Minnesota Twins 2025 season preview: Roster breakdown, projections, and bold prediction

As of mid-August last season, the Minnesota Twins were cruising along toward a playoff spot with a 70-53 record and postseason odds above 90 percent. Then the bottom fell out, as the Twins went 12-27 down the stretch, sinking to fourth place in the American League Central at 82-80.

It was the worst collapse in team history, yet it didn’t lead to substantial changes. Carlos Santana and Max Kepler departed via free agency, and all three hitting coaches on manager Rocco Baldelli’s staff were replaced, but the Twins made no major trades or signings to alter the core of the roster.

“Run it back” is never going to be a popular post-collapse strategy, but it’s been 26 months since the Twins acquired a player making more than $6.5 million. For better or worse, the Twins’ front office is banking on the talent they’ve been building around for years to get the team back on track.

Bold prediction

Much like in 2023, when the Twins won the division title and snapped a two-decade playoff losing streak, starting pitching will carry them. Last year’s rotation ranked 11th in ERA among AL teams. This year’s starters will have a top-five ERA.

Projected starting lineup

Wallner is an unconventional leadoff choice, but the Twins want the 6-foot-4 slugger getting as many plate appearances as possible after posting an .866 OPS through 169 career games.

Correa had an All-Star first half in line with his Astros prime before another bout of plantar fasciitis sidelined him for two months. That looms large, but he’s healthy entering the third season of a six-year, $200 million deal.

Buxton topped 100 games last season for the first time since 2017 and his .859 OPS trailed only Aaron Judge among center fielders, but his lengthy injury history is why the Twins signed Harrison Bader as insurance.

Larnach finally broke through last season by staying healthier and making mechanical adjustments to put up more of a fight against off-speed pitches. Now he’s being counted on to replace Kepler in the middle of the lineup.

This was supposed to be Royce Lewis’ spot in the order, but a late-spring hamstring injury leaves the Twins in a familiar place of needing to replace him in the lineup and at third base. Miranda could be the prime beneficiary.

Signed to a non-guaranteed $1 million deal following a career-worst, injury-wrecked 2024 season, France created a lot of optimism with a strong spring training and is in line for the majority of starts at first base.

Castro is most valuable in a super-utility role, but the Twins could turn to him at second base while Lewis and Brooks Lee are out. Edouard Julien is also an option at second base.

Jeffers should be in line for slightly more playing time after splitting starts with Christian Vázquez the past two seasons despite his .784 OPS ranking fourth among catchers during that time.

Very good as a rookie and very bad as a sophomore, Julien has a window to hit his way back into the Twins’ plans while Lewis and Lee are injured. He’s likely to see time at second base in addition to designated hitter.

Projected rotation

López took a step backward after a fantastic 2023, but his advanced metrics were similarly strong and he set career highs for velocity down the stretch. For the Twins to have a top-five rotation, they need López to be consistently great.

Relatively minor second-half injuries have ruined what looked like Ryan breakouts in back-to-back seasons. His fastball velocity has ticked up each year and his secondary pitches are no longer a clear weakness.

Ober got knocked around in his first start of last season and then had a 3.60 ERA with 190 strikeouts in his final 177 1/3 innings. Perpetually underrated, he uses his 6-foot-9 frame and deep pitch mix to make up for so-so velocity.

Paddack’s veteran-ness and $7.5 million salary meant he didn’t have to compete for a rotation spot this spring, but he’ll have to fight off Zebby Matthews, David Festa and Andrew Morris to stay there all season.

Last offseason’s mechanical tweaks paid off for Woods Richardson, who increased his velocity and provided the Twins with much-needed rotation competence for 28 starts. Still just 24, can he unlock more upside?

Projected top relievers

Duran was less dominant last season, shedding 1.5 mph in average fastball velocity and 12 percent of his strikeouts compared to 2023. He was still very good, and still throws 100, but adjustments may be needed to remain elite.

After two years as a quality setup man, Jax’s raw stuff continued to tick up last season and he emerged as the Twins’ most trusted reliever. Still flying somewhat under the radar, he could be in line for more save chances.

Brock Stewart’s health is in question as he returns from August shoulder surgery, so Sands will be leaned on heavily following last year’s successful conversion to full-time relief.

How the Twins stack up

“Hope” is from Stephen J. Nesbitt’s annual Hope-O-Meter fan optimism survey. “Farm” is from Keith Law’s farm system rankings. “Bats” and “arms” are from Jim Bowden’s ranking of Opening Day lineups and rotations. “PWR” is from The Athletic’s preseason power rankings. Team projections come from Austin Mock, while Jake Ciely provided player projections.

(Top photo: Chris Tilley / Imagn Images)