Welcome to today’s MLB projections, your quick guide for daily MLB bets. There’s Moneyball, and then there’s … whatever we’re doing here! Below, you’ll find a LOT of numbers. With the help of Derek Carty’s THE BAT X and Austin Mock’s projection model, we’re sharing updated MLB odds, projections, best bets and top picks each day.
Carty and Mock both deploy intricate statistics and projection models to guide betting picks throughout the MLB season. Of course, the end goal of all this analysis is to enhance your baseball-watching enjoyment, whether you pore over odds all day or just want some deeper info on your favorite team’s matchup.
For those new to baseball betting (first of all, welcome and how did you end up here!), we’ve included some links and brief explainers. For the data lovers and betting pros, you can skip straight to the good stuff.
In the first set of data, Derek Carty’s EV Analytics considers everything from best odds value to the day’s weather. There are playoff and World Series likelihoods, quantified as percent chances, for all MLB teams. The data has also produced betting angles and player prop insights.
Below that, every weekday you’ll find Austin Mock’s projections, including “K Prop of the Day,” “Beat the Streak” pick and “Dinger of the Day.” Brief explanations of each are included below.
All odds you see are from BetMGM.
THE BAT X Projections
For newbies: In the tables below, you’ll see details for each MLB matchup, then a lot of numbers: “Moneyline” shows each team’s odds on BetMGM. “Implied Win%” is the chance a team has to win based on those BetMGM odds. “THE BAT X win%” is the chance a team has to win based on EV Analytics’ projections. “Cash Line” is how THE BAT X would price each team’s odds. “Value” is the percentage difference between the odds chances and our projections.
Obviously, the higher the value percentage, the better — which you can easily see from the color coding from red (bad pick) through to green (good pick).
Note: On mobile, you may have to scroll to see the color-coded “Value” column on the far right of the first set of tables.
Austin Mock’s daily model outputs
Austin Mock’s statistical model runs every MLB game 100,000 times to get projections for each day’s outcomes. He has the following picks for your daily MLB bets based on those projections.
K Prop of the Day
Mock’s model projects the best value bet on starting pitcher strikeout odds. First, you’ll see Mock’s pick for the best bet with BetMGM odds, then Mock’s projection for that pitcher’s actual strikeout count today. Finally, Mock’s record so far.
- Zack Littell over 4.5 -135
- Model projection: 5.4
- Mock’s overall record: 5-4 +0.35 units, +3.1% ROI
Beat the Streak Pick
The best player to pick to get a hit today, according to Mock’s model. Plus Mock’s current streak and overall record.
- Pick: Ronald Acuna Jr. (74.9%)
- Mock’s current streak: 0
- Mock’s record overall: 4-3
Dinger of the Day
Our Dinger of the Day is someone whose odds to hit a home run today are significantly different from Austin’s model projections. This isn’t so much a prediction on who will hit a home run, it’s more about the model vs. the posted odds having a large value discrepancy.
- Tristan Casas YES Home Run +600
- Model projection on Casas’ odds: +517
- Mock’s record overall: 0-8, -8.00 units -100.0% ROII
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