindset to have entering this October. — Matt Gelb 

Why the Mets will win

Comfort against Philadelphia’s best pitchers. Over the last three seasons, the Mets have faced either Nola or Wheeler 15 times — and won 12 of those games. (Nola has pitched to a 4.25 ERA in those games, Wheeler a 4.79.) The Phillies are 104-68 in all other regular-season starts made by the pair. Steal a game at Citizens Bank Park against either of those two (assuming the Phillies stick with Nola in Game 2), and the Mets would return to a raucous Citi Field — likely a far cry from the timid crowds of the club’s last postseason appearance in 2022 — with the chance to end the series at home.

Toward the end of the season, the Mets showcased the diversity of their offense. New York hits for more power than it has in recent seasons: Its 207 home runs ranked sixth in baseball, one spot ahead of the Phillies, and power obviously plays in the postseason. But the Mets can also manufacture runs when necessary, thanks to the contact skills of José Iglesias and Francisco Lindor and the speed of Brandon Nimmo and Tyrone Taylor. They’ve recently developed a penchant for building big innings that snowball on an opponent, exploding for five or six in a frame to totally change a game. — Tim Britton 

Check back later for series predictions from The Athletic’s MLB staff.

Phillies player spotlight: Trea Turner, SS

There is a lasting image from last October’s bittersweet NLCS Game 7: Turner waving at an off-speed pitch out of the strike zone. It wasn’t one in particular; there were too many to count. Turner was hitless in his final 15 at-bats of that series versus Arizona. That came after an NLDS against Atlanta in which he went 8-for-17 with four extra-base hits.

Turner is a star, but he is streakier than most star players. He finished this season on a decent run. But Turner was susceptible to chasing pitches all year. When he’s hot, he’s unstoppable. Turner hit 38 percent of his homers in 12 days during July. Then he hit two homers from July 20 to Aug. 30. Turner wasn’t always looking to steal bases in 2024. Often, he dialed it back while running to preserve his legs.

Now, there is nothing to hold back. — Gelb 

Mets player spotlight: Pete Alonso, 1B

How about that for an about-face? In what could have been his last at-bat as a Met, with fans clamoring louder and louder about moving on this winter, Alonso prolonged his tenure and the Mets’ season with the biggest swing of his life. It snapped an extended slump — he hadn’t collected an extra-base hit in two weeks — and could spark the kind of hot streak that’s eluded him this season. Alonso’s dealt with the pressure of a platform season all year; maybe this eases that burden. As Lindor said, “If Pete does that in the postseason, he’s going to get paid.”

Manager Carlos Mendoza has said all season that Alonso’s bat can carry an offense. Alonso possesses more power than anyone else in New York’s lineup, and he’s absolutely owned Nola over their careers: a .320 average, .370 on-base percentage and .680 slugging percentage in 54 career plate appearances, which include five home runs. — Britton 

Tale of the Tape

Phillies must-reads

In his first base office, Bryce Harper pays it forward with MLB’s young hitters

The mindset that carried the Phillies to their first NL East title in 13 years

The essence of Kyle Schwarber, the Phillies’ everyman slugger with an empathetic spirit

Nick Castellanos’ power of perseverance: How an Opening Day idea sparked a 162-game season

Mets must-reads

Pete Alonso sparks Mets’ rally over Brewers in Game 3, advance to NLDS: Takeaways

Scenes from a Mets celebration: ‘This is the standard’

In an instant classic, Mets clinch playoff berth with win over Braves

Inside the Mets’ revival: Grimace, OMG and a turnaround no one saw coming

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(Top image: Francisco Lindor: Rich von Biberstein / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; Bryce Harper: Harry How / Getty Images)