NFL Week 16 fantasy football, betting cheat sheet: Niners RB Isaac Guerendo ailing, may sit Sunday

Welcome to the Week 16 fantasy and betting cheat sheet, a one-stop shop for The Athletic’s game previews, injury and weather updates, and expert analysis. Bookmark this page and check back often, as we offer regular updates on Thursday and Friday to assist with fantasy lineups and betting decisions. We’ll come back with a special Sunday cheat sheet that morning as well.

Player rankings referenced in this article are current as of Dec. 19. For updated rankings, see the “Fantasy football player rankings” section.

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Last updated: Noon ET, Dec. 19

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Injury news

Updated through Noon ET, Dec. 19

Thursday Night Football

Hayden Hurst, TE, LAC (hip) — Questionable
Will Dissly, TE, LAC (shoulder) — Out
Dissly has been ruled out of Thursday’s game with a hip injury. While Stone Smartt has done well this season as Dissly’s backup, the Chargers plan to activate Hurst from injured reserve to play against the Broncos, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Smartt is still the tight end to roster until Hurst’s role on offense is clarified.

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, DEN (quadriceps) — Out
McLaughlin has been ruled out, so Javonte Williams and Audric Estime will share the load in the backfield. Maybe one of them becomes fantasy relevant this week.

Saturday

George Pickens, WR, PIT (hamstring) — Questionable
Pickens didn’t play last week and did not participate in Wednesday’s practice. In Week 15’s loss to the Eagles, Calvin Austin III led all receivers with five receptions and 65 yards, but Pickens is the only natural fantasy starter among Pittsburgh’s receiving corps.

Justin Fields, QB, PIT (abdomen) — Questionable
Fields did not practice Wednesday. No longer the starter, the fantasy impact is minimal, though it would be even less likely that Russell Wilson gets pulled mid-game if Fields sits.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC (ankle) — Expected to play
After injuring his ankle in Week 15, Mahomes is expected to play Saturday against the Texans and is not on the Chiefs’ injury report.

Hollywood Brown, WR, KC (shoulder) — Questionable
Brown was a full participant in Thursday’s practice and could play this week, giving Mahomes (or backup Carson Wentz) another playmaker alongside Xavier Worthy and DeAndre Hopkins.

Joe Mixon, RB, HOU (ankle) — Questionable
Mixon was limited in Wednesday’s practice. His backups, Dameon Pierce and Dare Ogunbowale, will likely share carries if Mixon misses time, but that seems unlikely at this point.

Rashod Bateman, WR, BAL (foot) — Questionable
Nelson Agholor, WR, BAL (concussion) — Questionable
Bateman was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice, and Agholor did not practice due to a concussion. Zay Flowers is Lamar Jackson’s top target, followed by Bateman and TE Mark Andrews.

Sunday 1 p.m.

Joe Burrow, QB, CIN (wrist/knee)  — Questionable
Burrow was limited in Wednesday’s practice, according to The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr. It’s early in the week, so there’s no need to worry or even mention backup Jake Browning.

Tee Higgins, WR, CIN (knee) — Questionable
Higgins was a limited participant on Wednesday due to a knee injury and rest. Higgins likely sees the field Sunday, but if he doesn’t TE Mike Gesicki could benefit. There’s no need to turn to Andrei Iosivas during the fantasy football playoffs.

David Montgomery, RB, DET (knee) — Out
Montgomery is likely to be placed on injured reserve but is getting a third opinion on his MCL injury first, according to the Lions’ official site. Head coach Dan Campbell said Detroit will turn to Craig Reynolds and “potentially” rookie Sione Vaki to take on expanded roles behind Jahmyr Gibbs.

Nick Chubb, RB, CHI (foot) — Out / injured reserve
Chubb was placed on injured reserve after breaking his foot. Jerome Ford should lead the backfield for the remainder of the season.

Cedric Tillman, WR, CLE (concussion) — Questionable
David Njoku, TE, CLE (hamstring) — Questionable
Tillman was a limited participant on Wednesday, while Njoku did not practice. Jerry Jeudy has been the Cleveland wide receiver to roster lately, averaging 22.45 PPR points per game since Week 9; Njoku has averaged 13.39 PPR points per game. But Dorian Thompson-Robinson replaces Jameis Winston as QB this week, so Njoku becomes a fringe start at tight end, while Jeudy is a higher-end flex option.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, NYG (ankle) — Questionable
Tracy was limited at practice on Wednesday and has been slowing lately. Since Week 13, Tracy is averaging 3.1 yards per carry, compared to 5.1 YPC before then. He still had 19.3 PPR points in Week 14, and he’s Jake Ciely’s RB29 if he plays. If he can’t go, Devin Singletary will man the backfield with help from Eric Gray.

Malik Nabers, WR, NYG (knee/foot) — Questionable
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, NYG (shoulder) — Questionable
Nabers and Robinson were limited in Wednesday’s practice. Nabers continues to be a WR2 with Drew Lock under center. Robinson should only be considered as a flex option if Nabers sits. Otherwise, look elsewhere.

Drew Lock, QB, NYG (heel/left elbow) — Questionable
Tommy DeVito, QB, NYG (concussion) — Questionable
Lock and DeVito were limited in Wednesday’s practice, but Lock is expected to start in Week 16 and should come off the injury later in the week.

Alec Pierce, WR, IND (concussion) — Questionable
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND (back) — Questionable
Neither Pierce nor Pittman practiced Wednesday. Josh Downs is Indy’s most highly targeted receiver (7.82 targets per game), followed by Pittman (6.77) and Pierce (4.14). Downs also averages the most receiving yards per game (56.91), and he could have a big week if the Colts’ are down other receivers. But temper expectations to some degree with Anthony Richardson, who is wildly inconsistent, under center.

Braelon Allen, RB, NYJ (back) — Questionable
Isaiah Davis, RB, NYJ (back) — Questionable
Allen and Davis were limited participants in Wednesday’s practice. Allen left Week 15’s contest against the Jaguars after only two carries for five yards. Breece Hall led the backfield with nine rushes, and Isaiah Davis had five carries. With Hall off the injury report, it’s probably best to bench Allen and Davis this week.

Xavier Legette, WR, CAR (hip) — Doubtful
Legette didn’t practice Wednesday and is doubtful to play this week. Adam Thielen is Bryce Young’s top target, while Jalen Coker had 110 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 15. Both players benefit if Legette sits.

Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI (concussion) — Questionable
Johnson was a full participant in Wednesday’s walk-through practice and could see carries alongside D’Andre Swift in Week 16. With Johnson out last week, Swift handled most of the backfield work with 4.2 yards per carry on 19 rushes.

Younghoe Koo, K, ATL (hip) — Out / Injured reserve
Koo has been placed on injured reserve after re-aggravating a hip injury during Monday’s win against the Raiders, according to the Falcons’ official site. The Falcons have signed Riley Patterson off the Browns’ practice squad to replace Koo.

Matt Prater, K, ARI (knee) — Questionable
Prater was designated to return from injured reserve, according to the Cardinals’ official site, and he was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice.

Sunday 4 p.m.

Isaac Guerendo, RB, SF (foot/hamstring) — Questionable
Guerendo did not practice Wednesday, according to SFStandard.com’s David Lombardi and on Thursday ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported the Niners RB is unlikely to play Sunday. If Guerendo sits, Patrick Taylor Jr. is next up and a decent deep-league flex option.

Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA (calf) — Questionable
Zach Charbonnet, RB, SEA (oblique) — Questionable
Neither Walker nor Charbonnet practiced Wednesday, but surely one of them will play. Charbonnet has excelled in the backfield after Walker’s injury. If neither back is available on Sunday, Kenny McIntosh is next on the depth chart. If either sits, the other is primed for a good week. Otherwise, they’ll share the workload and descend to RB2/flex territory.

DK Metcalf, WR, SEA (shoulder) — Questionable
Metcalf did not practice Wednesday, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been Seattle’s most productive wide receiver for fantasy purposes this year, and JSN’s value increases if Metcalf sits. Even if Metcalf plays, he’s descended to Ciely’s WR37 this week.

Geno Smith, QB, SEA (knee) — Expected to play
Smith was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice and is now expected to play, despite leaving Week 15’s matchup with a knee injury.

Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA (wrist) — Questionable
Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA (knee) — Questionable
Neither Waddle nor Hill practiced Wednesday, but Hill’s lack of involvement was partially just so he could rest, according to the South Florida Sun Sentinel’s David Furones. In Miami’s ugly loss to Houston in Week 15, TE Jonnu Smith and WR Malik Washington had more receiving yards than Hill or Waddle. If Waddle sits, Washington could have another decent game.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA (hip) — Questionable
Tagovailoa was limited at practice Wednesday. Miami’s QB leads the league in completion percentage (73.7 percent) but threw four interceptions in Week 15. It’s early in the week, and Tagovailoa likely plays, but Tyler Huntley is the Dolphins’ backup in case he doesn’t.

Sincere McCormick, RB, LV (ankle) — Injured reserve
McCormick joined fellow RB Zamir White on injured reserve, leaving the Raiders with RBs Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah in the backfield. Abdullah has been the more efficient back with 4.1 yards per carry, but Mattison (3.3 YPC) averages 9.45 rushes per game, compared to Abdullah’s 2.79.

Jakobi Meyers, WB, LV (ankle) — Questionable
Meyers was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell came off the injury report, so if Meyers plays, he’s a great flex option this week, averaging 13.96 PPR points per game.

Brenton Strange, TE, JAX (shoulder) — Questionable
Strange was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice due to a shoulder injury. Strange took over at tight end after Evan Engram hit IR and had 73 receiving yards on 12 targets and 11 receptions in Week 15.

Tony Pollard, RB, TEN (ankle) — Questionable
Pollard was on the injury report ahead of Week 15, and here he is again. He didn’t practice Wednesday, and if he doesn’t play, Tyjae Spears could be a decent flex option.

Tyler Boyd, WR, TEN (foot) — Questionable
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, TEN (ankle) — Questionable
Neither Boyd nor Westbrook Ikhine practiced on Wednesday, but neither is likely to start on many rosters during the fantasy playoffs. NWI has had some high-scoring fantasy games, but his fantasy points come from touchdowns and down-the-field throws. In Week 15, he had only two receptions for nine yards.

Zach Ertz, TE, WAS (concussion/rest) — Questionable
Ertz didn’t practice Wednesday after leaving Week 15’s contest with a concussion. John Bates and rookie Ben Sinnott are behind Ertz on the depth chart and could see action in Week 16.

Zane Gonzalez, K, WAS (foot) — Questionable
Gonzalez didn’t practice Wednesday while he awaits the birth of his child. His backup, Greg Joseph, is also expecting a child.

Sunday Night Football

CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL (shoulder) — Questionable
Lamb was a limited participant in Wednesday’s walk-through practice, according to The Athletic’s Jon Machota. In recent weeks, Lamb has been on the injury report early in the week, only to drop off of it later. But if he doesn’t play this week, Brandin Cooks benefits most, averaging five targets per game.

Baker Mayfield, QB, TB (knee) — Questionable
Mayfield didn’t practice Wednesday due to a knee injury, but it’s early in the week. His backup is Kyle Trask, but there’s no need to think about the possibility of Trask starting quite yet.

Bucky Irving, RB, TB (back/hip) — Questionable
Irving was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice. He was on the injury report ahead of Week 15, too, and then had 15 carries for 117 yards. If he sits, Rachaad White’s value increases, but White and Irving will likely share work in the backfield in Week 16, as usual.

Cade Otton, TE, TB (knee) — Questionable
Otton didn’t practice Wednesday. The rookie has been a great addition to Tampa Bay’s offense but has slowed recently. His best performance in the past five weeks came in Week 14 when he had 70 yards receiving on three catches and four targets.

Monday Night Football

Derek Carr, QB, NO (concussion, hand) — Doubtful
Carr was examined for his fractured left hand and is a few weeks away from being cleared to take contact, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Rookie Spencer Rattler will likely start for the Saints this week.

Alvin Kamara, RB, NO (groin) — Questionable
Interim head coach Darren Rizzi said Kamara was diagnosed with an adductor injury according to WWL Louisiana’s Ross Jackson. If he can’t play, Kendre Miller will lead the Saints backfield and is a decent flex option. If both play, they will likely split work against a tough Green Bay rush defense in a game that will likely call for a pass-heavy game script.

Weather report

Outdoor games only

December weather is here, and seven matchups this week come with expected temperatures below 35 degrees. The Patriots-Bills contest could see temperatures in the teens. In Jake Ciely’s fantasy football strategy guide to weather, he notes that the passing game is impacted when temperatures drop that low, as illustrated in the table below.

According to Rotowire’s aggregated NFL-related forecasts, of those eight matchups, only the Saints-Packers contest also comes with a higher chance (58 percent) of precipitation (snow).

New Orleans Saints (5-9) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-4)

Precipitation primarily impacts the passing game, as teams often lean on their backfields when it rains or snows. Deploy Josh Jacobs without a second thought, and if Alvin Kamara sits, Kendre Miller is a fringe RB2/flex option. According to TruMedia, there is no data for New Orleans’ rookie QB Spencer Rattler or Green Bay’s Jordan Love in the snow; however, Rattler spent his college and NFL career in the South, while Jordan Love went to Utah State in Logan, Utah (58.2 inches of snow annually). Take that for whatever it’s worth.

Against the Lions in Week 9 when rain (not snow) poured down, Love didn’t do so well. He completed only 59 percent of his passes and threw one interception to zero touchdowns, and Green Bay lost 24-14. He did put up 273 passing yards, and head coach Matt LaFleur trusted Love to attempt 39 passes. The Packers leading receiver in the game was Jayden Reed, who finished with 113 yards on five receptions.

Green Bay is favored by nearly two scores against the Saints, so the weather is slightly less relevant, but Green Bay still has the advantage. The Packers are quite accustomed to the cold; New Orleans and Rattler aren’t.

Featured games

Live updates are available on the day of the game. You can stream the NFL on Fubo (try for free).

Thursday night

Denver Broncos (9-5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)

• Venue: SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, Calif.
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: Prime Video

The Los Angeles Chargers are field-goal favorites over the Denver Broncos, despite the Mile-High team ranking higher in the AFC West. Quarterback Bo Nix and the Broncos are on a four-game winning streak, but those wins have come against weaker opponents: the Falcons, Raiders, Browns and Colts. Only Nix and Courtland Sutton are averaging more than 10 PPR points per game in Denver. The running back room has been the three-headed, fantasy-irrelevant monster of Jaleel McLaughlin, Javonte Williams and Audric Estime, but McLaughlin is out this week, so Williams and Estime should get more carries than usual.

On the defensive side, the Broncos excel, ranking second in yards per play and yards per carry allowed and fifth in rushing yards allowed per game. The Chargers’ backfield of Gus Edwards (2.9 YPC) and Kimani Vidal (3.0 YPC) had only 32 rushing yards combined in Week 15. But the connection between Ladd McConkey and Justin Herbert is the story of L.A.’s offense this season (especially after J.K. Dobbins hit injured reserve). Since Week 11, McConkey has averaged 17.52 PPR points per game on 8.5 targets per game. He also leads the team in EPA per target (0.53). Outside of McConkey, TE Will Dissly and, if he doesn’t play, Stone Smartt are options this week; WR Quentin Johnston had 10 targets and a touchdown last week, but his floor is in the zero-to-5 range.

Read the full preview.

Saturday

Houston Texans (9-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)

• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium — Kansas City, Mo.
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock

Having clinched the AFC South, the Houston Texans travel as field-goal underdogs to face the Kansas City Chiefs — AFC leaders vying for a first-round playoff bye. Patrick Mahomes, nursing an ankle injury from Week 15, may sit, meaning Carson Wentz would start at quarterback. Last week Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco each had 13 carries, with Hunt rushing for 45 yards compared to Pacheco’s 32. Xavier Worthy led all receivers with 46 receiving yards on 11 targets, while Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins had eight and six targets, respectively. The potential return of Hollywood Brown, who’s practicing this week, could add a new dimension to Kansas City’s passing game. But with no true No. 1 WR with week-to-week production, Kelce is the only reliable fantasy option.

For Houston, WR Nico Collins and RB Joe Mixon are every-week starters. Despite Mixon’s modest 10.6 PPR points against the Miami Dolphins in Week 15, he averages 20.25 points and leads the league in total touches per game. Collins scored two touchdowns for 17.7 PPR points last week despite a meager 17 receiving yards. The Chiefs and Texans defenses rank inside the top 10 in allowed points per game, yards per game and yards per play. Houston is also ranked second in takeaways. The game’s over/under was only 41.5 as of Thursday afternoon, the second-lowest of the week.

Read the full preview (coming Saturday).

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

• Venue: M&T Bank Stadium — Baltimore, Md.
• Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox

Though the Baltimore Ravens trail the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North, they are favored by nearly a touchdown in Week 16. Lamar Jackson has been incredible this season, leading the league in total yards (4,323), yards per attempt (8.9), and touchdowns (37, T-Joe Burrow) while throwing only three interceptions all season. Beneficiaries include Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman (not Diontae Johnson, as it turns out) and TE Mark Andrews. In the backfield, Derrick Henry has averaged 18.64 PPR points per game and has 1,474 rushing yards on the season, trailing only Saquon Barkley (1,688).

Pittsburgh’s defense leads the league in takeaways and ranks 10th in yards per play allowed, but Baltimore has only 10 turnovers on the season (ranked fourth). Against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15, Russell Wilson attempted just 22 passes and threw for only 128 yards. If George Pickens (hamstring) returns this week, start him. Otherwise, avoid Steelers receivers in the fantasy football playoffs. Pittsburgh managed only 56 yards on the ground last week, and Najee Harris is Jake Ciely’s RB30 this week, so avoid their RBs, too. Even Russell Wilson is only a Superflex starter this week, at best.

Read the full preview (coming Saturday).

Sunday afternoon

Minnesota Vikings (12-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-6)

• Venue: Lumen Field — Seattle, Wash.
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

The Minnesota Vikings travel to Lumen Field as field-goal favorites over the Seattle Seahawks. Sam Darnold has revived his career under head coach Kevin O’Connell (Coach of the Year, anyone?) with the fourth-best passer rating (104.9) in the NFL. Over one-third of Darnold’s 3,530 passing yards have gone to Justin Jefferson. When he draws coverage, Jordan Addison benefits with a ceiling of around 30 PPR points, which he’s topped twice, most recently in Week 14. Aaron Jones Sr. is a reliable fantasy starter, and T.J. Hockenson is Ciely’s TE6 this week. This team has a loaded fantasy offense, and Seattle’s defense is … average.

For the Seahawks, Geno Smith is expected to play after leaving with a knee injury last week. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the receiver to start for the Hawks, especially as DK Metcalf nurses a shoulder injury. JSN’s ascent means DK Metcalf can’t be started confidently, as his target share has dropped below 20 percent. Kenneth Walker III could return this week, but Zach Charbonnet has excelled in his absence, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. If Walker plays, he and Charbonnet will likely share carries and move to RB2/3 territory.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday).

Sunday night

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6-8)

• Venue: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored by just over a field goal on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. Baker Mayfield, in the second year of his redemption tour, ranks third in the NFL in passing yards and completion percentage, but he also has 14 interceptions, fewer than only the recently benched Kirk Cousins. While Mayfield’s connection with Mike Evans is ever-giving to fantasy players, lately, he’s building rapport with rookie Jalen McMillan, who scored 21.9 and 18.5 PPR points in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively. And Bucky Irving and Rachaad White make a great one-two punch in the backfield. Since Week 11, the Bucs’ offense ranks third in explosive play percentage.

But for all its offensive spoils, Tampa Bay struggles on defense, surrendering the third-most passing yards per game (247.7). Although Cooper Rush may not fully exploit this weakness, CeeDee Lamb stands to benefit. In Week 15, Lamb topped 100 receiving yards for the first time since Dak Prescott’s injury, and he’s scored over 20 PPR points two weeks in a row. Rico Dowdle has saved the Cowboys from looking foolish after not investing in a running back this offseason. He’s had three 100-rushing yard games in a row with near-complete control of the backfield. But the fantasy depth ends there, especially during the playoffs. Turn elsewhere (maybe across the field to McMillan) for players to flex in Week 16.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday).

Monday night

New Orleans Saints (5-9) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-4)

• Venue: Lambeau Field — Green Bay, Wis.
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, ABC

Green Bay, favored by over two touchdowns at home as of Thursday afternoon, can clinch a wild-card spot by defeating the New Orleans Saints this week. Jordan Love has been impressive lately, averaging 17.2 fantasy points per game with a 119.9 passer rating since Week 11. However, starting a Green Bay wide receiver still feels like a gamble. Romeo Doubs is rostered in only 41.5 percent of ESPN leagues, leads the team in targets per game, and has never scored zero PPR points, unlike Jayden Reed and Christian Watson. Yet, when all three are on the field together, Reed wins the target share battle. Given the fantasy playoffs, avoiding all Packers WRs may be wise. Look to other skill positions where Tucker Kraft is fantasy’s TE8 and Josh Jacobs is RB6 on the year … which brings us to the Saints.

Alvin Kamara (groin) is questionable ahead of this matchup, and in Week 15, he was out-rushed by Kendre Miller after Kamara left with an injury. If Kamara sits, Miller is a fringe RB2/flex option. However, Green Bay’s rush defense is in the top 10 in most categories, and the Saints will likely (according to the odds) be playing catch-up most of the game. Otherwise, there’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling, whose ceiling was high with Derek Carr, but his value diminishes with Spencer Rattler throwing passes … and that’s all folks.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday)

Week 16 market share report

Michael Salfino looks at usage across to league to help you set your lineup for the fantasy playoffs.

Jerome Ford is rostered in less than half of Yahoo leagues (44 percent), so he could be on waivers in your league. But should we start him against the Bengals if we have him on our teams, or we can pick him up? I’d have him about RB20, given that Jameis Winston is benched. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has basically no floor except whatever we think the Bengals’ defense provides (which could be somewhat high). Maybe Ford is 15th. My point is he’s not an automatic start.

Kendre Miller has a brutal matchup against Green Bay, and we’re not sure Alvin Kamara is even out. If Kamara plays, that’s probably the worst-case scenario for managers of both players. Miller and Kamara will have to contribute mostly as receivers, and they won’t do much in the passing game without Derek Carr as their QB.

As for receivers on waivers, generally, I’d rank them Romeo Doubs, Jalen Coker, Rashod Bateman.

The matchup with the Steelers is the major problem for Bateman. The Ravens are likely to score one to two TDs.

I like Doubs (No. 55) more than the market because the top three Green Bay WRs each have two-TD ceilings and no floor. They’re exactly the same. So Doubs has a 20 to 33 percent chance of winning a playoff game for you, no different than Jayden Reed, even though Reed will be started in almost all deeper formats.

Coker gets the Cardinals, a sort of a neutral matchup, in the Mayor of Munchkin City Bowl (winner gets to keep the ruby slippers).

—Salfino

See all of Salfino’s insights.

2024 NFL playoff projections

Austin Mock and The Athletic’s NFL staff release their 2024 NFL playoff projections 

Welcome to our 2024 NFL projections, where you will find each team’s probability of conquering its division, advancing through the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. The projections are based on 100,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, which factors in each team’s projected strength, current health as well as its remaining schedule. All projections and probabilities are rounded to the nearest whole number.

Methodology

We create an offensive and defensive projection for every NFL team from a linear regression model that incorporates various metrics, such as Expected Points Added and Success Rate. These projections estimate how many points each team would be expected to score and allow in a game against an average opponent at a neutral site. We then assign a probability of how likely a team is to win a given game by adjusting for opponent and location. Taking into account each team’s current record, health and remaining schedule, we use these game-by-game projections to simulate the rest of the season (including the playoffs) 100,000 times.

—Mock

See the model’s projections and select your favorite team to see where it stands.

Jake Ciely’s Week 16 fantasy football player rankings

Find out Jake’s top QB, RB, WR and TE for the week!

• There is no perfect widget out there, sadly, still. I know many view this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop/etc. if possible or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, to get the scrolling to work (or Android people can try a two-finger scroll).
• ECR = “Expert” Consensus Ranking (which isn’t updated by everyone consistently, so take with a grain of salt).
• Updated regularly, so check up to lineups locking.

Get Ciely’s full Week 16 analysis. Plus sleepers and projections.

(Photo: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)