Every year, we assemble a panel — of a veteran NHL executive, scout and coach — to make playoff predictions. We grant them anonymity in exchange for candor. Predicting a playoff sweep is generally not for the faint of heart, but in our first-round preview, our executive correctly suggested the New York Rangers would take a broom to the Washington Capitals and win in four.
The Rangers’ Metropolitan Division rivals, the Carolina Hurricanes, also made short work of their first-round opponent, the New York Islanders, setting up an intriguing second-round meeting between two teams that were separated by only three points in the standings.
Because both teams won their first series so easily, the NHL took the unusual step of starting Round 2 Sunday afternoon before the final game of the opening round between the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights was completed hours later. Our panel made their selections for the Rangers-Carolina series before Game 1 was played, a 4-3 win for New York.
A general rule of thumb in the NHL is that the first round of the playoffs is usually the best round. That hopefully won’t be the case this year. The Stars-Golden Knights series went the distance and was a barnburner on every level. Though not as aesthetically pleasing, the Boston Bruins–Toronto Maple Leafs series had many fascinating twists and turns before the Bruins emerged with a dramatic Game 7 overtime win to advance.
But overall, the opening round wasn’t nearly as satisfying as in past years. Now that a couple of the overmatched pretenders are gone, let’s hope Round 2 shapes up nicely with four compelling and distinctive matchups set to unfold.
Let’s examine.
Eastern Conference
New York Rangers vs. Carolina Hurricanes
It’s a classic pick ‘em series; little sets the two teams apart. Both starting goalies, New York’s Igor Shesterkin and Carolina’s Frederik Andersen, faced challenging times this season — Shesterkin got off to a flat start, Andersen dealt with a blood clot issue. But when it mattered both were excellent. Special teams were close, too. The Rangers get a lot of kudos for their play with the man advantage because they were No. 3 in the regular season with a 26.4 percent success rate. Statistically, Carolina was slightly better, No. 2 at 26.9 percent. As for penalty killing, Carolina ranked first (86.4 percent) and the Rangers third (84.5 percent). Whoever wins the special teams battle will almost certainly win the series.
All three of our experts picked the Rangers in seven, but none could identify a substantive edge one way or the other — other than the fact somebody has to win, and somebody has to lose.
“That’s exactly where I’m at,” said our scout. “They’re two really good teams. They both had an easy first round, so there are no advantages there. The Rangers, I think they’re a little better built for the playoffs than Carolina and I like their back end better. They’re big and hard to play against. It’s a well-rounded defense, with a little bit of everything. And Carolina’s a bit banged up on the back end (missing Brett Pesce).”
Our coach thought: “You can flip a coin. The goaltending is where it could sway. The other thing would be special teams. Both those teams had really good special teams, on both sides. Which one is going to continue for both? Or is one going to get exposed? If so, that would be the difference. There’s something about the Rangers, when we played them, just the way they play, their depth, I just think there’s a little more skill there.”
As for our executive, he noted, before Mika Zibanejad had a big night in the opener, that while “most of the focus on the Rangers offense will be based around what Artemi Panarin does, I don’t agree. I think the key is whether Zibanejad and Chris Kreider continue to be big playoff producers. In 31 games over the last two playoff years, plus this year’s first round, Zibanejad is a point-a-game player, while Kreider’s managed 28.
“If they score at that same pace in this series, and Panarin lives up to his big-time billing, the Rangers will have more than enough offense.”
Executive: Rangers in 7
Scout: Rangers in 7
Coach: Rangers in 7
Consensus: Rangers advance
Rangers forward Mika Zibanejad celebrates after scoring his second goal in Game 1 of the second round against the Hurricanes. (Wendell Cruz / USA Today)
Florida Panthers vs. Boston Bruins
A rematch of last year’s riveting opening round when the Panthers, a heavy underdog, upset the Bruins, who’d been coming off a record-setting regular season. A year ago, the regular-season gap between the two teams was a staggering 43 points. This year, the Panthers are the favorites.
Florida, last year’s Stanley Cup finalist, looked like a hungry team in a hard-fought opening-round victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning and, like last year, found ways to win close games. That’s the mark of a potential champion.
While Florida’s been sitting at home resting, Boston-Toronto went down to the wire, with the Bruins forced to expend oodles of physical and emotional energy before it was finally settled.
Is there a potential for a post-Toronto letdown?
“If they hadn’t played them last year, I might agree there could be,” answered our coach. “But I think, right now, any letdown is going to be short-lived, and the immediate thought process is, ‘last year, we didn’t get it done — and it’s only seven games, so you can’t give any of them away.’ The leadership in Boston is top notch and starting on the road will help them focus. They’re going into a hostile environment against a good team and they know what Florida’s capable of. Their attention is going to be where it needs to be.”
Our scout was more forceful in his assessment, noting bluntly that Florida is better than they were a year ago. But Boston isn’t as good, so why would the result be any different? “I’m tempted to say Florida in four, but I think (Jeremy) Swayman could win a game or two for Boston, just by himself. So, I’m saying Florida in five.
Our executive made it unanimous for the Panthers, even though he thought the Bruins defense could match up easily with Florida’s. And in goal, Swayman was, without question, the MVP of the Toronto series. “I give the advantage to Florida offensively, a slight advantage to Boston on the blue line, and the goaltending is a tossup. I feel the biggest advantage is that Florida is starting the series healthy and rested, while the Bruins will really have to dig deep to find a way to win this series given the schedule the way it is and that they have to start on the road.”
Executive: Panthers in 6
Scout: Panthers in 5
Coach: Panthers in 7
Consensus: Panthers advance
Western Conference
Vancouver Canucks vs. Edmonton Oilers
Our executive nicely summarized the challenge of predicting playoff results given the way Vancouver eliminated Nashville in six games to advance to the second round.
Originally, everyone focused on the goaltending matchup, which began as the Canucks’ Thatcher Demko vs. the Predators’ Juuse Saros. Made perfect sense. Then, when Demko was injured, it became Casey DeSmith vs. Saros. When DeSmith was briefly unavailable, the Canucks then turned to a goaltender who’d made nine previous NHL starts, none in the playoffs. He later recorded his first career shutout in the elimination game.
Just as everyone imagined.
“When you look at Vancouver,” our executive said, “nobody would have predicted that they would beat a tough Nashville team despite having only six players score a goal, by scoring only 13 goals overall in the series, by having to play three goalies, and that the organization’s third goalie, Arturs Silovs, would end up being the MVP of the series.”
Still, that was then.
Now comes Edmonton; only the third time in history the two Western Canadian rivals have met in the playoffs.
Edmonton advanced relatively easily compared to Vancouver, eliminating Los Angeles in five games primarily because of exceptional special teams play. The Oilers scored nine times with the man advantage, while the Kings couldn’t score any. So that’ll be the challenge for Vancouver — to stay out of the penalty box as much as possible, and when they inevitably do take penalties, to kill them off.
“I think Edmonton’s going to take them pretty quick,” said our scout. “Same reason I picked them in the first round. That power play is clicking, and McDavid is on a mission. Their top guys are hungry, and they can see a path forward there. And then I think Vancouver got a little lucky to beat Nashville, to be honest. That game where they came back — I had that one in the bank for Nashville. Overall, I wasn’t overly impressed with Vancouver. I just think Edmonton is on a roll, and that power play is so deadly.”
The Canucks won all four regular-season games against the Oilers, which should give them some confidence — though Edmonton was a different team after the coaching change from Jay Woodcroft to Kris Knoblauch. Vancouver had quality first-round performances from their two ex-Flames, Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov, both of whom will bring a Battle of Alberta chip on their shoulders to this series.
Canucks forward Elias Pettersson finished Round 1 with zero goals and three assists. Will he perform better against the Oilers? (Bob Frid / USA Today)
Redemption, according to our executive, will be on the minds of some of Vancouver’s first-round underperformers — especially Elias Pettersson, who should have more room to operate against the Oilers than against Nashville’s smothering defensive coverage.
Our coach went out on a limb and picked Vancouver.
“I think Vancouver’s going to give them a run, and I’ll tell you why. I’m still not sure about (Oilers goalie Stuart) Skinner and I’m not sure about their defense. Yes, their power play is great, but in the faceoff circle, the Canucks have a right-handed shot in Lindholm who is good on the draws. I think that can make a big difference. I think that’s where they can get them — in the faceoff circle, because if the Canucks start with the puck all the time, then Connor and the rest of them have to work to get it back. And Lindholm is starting to play. Connor had 12 points, nine on the power play. If you don’t shut that power play down, you can’t beat them. But I like the size of Vancouver’s defense — and they can go toe-to-toe with Edmonton, one to four lines. I’m going with Vancouver. I think they have a chance.”
Executive: Oilers in 6
Scout: Oilers in 5
Coach: Canucks in 7
Consensus: Oilers advance
Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche
Goaltending provided the biggest surprises in the Avalanche’s opening-round win over the Jets — both Colorado’s and Winnipeg’s. The Avalanche’s Alexandar Georgiev was thought to be the weak link on an otherwise powerful team, and he looked exactly that in the opener, a 7-6 Colorado loss. But from there, Georgiev settled down and gave them solid play the rest of the way. Meanwhile, Connor Hellebuyck, a Vezina Trophy finalist and likely winner, gave up 24 goals in five games under Colorado’s offensive onslaught, which translated into a garish 5.23 goals-against average and .870 save percentage. Not the outcome you would have imagined.
Colorado’s stars came to play. Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen each had nine points in the five games while Valeri Nichushkin had seven goals and Artturi Lehkonen managed five. So finding a way to shut down that potent Colorado offense will be the No. 1 challenge for the Stars and Jake Oettinger, who was exceptional in the seven-game first-round series win over the defending Stanley Cup champions.
Our scout doesn’t think it’ll happen. He cast his vote for the Avs.
“I’m picking Colorado,” he said. “I didn’t pick them to beat Winnipeg, but watching them in the first round, similar to Edmonton, that power play and their high-end skill looks just so deadly. They’re so good at home. I think the rest really helps Colorado because they rely so much on the three guys who play a lot — MacKinnon, Makar and Rantanen — who are going to have five, six days off before they start.”
But our coach and executive think differently and like the Stars.
From our executive: “The fact that Colorado has had seven days off after easily beating Winnipeg will help them in this series, especially early in the series. Dallas, on the other hand, has to go straight into Round 2 on Tuesday night and then play every other night throughout the series. Still, Dallas does not have to travel for the first two games which will make it easier to recover from the hard fought series with Vegas.”
And our coach added this postscript: “The motivation for Dallas is Joe Pavelski. They know this is it for him. The kid that stays at his place (Wyatt Johnson) is playing his ass off. Like the rest of them, they’re motivated to push that team as far as they can because of Pav.”
Executive: Stars in 7
Scout: Avalanche in 6
Coach: Stars in 7
Consensus: Stars advance
(Top photo of Sam Lafferty facing off against Connor McDavid: Derek Cain / Getty Images)
