NFL 2023 Week 1 Odds, Matchups, Picks And Betting Insight

The NFL kicked off the 2023 season with the Super Bowl favorite Kansas City Chiefs suffering a home loss to the Detroit Lions, 21-20. Now football fans and bettors are ready to watch their favorite NFL teams battle on Sunday with major wagering action adding to the engagement and excitement of another football season. The Monday Night Football opener will be one of the most bet games of the week when the New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills in a key AFC East contest.

The Bills are also one of the Super Bowl favorites to start the season with Super Bowl LVIII held in Las Vegas on Sunday, Feb. 11, 2024.

Week 1 Odds

Week 1 presents some intriguing matchups with eight division games, and the betting odds and lines continue to adjust from early week.

  • Jacksonville at Indianapolis (+5)
  • Carolina at Atlanta (-3.5)
  • Las Vegas at Denver (-3.5)
  • Cincinnati at Cleveland (+2.5)
  • Green Bay at Chicago (-1)
  • Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (-5.5)
  • Dallas at New York Giants (+3.5)
  • Buffalo at New York Jets (+2.5)

Betting NFL Underdogs for Profit in Week 1

Betting Angle: Divisional home underdogs are 17-7-1 straight up (SU) and 21-4 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 since 2009.

Also, a leading online sportsbook reports that that all Week 1 underdogs have hit nearly 56% ATS the last 10 seasons going 87-69-4 ATS with divisional ‘Dogs 35-15-1 ATS (70%) home or away.

Types of bets and how to read the odds.

Who will be this year’s surprise teams? Last season, the Jacksonville Jaguars won the AFC South with a 9-8 record after winning just 3 games the previous season. The Giants went from 4 to 9 wins and a playoff spot and wild card round win. The Vikings went from a losing record to division champs and 13 wins. And the Los Angeles Rams went the other direction going 5-12 after winning the Super Bowl the year prior following a 12-5 season and NFC West title. Green Bay also dropped from 13 wins each of the past three seasons and three division titles to missing the playoffs with 8 wins.

In 18 of the last 20 NFL seasons, at least one team has ascended from worst to first in its division. The Jets, Browns, Texans and Broncos finished last in AFC divisions last season. The Commanders, Bears and Cardinals were worst in the NFC divisions with the Falcons, Saints and Panthers all tied at 7-10 in the NFC South.

Bears, Browns and Burrow try to snap losing streaks

The Cleveland Browns have won just two games in Week 1 since 1999, going 2-21-1. But the Browns have beaten Joe Burrow and the Bengals in five of the last six meetings despite a worse record each year. Cool Joe Burrow is 0-3 at Cleveland in the Dawg pound since being drafted No. 1 overall in 2020, but the Bengals have won the AFC North division in two of his three years. Contrast that to Cleveland, who has never won the AFC North since division realignment in 2002, and last won a division title in 1989 when the Browns were in the AFC Central.

Will the Chicago Bears break through opening week against division rival Green Bay? The Packers have beaten the Bears eight straight times and 13 of the last 14 games – all with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. That changes this Sunday with QB Jordan Love taking over as starter, and the 2020 No. 1 pick joins the Bears 2021 No. 1 pick Justin Fields at Soldier Field. The Bears also lost 10 straight games to close the 2022 season despite leading the league in rushing (177/game) with Fields adding more than 1,100 yards rushing last season.

Here is what Dr. Bob Sports notes as part of his NFL free analysis on select games. Fans and bettors can get insightful analysis and analytics to gain added insight into the teams, players and matchups.

Justin Fields has more rushing EPA in his first two seasons in the league than any quarterback in our database, including Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton. However, he’s finished last or close to it in yards per pass play in both seasons with a 3.6% career interception rate to boot. Quarterback rushing production has less variance than passing and Fields will have a real receiving corps for the first time after the Bears traded for wide receiver DJ Moore, who had a great season in 2020 where he finished 8th in yards per route run.

Week 1 Betting Data

FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars and BetMGM are the leading online sportsbooks that take a majority of the betting action and handle (money) across the legal U.S. sports betting market. The Browns vs Bengals game is the most bet early game Sunday along with the Ravens vs Texans with a majority of bettors riding the big favorite Baltimore.

The Jaguars are drawing the most money against the spread (ATS) along with the Eagles and Ravens. The late afternoon games drawing the most bets and money include the Patriots vs Eagles and Steelers vs 49ers.

The betting data changes throughout each day with a majority of bets taken over the weekend closer to kickoff. Follow the NFL teams, news and odds as fans and bettors rejoice that another football season has arrived.

You can bet on it.

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