For the second straight Sunday, leading online sportsbooks are taking early bets on a NFL matchup in Frankfurt, Germany. The New England Patriots (2-7) and Indianapolis Colts (4-5) may not be the matchup locals want to see after the Chiefs and Dolphins battled in Frankfurt last Sunday. Still, tickets to these two games in Frankfurt sold out quickly. Football fans in the U.S. will be tuning in more to a pair of key matchups between winning teams pushing for the playoffs that will be driving the NFL watch and wager action on Sunday, Nov. 12.
Kickoff for Sunday’s earliest game in Germany is 9:30 a.m. ET. But the Browns-Ravens game is among the most bet on Sunday with Most Valuable Player win contender QB Lamar Jackson driving the interest. Jackson is currently +500 to win MVP, and just behind Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts – who are both on a bye this week with the Kansas City Chiefs (+490) and Philadelphia Eagles (+500) also the current favorites to win Super Bowl LVIII on Feb. 11, 2024 in Las Vegas.
The Houston Texans (4-4) and Cincinnati Bengals (5-3) are also drawing more betting interest in their early wave matchup Sunday in Cincinnati. The Detroit Lions (6-2) and Los Angeles Chargers (4-4) is the most popular late afternoon game with the Lions (-3) generating the most spread bets and money from bettors wagering at leading online sportsbooks FanDuel and BetMGM.
NFL Week 10 Odds
Pro football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spreads listed on favorites.
- New England vs. Indianapolis (-1.5), Total 43.5 – played in Germany
- Cleveland at Baltimore (-6.5), 38.5
- Houston at Cincinnati (-6.5), 47
- San Francisco (-3) at Jacksonville, 45.5
- New Orleans (-3) at Minnesota, 40.5
- Green Bay at Pittsburgh (-3.5), 38.5
- Tennessee at Tampa Bay (-2.5), 38.5
- Atlanta (-1.5) at Arizona, 43.5
- Detroit (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers, 48.5
- New York Giants at Dallas (-17.5), 39.5
- Washington at Seattle (-6), 44.5
- New York Jets (-1) at Las Vegas, 36.5 (Sunday Night)
- Denver at Buffalo (-7), 46.5 (Monday Night)
Bye weeks: Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia, Los Angeles Rams
NFL Week 10 Picks and Props
FanDuel contributors chip-in Week 10 picks on sides, totals and player props with insight and analysis.
Here is a player prop for review – Commanders QB Sam Howell ‘Over’ 37.5 passing attempts.
I watched Howell closely in last weeks 20-17 win at New England when he passed 45 times and completed 29 for 325 yards. He was sharp and in command making accurate throws while passing often. The week prior he passed 52 times and completed 39 for 387 yards and 4 TD’s in a 38-31 defeat against the leagues top team with the Eagles now 8-1.
Howell leads the league in pass attempts, and the Washington Commanders now face a below-average Seattle Seahawks pass defense allowing 66.5% completions. Teams are attacking Seattle’s secondary and pass defense averaging 37.4 pass attempts per game – among the five highest attempts per game in the league.
Howell has passed for the second-most passing yards in the NFL with 2,471 yards while leading the league in pass attempts with 353, or 39.2 per game. The Commanders also pass the ball on 67.86% of their plays – highest in the league.
The Commanders have a solid running back tandem, but are only running the ball 20.9 times per game – lowest in the league. They may run it more this week after watching the Ravens slam through the Seahawks defense last week for 298 rushing yards on 41 attempts. But Howell should still be passing plenty and attacking the Seahawks weaker pass defense.
A tip in gambling is a bet suggested by a third party who is perceived to be more knowledgeable about that subject than the bookmaker who sets the initial odds.
New England vs. Indianapolis
The Patriots (2-7) have the worst record in the AFC, and are also burning bettors money going 2-7 against the spread (ATS). That runs New England’s betting profile to 2-11 ATS dating back to last year. But proven NFL handicapper Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports likes coach Bill Belichick’s approach this week to help the Patriots get a win. Stoll noted the injury issues and defensive deficiencies of the Colts secondary in Week 8 when he picked and bet the Saints and watched Indianapolis lose to New Orleans 38-27 just one week after the Colts allowed 39 points to the Browns in defeat. Turnovers have also been an issue in recent weeks for the Colts.
“Bill Belichick will dial up extra pass rushers from the second level,” Stoll says. “Colts QB Gardner Minshew is averaging -0.27 EPA/play versus the blitz compared to gaining 0.13 EPA/play against a standard pass rush.”
- The Colts yards per attempt against the blitz is a league-low 69% of their yards per attempt when defenses do not send more than four pass rushers.
- Minshew has the highest Pro Football Focus (PFF) turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL at 6.3%. Belichick’s opportunistic defense will likely get at least one interception on Sunday (prop bet).
- Minshew will not have his most efficient receiver, as Josh Downs is likely out on the NFL injury report after reaggravated his knee injury last week. Downs is gaining 0.49 EPA/target (10th) and he is worth a half point to the Indianapolis offense.
- The Colts have the league’s 6th-highest run rate adjusted for the situation, but they won’t be able to move the ball on the ground as the Patriots are allowing just a 32.8% rush success rate (3rd).
- The Indianapolis defense is surrendering a 42.1% rush success rate (25th) and they rank 27th in EPA/rush allowed since interior defender Grover Stewart was suspended. Stewart’s 10.6% run stop rate ranked 12th through the first 6 weeks. New England’s 107 rushing yards last week was their 2nd-most of the season as they are clearly improving in the trenches.
- The Patriots’ offensive line ranks 5th in pass-blocking efficiency since week 7 when they solved the right tackle issue with Michael Onwenu. Mac Jones will have clean pockets this week against a Colts defense with only a 30.6% pressure rate (27th).
- The Colts are down to fifth cornerback Darrell Baker after the suspension of Isaiah Rodgers, Dallis Flowers’ Achilles, and JuJu Brents likely out another week due to the quad. Baker is surrendering 1.79 yards per cover snap ranking 73rd out of 79 qualifying cornerbacks
- Our model favors the Patriots by 3.8 points, with a predicted total of 44.2 points, and Bill Belichick’s teams have always been good after consecutive losses, as New England is 15-3 ATS from dog to -7 after back-to-back losses, including 5-1 ATS the last two seasons with Mac Jones at quarterback (also 32-11-1 ATS after consecutive spread losses).
More Week 10 complimentary NFL analysis, insight and data-driven forcasts from Dr. Bob Sports, along with additional NFL betting news, odds and insight on all the NFL teams as fans continue to watch and wager on America’s most popular sport.
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