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As the Kansas City Chiefs play for history and a potential third straight Super Bowl title, the player props betting market is teeming with options for fans to wager on or argue over.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce are household names with the star power and easy betting appeal.
But the Chiefs also offer an exciting secondary group of offensive talents, including running back Kareem Hunt and receivers Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy.
Philadelphia’s top-ranked defense represents the ultimate final exam for Mahomes and the Kansas City offense in the Super Bowl. How will that impact player props for the Chiefs?
Patrick Mahomes
After a modest statistical season (by his absurd standards), Mahomes battles an Eagles defense that was No. 1 in total yards allowed, second in points allowed per game and tops in overall passing defense during the regular season.
Mahomes’ passing yardage prop of 253.5 is an interesting starting point. In playoff games over the last three years (including this season), Mahomes reached 250 passing yards only three times in nine games.
The Chiefs won all of those matchups. And during a campaign in which Mahomes set a career low (apart from his rookie season backing up Alex Smith) for passing yards, average yards per completion and tied for his career low in touchdown passes (26), Kansas City still finished with an impressive 15-2 season.
Mahomes doesn’t need video-game numbers for Kansas City to win games — making it increasingly difficult to predict his individual production on a game-by-game basis.
Of course, if Philadelphia’s offense stays hot and makes Kansas City trade touchdowns, as was the case during the Chiefs’ 38-35 win over the Eagles in the Super Bowl two years ago, then Mahomes’ passing props will almost certainly go over.
The rushing market for Mahomes is dictated by increased usage in the postseason. Perhaps more conservative with running during the regular season to avoid injury, Mahomes has been noticeably more aggressive running in playoff games over the last two seasons.
Mahomes has exceeded his 5.5 rushing attempt prop in five straight postseason games. Failing to reach six carries in a game during the final nine matchups in the regular season, Mahomes already has 18 carries through Kansas City’s two playoff wins.
The Chiefs struggled with protection at times during the year, and Mahomes took the most sacks as the team’s season-long starter in his career (36). If the Eagles’ fearsome front pressures Mahomes consistently, he could be forced to scramble more than normal.
Travis Kelce
Despite a career low in receiving yards and touchdowns (disregarding his rookie season in 2013 when he missed all but one play due to injury), Kelce tops the Kansas City player props market among pass catchers.
One of the NFL’s all-time clutch performers during the postseason, Kelce’s receiving yards prop sits at 61.5. Reaching that total four times in the last nine games, Kelce didn’t need monster production as Kansas City’s offense returned to health to end the regular season.
If postseason history is any indication, Kelce’s receiving yards prop is low. Kelce went over 61 receiving yards in 14 straight playoff games spanning five postseasons until the Chiefs’ AFC Championship win over Buffalo when the All-Pro was held to 19 yards on two catches.
Kelce’s receptions prop of 6.5 is harder to gauge. With Brown getting healthy and Worthy developing a late-season rapport with Mahomes, Kelce is no longer the focal point of Kansas City’s offense. Kelce had seven or more receptions only three times in the last nine games.
Kareem Hunt
Since returning to Kansas City after Isiah Pacheco’s early-season injury, Hunt has been the primary back for the Chiefs. Even with Pacheco back in the lineup since late November, Hunt remains the lead back.
Hunt has a prop line of 45.5 rushing yards and 11.5 rushing attempts. Surpassing both of those totals with ease against Buffalo (64 yards on 17 carries), Hunt hitting the over in the Super Bowl could come down to the game script and Kansas City nursing a late lead in this matchup.
The Chiefs also continue to add complex wrinkles to their offense during the playoffs. Against the Bills, Kansas City introduced a successful new package featuring Hunt in the backfield, which resulted in two Chiefs rushing touchdowns.
I have never ever seen the @Chiefs run these plays#nfllive pic.twitter.com/iHygKh6gfI
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) January 27, 2025
Wide receivers
Electric first-round pick Xavier Worthy caught the eye of Mahomes toward the end of the regular season. Worthy saw 31 of his 98 regular-season targets during his final three appearances. In the postseason, Worthy offset inconsistent production from Chiefs pass-catching teammates with two solid outings.
Worthy surpassed 56.5 receiving yards and 5.5 receptions in three of his last five games. If the Super Bowl spotlight doesn’t shine too bright on the rookie, Worthy could be in line for another strong showing.
Markets for Marquise Brown are nearly impossible to gauge, given his recent return from injury. Playing only four games with Kansas City since his offseason acquisition and subsequent injury, Brown hasn’t developed a consistent connection with Mahomes.
Brown was held without a catch in the Chiefs’ playoff opener against Houston and only caught three passes for 35 yards against Buffalo. It’s tempting to take a talent like Brown to get over 41.5 receiving yards and 3.5 receptions made. But his limited postseason usage is a cause for concern.
(Photo of Travis Kelce: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
