If recent history is any guide, what follows will be revised in short order.
NBA teams have grown increasingly comfortable taking their offseason business deep into the summer, making blockbuster trades in August (Kyrie Irving to the Boston Celtics in 2017) and September (Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks) a normalized part of the offseason. This summer, with all due respect to the Brandon Ingrams, Zach LaVines and Kyle Kuzmas of the Association, there isn’t a first-tier superstar who looks certain to be moved elsewhere before the start of next season.
Lauri Markkanen could have been the biggest trade piece this offseason, but he and the Jazz agreed on a contract extension on Aug. 7, one day after he was eligible to sign it. Why one day? That date was significant because he wouldn’t be eligible to be traded at all next season; the 2024-25 trade deadline is Feb. 6, 2025, and players who sign new contracts are ineligible to be traded for at least six months after they sign their new deals.
GO DEEPER
Lauri Markkanen’s extension is an example of perseverance and opportunity
So we plow forward with the annual rankings of each team’s offseason. This is, most assuredly, not scientific. It’s an opinion, based in fact, to be sure. But also based on history, intuition and educated guesses.
The rankings are based on one question: How much better is a team going into next season than it was at the end of last season? And that means assessing how much a team improved, either via trades, free agency, the draft or some other way. Did it hire a new coach, as the Phoenix Suns did in getting two-time NBA Coach of the Year Mike Budenholzer? Did it revamp its front office or move into a new (or renovated) revenue-generating building, as the Clippers will be doing this fall when they open their Intuit Dome? Is a key player returning from injury, such as the Miami Heat’s Jimmy Butler or the New York Knicks’ Julius Randle?
But some of y’all like being contrary, so further detailing follows.
What to know about these rankings
As this just covers the offseason, here’s what these rankings are not:
A predicted order of finish for next season.
These are not “power rankings” as you have come to understand them. For example, I am not saying the Spurs are actually better now on the court than the Timberwolves, just because I think San Antonio had a more impactful offseason. The Spurs have further to go than Minnesota does to be a good team. If they closed some of that deficit well this summer, I give them credit. This graph is for the “Doug Rs” of the world — who, invariably, leave a version of the following in the comments every year, after reading the rankings and completely ignoring the context of the exercise: “Spurs better than the Timberwolves, lol. Your (sp) an idiot.”
It’s possible I am an idiot, but not because of this.
Accordingly, as I say every year:
• If your team is ranked in the top 10, it doesn’t mean I love your team.
• If your team is ranked in the bottom 10, it doesn’t mean I hate your team.
There’s just one question: Is the team better now than at the end of last season? The ranking reflects the belief on whether, and how much, that is so. I liked certain guys who were in the draft more than others, for example, so if your team took them, I probably weighed it more positively. The same goes for vets like, say, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Delon Wright, whose presence on teams almost always leads to more winning basketball plays on the floor on a given night.
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Also:
• This isn’t science. It’s an educated guess. Paul George would fit in anywhere, just as he will in Philly. But most additions have to make sense for their new teams to be graded highly.
• Teams that are judicious and smart about their cap space, exceptions and the like get major props here. There’s more than one way to skin a cat. You can use existing space to bring in multiple good if not great players, or put everything into a single difference maker. But it’s graded on a curve here if it costs you a key member of your current rotation.
• Rebuilding teams have different priorities from teams in the midst of making a championship run. So a team at the bottom of the actual NBA standings can nonetheless get a good grade here if it used its cap space well and made smart draft picks. Teams that fixed obvious roster weaknesses also get credit, while teams that ignored or didn’t address clear deficiencies probably get dinged a little.
• A contending team that continues to go deep into the luxury/repeater/second apron — which most teams try to avoid — should be commended for continuing to try to win at the highest level, and is so here. Also, “brain drain” is important: good teams lose front office people and coaches more rapidly than mediocre ones, and it’s hard to consistently keep replacing solid people who understand your organization’s culture and have the respect and trust of your players.
• Injuries matter, of course. The Clippers aren’t as good without a fully functional Kawhi Leonard. A team that will lose a key member of its rotation at the start of the season because of a long-term injury rehab loses ground in these rankings to a team getting a superstar or key player back.
• Continuity matters as well. The more successful teams usually not only identify a core group of players but also keep them together (See: Boston). It may also make more sense for other teams to keep their financial powder dry for another day.
So, here we go, with team Nos. 30 to 21, with the remaining teams to follow later this week.
Salary numbers, with a couple of exceptions, come from Spotrac, which stays on top of this stuff as well as anyone east of Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report. Draft pick details are from both Spotrac and RealGM.
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2023-24 record: 27-55; did not make playoffs
Added: C Zach Edey (first round, ninth pick); G Jaylen Wells (second round, 39th pick); G Cam Spencer (draft rights acquired from Detroit), F Mamadi Diakite (acquired from Brooklyn), C Jay Huff (two-way)
Lost: G/F Yuta Watanabe (Memphis declined 2024-25 club option); F/C Ulrich Chomche (draft rights traded to Toronto), Ziaire Williams (traded to Brooklyn), C Trey Jemison (waived)
Retained: G Luke Kennard (one year, $11M)
Extended: None
Returning from injury: G Ja Morant (torn right labrum); F Desmond Bane (back)
The skinny: I don’t hate the Grizzlies. I don’t hate the Grizzlies. But this exercise measures how much better a team is after its offseason moves than it was before. And Memphis just didn’t do very much this summer. That doesn’t mean I think the Grizz did nothing. I’m fine, for example, with them going for Edey at No. 9; he moved fast up draft boards after impressing in Chicago at the pre-draft combine, and he’s a four-year player coming out of college with back-to-back consensus National Player of the Year awards. And he’s 7-foot-4, 290 pounds, and should help immediately. But Memphis’ biggest offseason question is whether Morant is back up to speed and again dominant by the start of camp.
2023-24 record: 21-61; did not make playoffs
Added: F Deni Avdija (acquired from Washington); C Donovan Clingan (first round, seventh pick): 2027, 2029, 2030 second-round picks (acquired from New York); G Bryce McGowens (two-way); Devonte’ Graham (Exhibit 10)
Lost: G Malcolm Brogdon (traded to Washington); G Bub Carrington (draft rights trade to Washington); G Tyler Kolek (draft rights traded to New York); F Oso Ighodaro (draft rights traded to Phoenix via Oklahoma City and New York); 2029 first-round pick (traded to Washington; second-most favorable among Boston, Portland, Milwaukee); 2028, 2030 second-round picks (traded to Washington)
Retained: G Dalano Banton (Portland exercised 2024-25 club option); F Justin Minaya (two-way)
Returning from injury: C Robert Williams III (torn right knee ligament)
The skinny: This could change on a dime. The Blazers have multiple vets under contract through 2026 who could be enticing elsewhere (Deandre Ayton/Jerami Grant/Williams) and younger players like Shaedon Sharpe and Toumani Camara who also intrigue. Assuming Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons and Clingan and the 23-year-old Avdija make up Portland’s core going forward, Portland could quickly become a prime seller and load up on future picks and young players. For now, though, the Blazers are at the bottom looking up in the Western Conference, and there’s no particular reason to believe they’ll be able to move up. And this is coming from someone who loves Clingan and thinks he can be a big-time player in the league.
2023-24 record: 57-25; lost in conference semifinals
Added: F Dario Šarić (two years, $10.6M); G Russell Westbrook (two years, $6.8M); F DaRon Holmes II (draft rights acquired from Phoenix); F P.J. Hall (two-way); G Trey Alexander (two-way); F Spencer Jones (two-way)
Lost: G Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (signed with Orlando); G Reggie Jackson (traded to Charlotte); F Ryan Dunn (draft rights traded to Phoenix); 2029, 2030 second-round picks (traded to Charlotte)
Retained: C DeAndre Jordan (one year, $2.093M); F Vlatko Čančar (one year, $2.087M)
Extended: None
Returning from injury: None
The skinny: Maybe there’s a second act for the Nuggets. Maybe they’ll be laughing in a couple of years, after Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther and Holmes (who will miss this coming season rehabbing his torn Achilles) extended the championship window for Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. But it doesn’t feel like that right now. It feels like the Nuggets are losing ground with their roster in the West, with a lot of experience heading out the door. Bruce Brown left last summer; Caldwell-Pope departed this summer; Denver had to give Jackson and picks away to Charlotte just to clear cap space. Murray’s $209 million mega-extension is on the tee, and Gordon has a player option for 2025-26. Westbrook can still push the ball with the best of them — if Denver can get out and run. But the role players, including the ones from this year’s draft, have to be ready to lift their part of the boat.
2023-24 record: 51-31; lost in first round
Added: F Derrick Jones Jr. (three years, $30M); F Nicolas Batum (two years, $9.6M); G Kris Dunn (sign-and-trade from Utah); F Kevin Porter Jr. (two years, $4.7M); F Mo Bamba (one year, $2.6M); Cam Christie, guard (second round, 46th pick overall); opening Intuit Dome
Lost: F Paul George (signed with Philadelphia); G Russell Westbrook (traded to Utah); C Mason Plumlee (signed with Phoenix); 2030 second-round pick swap (Utah)
Retained: G James Harden (two years, $70M); F P.J. Tucker (exercised player option); F Kai Jones (Exhibit 10)
Extended: None
Returning from injury: F Kawhi Leonard (knee inflammation)
The skinny: I will never clown the Clippers because their dream pairing of George and Leonard didn’t work. At least they had the stones to go all-in on what seemed impossible at the time and had the organizational discipline to pull it off. But it’s over now, and that forces a franchise recalibration. A healthy Leonard going into the Intuit Dome is the new hope, with enough veteran ballast around him and Harden to be able to keep the Clips relevant in the West the next two years; after 2026, LA’s finances calm down, and the Clippers could be on the attack again for elite free agents. Having their own building rather than being a tenant in the Lakers’ home is a big psychic boost. But George’s departure is a big setback, and there’s no getting around that.
2023-24 record: 25-57 did not make playoffs
Added: G Davion Mitchell (acquired from Sacramento); Ja’Kobe Walter (first round, 19th pick); F/C Jonathan Mogbo (second round, 31st pick); G Jamal Shead (draft rights acquired from Sacramento); F Ulrich Chomche (draft rights acquired from Memphis); C Bruno Fernando (one year, $2.4M); G Branden Carlson (two-way); F Jamison Battle (Exhibit 10)
Lost: F Jalen McDaniels (traded to Sacramento); F Sasha Vezenkov (waived); G Javon Freeman-Liberty (waived)
Retained: G Immanuel Quickley (five years, $162.5M); F Bruce Brown (Raptors exercised 2024-25 club option); G Garrett Temple (one year, $3.3M)
Extended: F Scottie Barnes (five years, $224.9M)
Returning from injury: None
The skinny: Locking up Barnes and Quickley to be the faces of the franchise with RJ Barrett going forward works. The draft was solid with Walter, and Mogbo’s worth a second-round flier. Adding depth with Mitchell is a plus. I just don’t know if any of it after Barnes and Quickley will lift the Raptors out of their post-title doldrums. With so many teams in the East on the Sag for Flagg plan, Toronto could get a sugar high of rising in the conference that may not be real. But Barnes is a legit guy to build around. And it’s not a crime to keep a franchise’s powder dry, especially with a fan base as passionate as Toronto’s, for another, more advantageous, day.
2023-24 record: 36-46; lost in Play-In
Added: F Zaccharie Risacher (first round, first pick); F Larry Nance Jr. (acquired from New Orleans); G Dyson Daniels (acquired from New Orleans); C Cody Zeller (acquired from New Orleans via sign-and-trade); F David Roddy (acquired from Phoenix); F Nikola Đjurišić (draft rights acquired from Miami); 2025 first-round pick (acquired from New Orleans via Lakers); 2027 first-round pick (acquired from New Orleans; lesser of Pelicans/Milwaukee pick; top-four protected); G Seth Lundy (two-way); G Keaton Wallace (two-way); F Dominick Barlow (two-way)
Lost: G Dejounte Murray (traded to New Orleans); F Saddiq Bey (signed with Washington); C Bruno Fernando (waived)
Retained: G Vít Krejčí (four years, $10M); G Garrison Mathews (Hawks exercised 2024-25 club option)
Extended: None
Returning from injury: G Kobe Bufkin (right shoulder subluxation); Lundy (ankle surgery)
The skinny: At least Atlanta replenished some of the draft capital it expended in acquiring Murray from the Spurs in 2022 by getting back two future firsts and multiple depth players from the Pels. But the main thing is still the main thing: Where is this team going with Trae Young as its franchise player? Winning the lottery and taking Risacher provided an unexpected offseason bonus, but even that was tainted by Alex Sarr’s unwillingness to work out with Atlanta before the draft. Ice Trae is still just 26, in his prime and with another two years on his deal before his player option arrives. You can’t go full-tank mode as long as he’s on the roster; he’s too talented. But this feels like a franchise spinning its wheels.
2023-24 record: 47-35; lost in first round
Added: F Dalton Knecht (first round, 17th pick); G Bronny James (second round, 55th pick); G Blake Hinson (two-way); G Amrel Traore (two-way); F Colin Castleton (two-way); hired head coach JJ Redick
Lost: F Taurean Prince (signed with Milwaukee); G Spencer Dinwiddie (signed with Dallas); fired former coach Darvin Ham
Retained: G Max Christie (four years, $32M); G D’Angelo Russell (exercised 2024-25 player option); C Jaxson Hayes (exercised 2024-25 player option); F Cam Reddish (exercised 2024-25 player option)
Extended: F LeBron James (two years, $101M)
Returning from injury: None
The skinny: There’s not a ton to get overly excited about here so far. Having Knecht fall to them at No. 17, though, was a bonus; with his range, he’ll definitely help keep the floor better spaced than most of L.A.’s recent wing options. Only the Magic had a lower percentage of their points come via the 3 last season. Still, LeBron’s public willingness to take a substantial pay cut failed to dissuade any of his reported targets from signing elsewhere, leaving him and Anthony Davis with pretty much the same supporting cast from last season. It also remains incongruous, no matter Redick’s potential, to hire someone with no pro coaching experience to shepherd the final years of LeBron’s NBA career. Hiring Nate McMillan and Scott Brooks as top assistants to Redick’s staff was a solid move in that space.
2023-24 record: 21-61; did not make playoffs
Added: G/F Tidjane Salaun (first round, sixth pick); G K.J. Simpson (second round, 42nd pick); G Josh Green (acquired from Dallas); F/C Taj Gibson (one year, $3.3M); F Moussa Diabate (two-way); 2029, 2030 second-round picks (acquired from Denver); hired Jeff Peterson as general manager; hired head coach Charles Lee
Lost: F Dāvis Bertāns (waived); G Reggie Jackson (waived); F Leaky Black (waived); F J.T. Thor (Hornets declined 2024-25 club option); 2025 second-round pick (traded to Dallas); 2o25 second-round pick (traded to San Antonio via New Orleans)
Retained: F Miles Bridges (three years, $75M)
Extended: None
Returning from injury: G LaMelo Ball (right ankle injury); C Mark Williams (lower back contusion); Simpson (hamstring)
The skinny: Charlotte has to operate on the margins. It’s not going to be the first choice of free agents, and there isn’t enough talent on the roster to be first in line for big trades. So Peterson and his new front office made small moves that will help raise the floor, including bringing the well-regarded Lee from the Celtics’ bench. One thing is clear: Charlotte wasn’t going to remain helpless again if Ball can’t stay healthy, bringing in Jackson and Graham for point guard depth. Salaun feels like a reach at sixth, but a franchise like Charlotte has to take big swings every now and then. You can judge for yourself about the wisdom of bringing back Bridges, but he and Brandon Miller are a solid forward duo. If Ball and Williams return strong, the Bugs could have a nice bounce-back season.
2023-24 record: 46-36; lost in first round
Added: G Alec Burks (one year, $3.3M); C Kel’el Ware (first round, 15th pick); G Pelle Larsson (draft rights acquired from Houston); G Zyon Pullin (Exhibit 10); F Josh Christopher (two-way) G Dru Smith (two-way); F Keshad Johnson (two-way); G Isaiah Stevens (Exhibit 10)
Lost: F Caleb Martin (signed with Philadelphia); F Nikola Đjurišić (draft rights traded to Atlanta)
Retained: F Kevin Love (two years, $8M); F Haywood Highsmith (two years, $10.8M); C Thomas Bryant (one year, $2.8M); G Josh Richardson (exercised 2024-25 player option)
Extended: C Bam Adebayo (three years, $165.4M)
Returning from injury: F Jimmy Butler (sprained MCL)
The skinny: At this writing, Miami is hunkering down with its current core rather than looking to make a big splash via trade, as it explored all through last summer with Lillard. The Heat have reason to believe they can contend next season with a return to health from Butler, a full season from Terry Rozier and another young big in Ware to back up Adebayo. I’m not quite as sanguine about Miami’s chances to seriously contend in the East, especially after Philly and New York loaded up to challenge Boston, without a bigger offseason move. But Miami has always done things its way and believed in its own people, and usually with good results.
2023-24 record: 49-33; lost in first round
Added: G Tyus Jones (one year, $3.3M); G Monte Morris (one year, $2.8M); C Mason Plumlee (one year, $3.3M); F Ryan Dunn (draft rights acquired from Denver); F Oso Ighodaro (draft rights acquired from New York via Oklahoma City and Portland); F E.J. Liddell (acquired from Atlanta); G Jalen Bridges (two-way); G Collin Gillespie (two-way); G TyTy Washington (two-way); hired head coach Mike Budenholzer
Lost: G Eric Gordon (signed with Philadelphia); C Drew Eubanks (signed with Utah); fired former coach Frank Vogel
Retained: F Royce O’Neale (four years, $42M); F Josh Okogie (two years, $16M); F/C Bol Bol (one year, $2.4M); G Damion Lee (one year, $2.8M)
Extended: None
Returning from injury: None
The skinny: After a crazed 2023 offseason, the Suns were more low-key this summer. Granted, maybe out of necessity. Adding the two-time Coach of the Year in Budenholzer should get Phoenix better organized, but the Suns’ main challenge is keeping Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal on the floor. They logged 862 minutes together last season, which was just the sixth-highest amount of minutes among Phoenix three-man units. Even a small increase from the trio in time spent together could take the Suns from very good offensively (10th last season in offensive rating, 116.8) to elite. And elite is where championship-level teams do their work. But the Suns get solid marks for bolstering themselves at the point, with two of the best ever at protecting the rock in Jones (a ridiculous 7.35 assist-turnover ratio for the Wizards last season, the highest mark since individual turnovers were first tracked in 1977-78) and Morris (career 5.1 assist-turnover ratio).
(Illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; top photos of Zach Edey, Russell Westbrook and Bronny James: Melissa Majchrzak, Adam Hagy, Juan Ocampo / NBAE Getty Getty Images)
