My plan to write about both positive and negative Minnesota Twins trends has become a little more difficult thanks to the team’s first 10-game winning streak since 2008. After sweeping three straight series, there’s simply a lot more good than bad to go around. (Unless you’re a “sausage expert” trying to avoid talking to Dan Hayes, in which case this past week has been a nightmare.)
While the Twins went from 7-13 to 17-13, here’s my look at four of their many positive trends and four of their few negative trends.
Trending up: Ryan Jeffers
Ryan Jeffers had a breakthrough 2023, leading American League catchers with an .858 OPS, and he’s taken another major step forward this season with a .949 OPS through 27 games. And that includes a 2-for-22 start, after which Jeffers has hit .368/.444/.662 with four homers and eight doubles in 21 games. He leads the team in Wins Above Replacement and Win Probability Added.
He’s started 14 of 30 games at catcher, similar to last season’s workload, but he’s on pace for 230 more plate appearances because the Twins have also used Jeffers at designated hitter on his days off from catching. He’s produced career-best power with a career-low strikeout rate, a rare blend that traces back to last offseason’s swing changes. Jeffers leads all MLB catchers in OPS since Opening Day 2023.
Hello, this is Ryan. I’d like to speak with you about your insurance plan. 📞 pic.twitter.com/xHvji2bDru
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) May 1, 2024
Trending down: Byron Buxton
Prior to leaving Wednesday’s game with knee soreness, Byron Buxton looked healthier than he had in a long time, playing 28 of the first 30 games and flying around center field in his return from knee surgery. On the other hand, Buxton hit just .250/.300/.391 with an ugly 32-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, including long stretches in which he seemed lost at the plate.
Buxton has chased too many pitches outside of the zone and also watched too many strikes down the middle, a doomed recipe. More worrisome, he whiffed on a career-high 38 percent of all swings, including a career-high 27 percent on in-zone pitches and a career-high 65 percent when chasing. Buxton’s approach and swing hadn’t clicked yet, and now he’s hurt again. Austin Martin time?
Trending up: Carlos Santana
When a 38-year-old gets off to a brutal start, as Carlos Santana did by hitting .141 with zero homers in his first 20 games, it’s natural to wonder if the end of the line is near. Twins officials rejected any talk of giving up on Santana this early, and he responded by homering four times in five games. His numbers still aren’t pretty overall, but Santana has certainly bought himself more time.
Santana has made a career out of having an elite eye at the plate, 25-homer power and much better contact skills than is commonly found in first basemen with similar profiles. Given his age, Santana uncharacteristically chasing and whiffing a lot in the first few weeks is still a potential red flag, but he’s largely gotten back to the disciplined approach that works and the Twins love his glove at first base.
Trending down: Kyle Farmer
Kyle Farmer was somewhat surprisingly retained for $6.3 million this offseason, with the Twins valuing his fielding flexibility, history of beating up left-handed pitching and leadership skills. He remains a clubhouse favorite, introducing the now-infamous home run sausage, but Farmer is 3-for-22 (.136) off lefties, and the Twins used Willi Castro over him to fill in for Carlos Correa at shortstop.
Almost any start as slow as Farmer’s can be blamed partly on bad luck, but his .185 expected batting average is only slightly better than his actual .136 mark. Farmer hasn’t chased a ton of bad pitches and he’s made plenty of contact, but nearly everything has been weakly hit for near-automatic outs and the 33-year-old has especially struggled to put decent swings on fastballs.
Trending up: Willi Castro
Castro hadn’t played shortstop regularly since 2021 and was off to a 3-for-29 start this season when Correa got hurt, but the Twins still turned to him over Farmer as the substitute shortstop. There were a few awkward-looking plays, but Castro fared remarkably well defensively under the circumstances, and the temporary position switch also jump-started his bat.
Castro has hit .338/.385/.592 in 19 games since Correa’s injury, trimming his strikeout rate, making hard contact from both sides of the plate and generally just looking like the player who was so valuable to the Twins in 2023. Now that Correa is healthy, Castro can slide back into the super-utility role that suits him best, seeing more action in the outfield and at third base.
HE’S WILLI FAST! pic.twitter.com/5cPtZ9D68T
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) May 1, 2024
Trending down: Matt Wallner
In demoting Matt Wallner to Triple-A St. Paul following his strikeout-filled start, Twins officials made it clear this trip to the minors was expected to last longer than just a few weeks. They felt Wallner needed time for a “full reset,” mentally and physically, and wanted the 26-year-old slugger to have extended success in St. Paul before potentially returning to the majors.
Wallner has turned that into something of a moot point by hitting .171 with one homer and an 18-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 10 games for the Saints, ruling out a speedy return. Trevor Larnach, a stylistically similar player, has also seized the chance to fill Wallner’s shoes, hitting .371/.439/.600 in 11 games for the Twins. Don’t write off Wallner, but don’t expect him back soon.
Trending up: Trevor Larnach
Larnach has gotten hot before, so 11 good games only means so much for a 27-year-old with a middling .717 OPS in parts of four seasons with the Twins. But the way in which he’s gotten hot is new and encouraging. He’s always struggled to hit off-speed pitches, making Larnach susceptible to slumps when opposing pitchers smartly avoid throwing him fastballs.
With that in mind, Larnach made mechanical changes hoping to put up more of a fight versus off-speed stuff. And so far, it’s working. He’s still crushing the few fastballs he sees — a league-low 38 percent — and now Larnach is at least doing some damage on non-fastballs, too. He’s hit .273 with a 43 percent whiff rate versus off-speed pitches, compared to .158 and 53 percent before this year.
Trending down: Watching games on TV
Comcast and Bally Sports are fighting, so Twins fans are unable to watch games on Minnesota’s largest cable system, further ruining an already infuriating local broadcast setup. But what struck me was the passive language the Twins used in their statement, saying in part: “This situation is a business negotiation between Comcast and Bally. The Twins have no role or voice in this matter.”
While perhaps technically true, this problem only exists because the Twins were television free agents this winter and re-upped with Bally, picking more money over the wider availability they’d promised. That was the Twins’ chance to have a “role or voice,” and they were well aware of Bally’s sordid history. Now fans are hurt by yet another consequence of the Twins’ decision. No hiding from that.
(Photo of Ryan Jeffers: Matt Krohn / USA Today)
