NFL Monday Night Football Week 2 Picks And Popular Props Saints-Panthers And Browns-Steelers

A Monday Night Football doubleheader with division duels concludes Week 2 that saw high-scoring return to the football fields. Tonight the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers will kickoff the night followed by the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. Both the Panthers (+3) and Steelers (+2.5) are home underdogs and shooting for their first win against the undefeated Saints and Browns.

Monday Night Football is returning to ABC this season

A record-breaking 22.6 million viewers watched the Week 1 MNF game between the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills across ESPN, ABC, ESPN2 (The Manning Cast), NFL+ and ESPN Deportes.

Week 1 action saw 16 games average just 41.0 points per game including the NY Jets comeback win to beat the Buffalo Bills 22-16 in OT on Monday Night Football. But the 14 games so far in Week 2 have averaged 50.8 points per game and 12 of the 14 contests went ‘over’ the game total.

The MNF games between the Saints-Panthers and Browns-Steelers are expected to be lower scoring with over/under totals of 39.5 and 38.5, according to the top online sportsbooks.

Monday Night Football Popular Props

Some of the most bet and popular props in the two MNF games from leading online sportsbooks include:


  • Michael Thomas to score anytime touchdown (+250)
  • Chris Olave to score 1st touchdown (+1000)
  • Chris Olave to score anytime touchdown (+205)
  • Jamaal Williams to score 1st touchdown (+600)
  • George Pickens to score anytime touchdown (+250)
  • Derek Carr under 230.5 passing yards (-115)
  • Rashid Shaheed over 37.5 receiving yards (-120)
  • Michael Thomas under 50.5 receiving yards (-115)


  • Nick Chubb to score anytime touchdown (+100)
  • Nick Chubb to score 1st touchdown (+500)
  • Nick Chubb over 82.5 rushing yards (-120)
  • Deshaun Watson over 25.5 rushing yards (-120)
  • Najee Harris over 13.5 rushing attempts (-130)

Monday Night Football Picks

I turned to a sports betting colleague and respected professional sports handicapper Bob Stoll for more insight and analysis on the Monday Night Football games. Dr. Bob Sports hit a best bet on Indianapolis (+1) Sunday in the Colts 31-20 win over the Houston Texans, and provided added insightful Week 2 analysis on the contest.

You can use some of the data below to target more prop bets when betting on NFL teams. That includes Panthers WR Adam Theilan (2.5) or TE Hayden Hurst (3.5) to go over their receptions props, or Saints WR Chris Olave (75.5) or WR Rashid Sheheed (37.5) to surpass their receiving yards.

New Orleans at Carolina

  • Bryce Young had just a 33% dropback success rate in week 1 against former Saints coach Ryan Neilsen’s Falcons defense, and now the rookie QB will go against nearly the same scheme this Sunday.
  • New Orleans led the NFL in week 1 with a 48% man coverage rate and the Saints conceded only a 31% pass success rate to the Titans. Carolina’s wide receivers are clearly worse than Tennessee’s WRs and I’m not sure the Panthers will be able to separate for Young.
  • Young targeted RBs on 26% of passes in week 1 (7th-most) but the Saints conceded only 4.5 yards per target to opposing running backs last season (2nd). The Panthers also had a 26% target rate to tight ends, but New Orleans allowed a league-low 4.7 yards per target to TEs in 2022.
  • Carolina will be missing both starting guards with Brady Christensen joining Austin Corbett on the IR. Backup Panthers guard Chandler Zavala surrendered 8 pressures last week and they’ll now have to roll with fourth guard Calvin Throckmorton as well.
  • Carolina’s passing offense will likely come down to whether Adam Theilen can win on in inside across from Saints nickelback Alontae Taylor, who surrendered 2.28 yards per cover snap in the slot last week (4th-most).
  • The Panthers’ defense was stout to open the season allowing the Falcons offense to average only a 36% success rate (8th-worst). However, Carolina starting CB Jaycee Horn is going to miss this game. Horn ranked 21st in Pro Football Focus (PFF) coverage grade last season and backup cornerback CJ Henderson will struggle across from New Orleans WR Chris Olave, who gained 3.50 yards per route run last week (3rd).
  • Saints QB Derek Carr led the league with an average depth of target of 11.5 in week 1 and we saw flashes of the downfield passing game from this Saints offense last year with Andy Dalton as well. I think it’s safe to say offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael wants to throw deep more often than his mentor Sean Payton. New Orleans vertical threat WR Rashid Shaheed sealed the game with a 41-yard reception on 3rd down with less than 2 minutes remaining.
  • Panthers edge defender Brian Burns had 67 pressures (10th) in 2022 and I could see defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero putting Burns across from LT Trevor Penning, who had a rough second career start last game. Penning had 12 blown pass blocks in week 1, twice the amount of any other offensive lineman.

Our model favors the Saints by 3.5 points with a predicted total of 41.2 points.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Fans in Ohio can get a 30% profit boost tonight when they bet on the game at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Steelers ran the ball 10 times for 41 yards in their 30-7 Week 1 home loss to the 49ers. the game. Both were NFL lows in Week 1. Steelers RB Najee Harris has gained 268 yards on 51 carries in two home games against Cleveland, and averaged 104 rushing yards per game in four contests versus the Browns.

  • New Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz dialed up a game plan and held Joe Burrow’s Bengals to a league-low 2.6 yards per play in week 1. Schwartz’s defense was a far cry from the conservative approach of previous DC Joe Woods as the Browns had a 41% blitz rate in week 1 (4th-highest) and a 28% man coverage rate (8th-highest).
  • Steelers WR Diontae Johnson is out for about 4 weeks with a strained hamstring and his absence will make it more difficult for Kenny Pickett against Cleveland’s aggressive man defense. Johnson graded 25th by PFF against man coverage last season and he’s worth 0.4 points according to our numbers.
  • Pittsburgh’s defense also suffered an impactful loss in interior defender Cameron Heyward, who ranked 4th in pass-rushing efficiency last year. The Steelers have allowed a half-yard per rush more with Heyward off the field since the start of 2021 and the effect is particularly noticeable on inside runs where the Browns excel behind Pro Bowl guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller.
  • Pittsburgh’s offensive line surrendered a 46% pressure rate in week 1 (4th-worst) now RT Chukwuma Okorafor is banged up. Okorafor ranked 19th in pass-blocking efficiency on true pass-blocking sets last season but it is a difficult matchup for him not to be at full strength. Cleveland’s edge defenders Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith combined for 12 pressures last game.
  • Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth gritting through a chest injury and his 52% success rate when targeted last season was the highest among Pittsburgh’s receivers.
  • The Browns had a loss of their own with former All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin going down. Conklin ranked 4th in pass-blocking efficiency last year. Backup tackle Dawand Jones had an impressive preseason and did not allow a single pressure filling in for Conklin last week but the rookie will have an entirely new challenge on Monday night against TJ Watt, who had 2 quarterback hits and 3 sacks in week 1.
  • Browns QB Deshaun Watson averaged only 3.5 yards per pass play in the first half last week but gained 6.9 yppp in the second half when the rain let up a little. Watson has faced precipitation in every home start as a Brown thus far, but conditions look decent in Pittsburgh on Monday night.

Our model makes Cleveland a 2.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 40.5.

Looks like yards, scoring and consistent drives will be tougher to come by in the Monday Night Football matchups.

You can bet on it.


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