Washington Commanders coach Dan Quinn was asked by reporters this week if all his team’s close wins can carry over to the playoffs.
To which he answered, “S— gets crazy in the postseason … we like crazy.”
Crazy would be good, after what’s been a ho-hum season. The last team to make — and win — the Super Bowl as a wild-card team was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020, led by Tom Brady, the new minority owner who is currently going through the Las Vegas Raiders headquarters like Negan from “The Walking Dead.”
We would like to pick a wild-card team to make a run, but the problem is they are mostly walking around like … zombies. The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost four straight, while the Green Bay Packers — a popular sleeper pick a month ago — are all bandaged up.
But after days of research and analysis, we said screw it. We are going wild. We’re taking the Commanders to make the Super Bowl.
Obviously, the main reason is rookie sensation Jayden Daniels, who has come up huge in clutch situations again and again. And close behind is the return of cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who has been out with a hamstring injury but practiced on Thursday. Quinn is a good defensive coach who has been scuffling all season and Lattimore is a difference-maker.
The Commanders (12-5) overcame their defense as they were No. 5 in the league in scoring offense (28.5 points per game). Daniels finished with the highest completion percentage (69 percent) and most rushing yards (891) by a rookie quarterback in NFL history.
It’s a bold/dumb pick. But it doesn’t really matter who the Kansas City Chiefs beat in the Super Bowl anyway.
On with this weekend’s money-makers:
Last week’s record: 5-10-1 against the spread, 1-3-1 on best bets.
Season record: 120-148-4 against the spread, 39-48-3 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
We’re usually a sucker for the home underdog — and they have done well for us in the playoffs historically — but, man, it’s hard to embrace the Texans. C.J. Stroud threw all of six passes in the finale, as the Texans had nothing to play for.
They lost two straight games before that, including a 31-2 shellacking at the hands of the Ravens on Christmas Day. And they have been scuffling for a while — Stroud ranked 31st in expected points added per dropback from Weeks 6 through 18.
Joe Mixon used up all his good running in September and October and the Texans rank 26th in red zone touchdown rate. The Chargers, meanwhile, have the best red zone defense in the league, holding teams without touchdowns 55 percent of the time.
The Texans offensive line stinks, which is troublesome because they love third-and-long and the Chargers have Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa targeting Stroud. The Texans also have a good pass rush, but the Chargers have a very good offense and quick-trigger Justin Herbert. Not to mention budding star, rookie slot receiver Ladd McConkey.
The Texans don’t seem like a hard team to coach against, and Jim Harbaugh continues to push the Chargers’ resurgence way ahead of schedule.
The pick: Chargers
GO DEEPER
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Man, this spread is ridiculous. The Steelers were three-point underdogs against the Ravens in November and won that game. Then, they were seven-point underdogs in Baltimore last month and that game was tied 17-17 in the closing minutes of the third quarter before a couple of turnovers and 17 unanswered points. The win was only the Ravens’ second in the last 10 games in the series.
The Steelers have always done a uniquely great job of containing Lamar Jackson, and even in that loss, he only had 22 rushing yards. The problems are Derrick Henry (162 yards rushing in that game) and the Steelers offense. Talented receiver George Pickens didn’t play in that loss to the Ravens but was terrible against the Bengals last week and the Steelers rank 31st in expected points added per play the last month.
The Ravens have greatly improved their deep-pass defense in the last half of the season, which limits Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson a little bit. We might even see Justin Fields in some packages in this game. Mike Tomlin will have his troops ready and all you need is about 20 points to cover this spread.
The pick: Steelers
The Bills may not go deep in the playoffs, but they own this weekend. Buffalo is hosting a wild-card game for the fifth consecutive season — and it is 4-0 with a 35-22 average margin.
The Bills averaged a league-high 3.35 points per drive at home this season, and 2.78 points per drive against playoff teams, behind only the Ravens (2.82). The Broncos will stop the run but won’t have any luck slowing down Josh Allen. He is excellent against the blitz and against man coverage, and this game could look a lot like when he went up and down the field against the Lions last month.
The Broncos’ best chance to stay close is to work the clock offensively with screen plays and short passes, and the Bills are built to prevent the big play — so that works out well for Sean Payton and rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
We were dead wrong on Nix. He had seven games with 200-plus yards, two or more touchdown passes and zero interceptions — the most by any rookie quarterback since 1950, per the NFL. So, we’re picking Daniels to win his game and Nix to cover the spread.
The pick: Broncos
Saquon Barkley had three touchdowns in the season opener against the Packers. (Pedro Vilela / Getty Images)
This one is especially tricky, as while you would think both quarterbacks won’t miss this game, you have to wonder how effective the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts (concussion/finger) and the Packers’ Jordan Love (elbow) will be.
Hurts would seemingly run less while Love’s elbow injury, at least, shouldn’t affect his tendency to throw off his back foot — a major reason the Packers were swept in four games by the Lions and Vikings.
This game is another rematch, and no one can forget Saquon Barkley’s three touchdowns in a 34-29 season-opening win in Brazil. The Packers are a lot better against the run now, while the Eagles defense is much better overall.
The Eagles turned the ball over three times in that win over the Packers, and barring a repeat of that, their talented rookie cornerbacks should be able to handle a wounded Packers receiving corps in what should be a low-scoring game. Laying five points in a low-scoring game isn’t optimal, but I don’t think Nick Sirianni blows it this week.
The pick: Eagles
GO DEEPER
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You probably laughed at the Commanders prediction above, especially if you remember the season-opener against the Buccaneers, as this is another rematch. Baker Mayfield threw four touchdowns in a 37-20 win that was nowhere near that close, with the Commanders scoring a touchdown in garbage time.
But that was before Daniels became a star, and the Buccaneers have a lot of injuries in their secondary right now. Daniels has tried to spread the ball around as defenses have aimed to take Terry McLaurin away, but we expect one of the league’s great receivers to shine.
The reason the Commanders would lose is simple — they’ve allowed the second-highest explosive run rate (13.5 percent) — but a focus on that and containing Mayfield (41 touchdowns and a league-high 16 interceptions) from extending plays would give Daniels the opening he needs.
The pick: Commanders
It was just a month ago that the Bills sleepwalked into Los Angeles and lost 44-42, and for the rest of the week all you heard was about how dangerous the Rams were and nobody wanted to face that offense.
Well, Matthew Stafford and company then scored a total of 44 points in their next three games. They somehow won all of them, thanks to a young defense making plays against three losing teams.
Stafford has been wildly inconsistent all season, and part of that is Cooper Kupp isn’t the same coming off an ankle injury. The Rams beat the Vikings 30-20 in October, but Sam Darnold improved since then — partly because Jordan Addison gave him a second big-time, reliable playmaker alongside Justin Jefferson.
Darnold missed a lot of throws last week in an ugly loss to the Lions, but the Rams can’t send that kind of all-out pressure and I think Darnold bounces back. Look at me, picking both Nix and Darnold.
The pick: Vikings
GO DEEPER
Rams-Vikings wild-card game moved to Arizona due to L.A. wildfires
Best bets: I’m going with three underdogs, the Steelers (+10) at the Ravens, the Broncos (+10) at the Bills and the Commanders (+3) at the Buccaneers.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Obviously the Commanders, who are at +140 on the money line.
(Top photo of Jayden Daniels: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)
