Kentucky hasn’t made the Sweet 16 since 2019, a streak that led to John Calipari’s exit from Lexington. Will Mark Pope be able to lead Kentucky to a deep tournament run in his first season in charge? It starts with a first-round meeting against Troy.
We’ve got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans’ The Gaming Juice.
How to watch Kentucky vs. Troy
- What: Midwest Regional, first round
- Venue: Fiserv Forum — Milwaukee
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET, Friday
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: Fubo (try for free)
- Watching in-person? Get tickets on StubHub.
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No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats
Strengths: Kentucky is easily one of the most high-octane and versatile offensive teams in college basketball. It starts, believe it or not, with five-man Amari Williams, whose ability to be a facilitator and distributor from the top of the key allows Mark Pope’s zoom actions and backdoors to work so well. The Wildcats have shooters all over the floor, and while there isn’t one player on their roster that can be considered in the mix for All-American status, so many different weapons — Koby Brea’s shooting, Andrew Carr’s matchup problems or Otega Oweh’s ability to get to the rim — can win them a game. Oddly enough, what was a weakness may have actually turned into a strength. Since being ranked 112th in defensive efficiency by KenPom after a Feb. 4 loss to Ole Miss, UK has turned things around. While it will never be confused with Tennessee on that end of the floor, it doesn’t need to be. It only needs to be good enough. In the last month of the regular season, Kentucky ranked 16th in defensive efficiency. That’s good enough.
Weaknesses: Health. Plain and simple. Kerr Kriisa (foot) and Jaxson Robinson (wrist) are done for the season. Lamont Butler is playing through a shoulder injury that is not going to fully heal before the end of the season. It’s not about getting to 100 percent with Butler; it’s about getting to a point where he can play through the pain without having to miss more time. The three players are Kentucky’s top two point guards and emergency point guard. In their absence, Amari Williams played the point. Kentucky does not have a ceiling in that situation.
Outlook: Given their newfound defensive mettle, the Wildcats have real potential to make a March run because they made these gains without Butler, one of the nation’s best on-ball defenders. The injuries also forced Travis Perry and Trent Noah to play more minutes, and it’s safe to say the two freshmen can be used as effective bench weapons. The risk is that one hit could jar Butler’s shoulder and turn him back into a spectator, but it’s a risk worth taking. When Kentucky is right, it is as dangerous as any offense in the country.
—Rob Dauster
No. 14 Troy Trojans
Take Achilles’ advice, “He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life.” Equipped with the necessary bravery, the Trojans are a viable Cinderella candidate. Over their final dozen games, Troy ranked a laudable No. 83 in overall efficiency according to BartTorvik. Deep, cohesive and menacing on the offensive glass where it generates a second chance on 38.6 percent of its possessions, Troy punishes teams weak in the post. Additionally, it’s rather unyielding defensively. In games played since Feb. 1, it slotted No. 6 nationally in 2-point percentage defense, giving up a mere 43.6 percent. Though 3-heavy, Cross’ club only converted 29.9 percent from the arc. However, if Tayton Conerway, Myles Rigsby and Thomas Dowd catch fire along the perimeter, they’ll likely don a glass slipper.
—Brad Evans
This matchup can also be streamed on the NCAA March Madness Live app and Paramount+.
Kentucky vs. Troy odds
Streaming and Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Amari Williams: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
