Phillies notes: Rotation plans, outfield scenarios, roster talk, and is the bullpen 'set'?

Jesús Luzardo’s phone buzzed on a Sunday morning last month, just before he hopped onto a friend’s boat to go fishing. The lefty is only 27, but this was a familiar call. He’d been traded for the third time in his career. The first two trades were more jarring.

“This time,” Luzardo said, “I could kind of see the writing on the wall.”

The Phillies are excited because, two years ago, Luzardo started Game 1 of a postseason series and now he’s slotted to be their No. 5 starter. “You would never call him just a fifth starter,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said. “He’s better than that.” Luzardo has enormous upside; whether he has the volume to reach it remains unknown.

“We just think he is a big upgrade for us,” Dombrowski said.

The Phillies received 171 1/3 innings in 39 starts last season from pitchers not named Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez or Ranger Suárez. Those 171 1/3 innings yielded a 6.36 ERA — even when including Spencer Turnbull’s 1.78 ERA in 35 1/3 innings — with a whopping 42 homers allowed. That experience has shaped the Phillies’ offseason.

They entered it thinking about offensive upgrades. Then, seven weeks in, they doubled down on the rotation.

“Well,” Dombrowski said, “I can’t say it was a focus from the beginning of the offseason because I felt that we had four quality starting pitchers.”

Now they have five, with top prospect Andrew Painter slated to debut later in the summer. They signed Joe Ross to a $4 million deal as a swingman who could pop into the rotation if needed. They still have Taijuan Walker on the payroll.

There was a time last May when the Phillies had too many starters. That was fleeting.

The current arrangement could allow them to maximize Luzardo, Suárez and Painter. Luzardo has logged more than 101 innings only once in his big-league career.

Luzardo missed time in 2024 with elbow and back injuries. He said he feels 100 percent now; he’s on a normal offseason throwing program.

“There’s always ways to improve,” Luzardo said. “Health was the biggest one. I think it hindered me in my ability to do these other things. But now being back to being healthy, I think that there are certain things that I was doing in ’22 and ’23 maybe in the way of attacking guys. Different little things I could do in my game planning, attacking these hitters. I would say health was probably the root of the problem. And now that that’s gone, we can get back to what it was.”

Even so, the Phillies have paths to padding Luzardo’s workload. They have been successful in recent seasons because their rotations have pitched deep into games. Their starters have thrown 903, 899 and 896 2/3 innings in the past three seasons. Make 900 the target again in 2025.

If Wheeler and Nola each hit 180 innings — a reduction from last year — along with another 180 from Sánchez, that leaves 360 innings to cover. Budget Suárez and Luzardo for a palatable 140 innings apiece, then there’s 80 left for Painter.

There will be hiccups to every pitching plan. But, on paper, this one is hardly unreasonable.

Painter will not pitch in games during spring training, Dombrowski said. He will throw on the side. By adding Luzardo and Ross, the Phillies feel less pressure to alter their Painter plan.

“We’re going to push the innings back,” Dombrowski said. “I don’t think it’s going to change. Andrew understands the plan. We think it’s a good plan. He’ll build up at some point through the minors. … We’re going to save a lot of his innings until we get to July-ish for the big-league level.”

Maybe it’s June. Maybe it’s August. Maybe the Phillies have too many starters and it requires a creative approach. They’ll probably need everyone.

Enough in the bullpen?

A skilled rotation has reduced the bullpen strain in recent years, and the Phillies are counting on that again in 2025. With Ross aboard, they have seven spots set. Jordan Romano, Orion Kerkering, José Ruiz and Ross are the righties. Matt Strahm, José Alvarado and Tanner Banks are the lefties.

It’s not the most flexible unit; only Banks and Kerkering have minor-league options. The Phillies could use the unclaimed eighth spot to churn through middle relievers.

The Phillies are making some assumptions; every team does with its bullpen. Romano has to prove his health. Alvarado needs to generate more whiffs. Ruiz, a middle reliever last season, has to handle bigger spots. Strahm and Kerkering have to avoid regression.

“I think it’s pretty well set at this time,” Dombrowski said of the bullpen.

Jeff Hoffman, a trusted presence in the Phillies bullpen, is still a free agent. Hoffman is said to be seeking a deal similar to the one Clay Holmes scored with the New York Mets. He signed for $38 million over three years; the Mets plan to try Holmes as a starter. He’s been a reliever for his entire big-league career.

The Phillies could have reunited with Hoffman in a hybrid role — as a starter for the first few months, then back to the bullpen whenever Painter arrives. They chose Luzardo instead. It’s unclear whether they ever discussed that scenario with Hoffman; the Phillies have believed Hoffman’s best spot is as a late-inning reliever.

Hoffman is part of a larger freeze in the bullpen market. Many of the best free-agent relievers have yet to sign. Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Carlos Estévez and Kenley Jansen are looking for jobs. If one of them encounters a shrinking market, the Phillies could pounce, although that’s a long shot.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Phillies create bullpen depth from within should a need arise. They have a glut of young rotation depth stashed on their 40-man roster. Mick Abel, Seth Johnson, Moisés Chace, Jean Cabrera and Alan Rangel — all on the roster — project to begin the season in the minors. Tyler Phillips, out of options, is still on the roster.

Maybe Chace or Cabrera shifts into the bullpen during the season if the Phillies believe they could help the big-league team in 2025. Michael Mercado, also on the 40-man roster, could return to a bullpen role that better suits him.

Outfield projecting

Last season, the franchise that knew Max Kepler best limited his looks at left-handed pitching more than ever. The Minnesota Twins did not view Kepler as an everyday player. He logged 82 plate appearances against lefties, his fewest in a full big-league season. He produced a .721 OPS in those chances — about league-average production.

The Phillies view Kepler as their regular left fielder in 2025.

“If you start going around the club,” Dombrowski said, “it’s hard to platoon everywhere.”

Dombrowski rattled off names. There’s two catchers, the four regular infielders plus Edmundo Sosa as the top reserve. Kyle Schwarber is the designated hitter. Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh are in the outfield. That’s 11 with Kepler and Johan Rojas makes 12. The last man, to Dombrowski, is someone who can play on the infield.

So Kepler or Marsh has to take down everyday time in the outfield.

This is where the Phillies have left the door open to various scenarios. They can seek to platoon one of the lefty-hitting outfielders. They just don’t have to decide which one.

Marsh, who is five years younger than Kepler, has been the subject of internal debate all offseason. It is the same debate the Phillies have had since acquiring Marsh in a trade with the Los Angeles Angels during the 2022 season. To this point, he looks like a platoon player, though a productive one. The Phillies have said they believe he is more than that, but their actions have demonstrated otherwise.

Still, some corners of the organization think Marsh could benefit from a prolonged shot at hitting lefty pitching without having to look over his shoulder after every failed at-bat.

They could give it time before committing to a set outfield arrangement. Marsh and Kepler could play with Rojas spelling each of them once a week. Then, if the Phillies decide either Marsh or Kepler needs to be platooned, Rojas steps into a larger role. Manager Rob Thomson can play the hot hand, provided there is one.

The last spot

That 13th player Dombrowski alluded to will come from an internal source.

“We’ve gone out and signed Whit Merrifield and Josh Harrison the last couple of years,” Dombrowski said. “Really, for us, we’ve talked internally about it. We’re going to give these guys an opportunity to do that.”

That’s good news for Weston Wilson, who should be considered the favorite to break camp with the Phillies because he’s a righty hitter who can play all over the field. The Phillies have Buddy Kennedy and Kody Clemens, who are out of options and cannot be sent to the minors without clearing waivers. Maybe Kennedy makes it close enough and the Phillies opt to preserve depth by sending Wilson to Triple A.

Clemens, 28, is a player the Phillies like. But given how stacked the roster is with left-handed hitters, it’s hard to see how Clemens fits. If he has a good camp, the Phillies could trade him before Opening Day.

In an ideal world, the Phillies would keep all three reserves in the organization. That might be difficult.

“We think all three of them have the capabilities,” Dombrowski said, “to play at the big-league level this year.”

(Top photo of Jesús Luzardo: Brad Penner / Imagn Images)