Week 14 of the NFL season brought my NFL Projection Model a nice little bounce back with a 3-1-1 week. I should have known that laying more than a field goal with the Chiefs was a bad idea considering they’re allergic to winning by anything but a small margin. That’s been noted. Maybe taking them on the moneyline is advantageous going forward. Either way, it was a good week overall and hopefully we can keep that rolling into the final month of the season.
Last week’s record: 3-1-1, +1.85 units
Season record: 29-33-4, -6.25 units, -8.8% ROI
Three plays to kick off the week. We are getting to the point in the year where I need to be in love with a number to bet a good portion of these teams so the cards might be a little smaller. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck to us!
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Best bets for NFL Week 15
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans under 47 (-110)
The Dolphins have struggled against quality opponents for almost two seasons now and the Texans, off a bye, should present a quality defense to make life tough for Tua Tagovailoa. On the other side of the ball, Houston’s offense is a mess. The Texans cannot run the ball whatsoever and their pass protection is horrible as well. In fact, their offensive line is committing a blown block or a pressure on 30 percent of offensive plays according to FTN Data. That’s the worst mark in the league by almost five percent. Long story short, I think both offenses could find themselves struggling a bit this weekend.
- Worst price to bet: Under 47 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals -5.5 (-110) vs. New England Patriots
The Cardinals have lost three in a row, but playing the Seahawks and Vikings defenses during the losing streak has a lot to do with the struggles. The Patriots defense, on the other hand, rates near the bottom in my projections which should allow Kyler Murray and this offense to flourish. I’m not in love with laying points with an average team like the Cardinals, but it’s hard for me to see how the Patriots stop the Cardinals’ offense.
- Worst price to bet: Cardinals -6 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings -6.5 (-115) vs. Chicago Bears
Shop around for the best price here because there are some 6.5s hanging around but this is trending towards a full touchdown, which I’m fine betting. My number is closer to -8. Caleb Williams likes to hold the ball — he’s the most sacked quarterback in the league this year — and Brian Flores’ defense like to bring all sorts of pressure, but you’re never sure where it’s coming from. That spells disaster for this Bears’ offense and paired with Sam Darnold playing his way to becoming a $30 million quarterback. I think the Vikings win big on Monday night.
- Worst price to bet: Vikings -7 (-110)
(Photo of Kyler Murray: Norm Hall / Getty Images)
