For the first time, the best team from the tier of Football Bowl Subdivision leagues known as the Group of 5 is guaranteed a shot at a national championship. The 12-team College Football Playoff sets aside five automatic spots for the highest-ranked FBS conference champions, meaning at least one will go to a G5 team that wins its league. That makes the action outside the Power 4 leagues more important than ever to casual viewers around the nation.
In the 10 years of the four-team CFP era, when the highest-ranked G5 team earned a chance to prove itself in a New Year’s Six bowl, G5 representatives handled themselves well. Boise State beat Arizona, Houston beat Florida State, UCF beat Auburn and Tulane beat USC, good for a 4-6 record, with Cincinnati nearly beating Georgia as well.
But many of those top G5 teams have moved to Power 4 conferences. The result is a more wide-open G5 at a time when postseason access for the leagues has never been better.
To reach the CFP, you’ll have to win your conference first. So which teams should contend for their conference championship and a CFP spot? Here’s a breakdown of the teams most likely to be in the CFP mix at the end of the season.
Tier 1: The Favorites
Maddux Madsen beat out USC transfer Malachi Nelson for Boise State’s starting QB job. (Brian Losness / USA Today)
Boise State (Mountain West)
The Broncos fired head coach Andy Avalos after a 5-5 start in 2023, looking bound for one of their worst seasons since moving to the FBS. Defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson took over as interim head coach, won the next two games, beat UNLV in the Mountain West championship and earned the full-time job. Now he enters 2024 with old-school Boise State expectations.
Danielson brought back former NFL and Boise State head coach Dirk Koetter as offensive coordinator. With quarterback Taylen Green off to Arkansas, the offense held a quarterback battle between returnee Maddux Madsen and former five-star USC recruit Malachi Nelson, but Madsen (who beat out Green last year before injury) won the job. He’ll be helped by Ashton Jeanty, one of the best running backs in the country, who turned down big-money offers to play elsewhere. The defense brings back almost everyone from a group that didn’t allow more than 20 points in any of the final four regular season games.
Playoff outlook: The Broncos were the second program from a non-automatic qualifying conference to win a BCS game and the first Group of 5 school to play in and win a New Year’s Six game. In a 12-team College Football Playoff, can they claim another first? The expectations are now to win the Mountain West and be in CFP contention every year, especially in a Group of 5 that has seen UCF, Cincinnati and Houston leave. But the 2024 schedule is sneaky tough, with road games at Georgia Southern, Oregon, UNLV and Wyoming.
MVP: Running back Ashton Jeanty
Offensive player to watch: Quarterback Maddux Madsen
Defensive player to watch: Defensive end Ahmed Hassanein
X-factor: Kicker Jonah Dalmas
Impact newcomer: Wide receiver Chris Marshall
Liberty (Conference USA)
The Flames’ first season in an FBS conference went as well as possible: a 12-0 regular season, a Conference USA title and an appearance in the Fiesta Bowl (they lost 45-6 to Oregon). Even head coach Jamey Chadwell didn’t expect this rapid of a rise. Quarterback Kaidon Salter was a revelation, and the Flames quickly established themselves as a program that will be near the top of the G5 for years to come.
Chadwell is back, along with Salter (who entered and then withdrew from the portal) and talented running back Quinton Cooley. Top receiver CJ Daniels left for LSU, but the offense that led the FBS with 293.3 rushing yards per game should again be electric. The defense had holes at times (74th in yards per play allowed) but got help from an FBS-high 21 interceptions. The bad news is that several starters are gone from the secondary, as well as linebacker Tyren Dupree, the CUSA defensive player of the year.
Playoff outlook: It would be a stunner if Liberty doesn’t win CUSA this year. Liberty’s season will be determined by three games: at Appalachian State in Week 5, Jacksonville State on Oct. 30 and Western Kentucky on Nov. 23. The schedule is not difficult and won’t be for several years. The AAC was not happy that undefeated Liberty got the NY6 spot over two-loss champion SMU, and it will be interesting to see whether the CFP selection committee takes that Oregon result into account should it be forced to decide between an undefeated or 12-1 Liberty and another G5 champion.
MVP: Quarterback Kaidon Salter
Offensive player to watch: Running back Quinton Cooley
Defensive player to watch: Safety Brylan Green
X-factor: Wide receiver Tyson Mobley
Impact newcomer: Linebacker Teylor Jackson
GO DEEPER
College Football Playoff 2024 projections: The Athletic’s 12-team bracket
Memphis (American)
The Tigers got their breakthrough season under Ryan Silverfield, beating Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl and losing only to top-10 Missouri and AAC championship game participants SMU and Tulane. They lost running back Blake Watson to the NFL and defensive coordinator Matt Barnes to Mississippi State, but they bring back a lot of star power elsewhere.
The Tigers had the best offense in the AAC a year ago and bring back veteran quarterback Seth Henigan (more than 10,000 career passing yards), but they must rebuild the line and need a new running back to emerge. The defense was among the worst in the conference, especially in giving up explosive plays, and that will have to improve in 2024 for Memphis to follow through on its preseason AAC favorite billing.
Playoff outlook: The 2024 schedule is pretty tough, with road games at Florida State, South Florida, UTSA and Tulane, plus a Week 2 home game against Troy. But in an AAC where most of the other heavyweights are rebuilding, the Tigers are the favorite, and the AAC champ should always be in the CFP discussion.
MVP: Quarterback Seth Henigan
Offensive player to watch: Wide receiver Roc Taylor
Defensive player to watch: Linebacker Chandler Martin
X-factor: Safety Kourtlan Marsh
Impact newcomer: Running back Mario Anderson
Appalachian State (Sun Belt)
The Mountaineers appeared to be sliding last season, but they won six of their last seven games to finish 9-5, including an upset of undefeated James Madison and a trip to the Sun Belt championship game. App State returns a ton of experience and looks to be back to the App State of old.
Quarterback Joey Aguilar emerged as a star, breaking school records for passing yards (3,757) and passing touchdowns (33), and most of his receivers are back. Talented running back Nate Noel transferred to Missouri, but App State has a deep stable to fill the space. The questions come in the trenches. The offensive line needs multiple new starters to come through. The defense was the Sun Belt’s best at defending the pass but was one of the worst at stopping the run and saw several opposing running backs go off.
Playoff outlook: The 2024 schedule includes a trip to Clemson and a home game with Liberty, but App State will be the favorite in a gettable Sun Belt that features several rebuilding contenders such as Troy and James Madison. It also avoids a regular season matchup with Texas State. The Sun Belt is the only G5 league that never earned a New Year’s Six spot, never getting the same respect as the AAC. Something like an 11-2 season with a Sun Belt title should see App State in the CFP discussion, but that Sept. 28 game against Liberty will be monumental for both the SBC and CUSA.
MVP: Quarterback Joey Aguilar
Offensive player to watch: Running back Kanye Roberts
Defensive player to watch: Linebacker Nate Johnson
X-factor: Kicker Michael Hughes
Impact newcomer: Cornerback Jason Chambers
Tier 2: The Challengers
The Green Wave have a lot to replace after losing head coach Willie Fritz to Houston. (Matthew Hinton / USA Today)
Tulane (American)
After two consecutive AAC title game appearances, head coach Willie Fritz left for Houston and quarterback Michael Pratt left for the NFL. But Tulane made a steal of a coaching hire in Jon Sumrall, fresh off consecutive Sun Belt championships at Troy. The offense needs a new quarterback to emerge from a three-way race but will rely on talented running back Makhi Hughes. The defense led the AAC in scoring last year and returns many key pieces.
Playoff outlook: Fritz turned Tulane into almost an annual bowl team, unheard of in the program’s history. The nonconference schedule is tough with Kansas State, at Oklahoma and at Louisiana, along with most AAC contenders in league play. A bowl game should again be in the cards, but a third consecutive AAC title game trip would be hard-earned.
MVP: Running back Makhi Hughes
Offensive player to watch: Tight end Alex Bauman
Defensive player to watch: Defensive tackle Patrick Jenkins
X-factor: Whoever plays quarterback. The QB competition was expected to be a two-way race between last year’s backup Kai Horton and Oregon transfer Ty Thompson. Instead, redshirt freshman Darian Mensah is making waves in fall camp.
Impact newcomer: Wide receiver Mario Williams
Fresno State (Mountain West)
The Bulldogs saw a lot of turnover heading into 2023 but still went 9-4, though the defense unraveled during a 1-3 finish, including a shocking loss to New Mexico. Expectations are high entering 2024, but head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down just after Mountain West media days due to health issues. Tim Skipper, who was the interim head coach for the bowl game when Tedford previously stepped away, will lead the team this season. There’s a ton to like on offense, led by quarterback Mikey Keene. The defense needs to improve from last year’s collapse, but it has some new faces to do it.
Playoff outlook: The Bulldogs have been one of the best programs in the Mountain West since they joined the league, winning at least nine games seven times since 2012. Contending for the Mountain West title in the league’s new divisionless layout seems very doable. The schedule includes trips to Michigan, UCLA, UNLV and Air Force but avoids Boise State. Find a way to go 3-1 in those, and the Bulldogs can be in the auto-bid mix into December.
MVP: Quarterback Mikey Keene
Offensive player to watch: Running back Malik Sherrod
Defensive player to watch: Linebacker Malachi Langley
X-factor: Wide receiver Jalen Moss
Impact newcomer: Defensive end Korey Foreman
GO DEEPER
Feldman’s College Football Playoff bracket: Who’s in and who’s out after camp?
UNLV (Mountain West)
The Rebels shocked the world with a 9-5 season and an appearance in the Mountain West championship game, the program’s best showing in 40 years. Head coach Barry Odom enters his second season with a lot of momentum, returning offensive coordinator Brennan Marion and standout receiver Ricky White after leading the MW in scoring, but he lost quarterback Jayden Maiava, who transferred to USC to be the backup. If a quarterback can emerge from a crowded competition of FCS transfers, this offense should be very good once again. The defense finished 115th nationally in yards per play allowed last year, including dead last in yards per pass allowed. That side will need to be better.
Playoff outlook: It seems wild to say a bowl game should be the expectation at UNLV, given that the program has never played in consecutive bowls, but it’s true. The Rebels get Boise State at home and could be in Mountain West contention if a few things go the right way. The nonconference includes three Power 4 matchups at Houston, at Kansas and home against Syracuse. Two wins there would really boost a CFP case with a Mountain West title.
MVP: Wide receiver Ricky White
Offensive player to watch: Running back Jai’Den Thomas
Defensive player to watch: Linebacker Jackson Woodard
X-factor: Whoever plays quarterback. There’s also a three-way quarterback battle here, between last year’s third-stringer Cameron Friel, FCS Campbell transfer Hajj-Malik Williams and FCS Holy Cross transfer Matthew Sluka.
Impact newcomer: Linebacker Melvin Laster
Tier 3: The Dark Horses
USF’s Byrum Brown is one of the G5’s most exciting quarterbacks. (Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)
South Florida (American)
In Alex Golesh’s first season, the Bulls improved from 1-11 to 7-6, including a bowl blowout against Syracuse. Now there’s all kinds of excitement about the program, which has new facilities and plans for an on-campus stadium. Only two players in 2023 had at least 3,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards: Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown and Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. The defense finished 102nd nationally in yards per play allowed, but that was an improvement of nearly 30 spots from dead last from 2022. Nowhere to go but up.
Playoff outlook: The nonconference schedule is rough, with games against Alabama and Miami (Fla.), plus a trip to Tulane to open AAC play followed by a game against Memphis. If USF can get out of that stretch at even 2-3, it could set up a big finish to the season. AAC contention is possible if the defense takes a big step forward, but anything more than two losses could make a CFP auto-bid difficult.
MVP: Quarterback Byrum Brown
Offensive player to watch: Wide receiver Sean Atkins
Defensive player to watch: Linebacker Jhalyn Shuler
X-factor: Running back Nay’Quan Wright
Impact newcomer: Wide receiver Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen
Texas State (Sun Belt)
Texas State had a breakout year in head coach GJ Kinne’s first season, finishing 8-5 and reaching the first bowl game since the program moved up to the FBS in 2012. Kinne flipped the roster over on a Colorado-like level, with dozens of new additions, and it paid off. The Bobcats finished 11th nationally in scoring (36.7 points per game) but 114th in scoring defense — Texas State scored 77 points in a game and allowed 77 points in another game, which summed things up. Both sides return eight starters in 2024, and the Bobcats after some weird quarterback movement ended up with reigning Sun Belt player of the year Jordan McCloud transferring in from James Madison and setting up potentially another big year.
Playoff outlook: The Bobcats are the preseason West division favorite and have a dynamic quarterback in McCloud, now on his fourth school. A bowl game should be in the cards again. The nonconference schedule has an opportunity for some noteworthy wins (UTSA, Arizona State), and Sun Belt play avoids Appalachian State in the regular season. If Texas State takes another big step forward, the pieces could be set up for CFP contention with a Sun Belt title.
MVP: Running back Ismail Mahdi
Offensive player to watch: Quarterback Jordan McCloud
Defensive player to watch: Safety Kaleb Culp
X-factor: Defensive end Ben Bell
Impact newcomer: Defensive end Steven Parker
GO DEEPER
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Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
The Redhawks finally got their breakthrough season in Chuck Martin’s 10th year as head coach, going 11-3 and winning their second MAC title in five seasons. After losing quarterback Brett Gabbert to a season-ending leg injury against Toledo, Miami won its next five games. Gabbert is back for his sixth season, but many other key pieces are gone, including MAC sack leader Caiden Woullard (Oklahoma), 1,000-yard rusher Rashad Amos (Ole Miss) and Lou Groza Award-winning kicker Graham Nicholson (Alabama). Still, there’s enough to like to make Miami the preseason favorite in the Group of 5’s thinnest league.
Playoff outlook: Miami has reached a bowl game in each of the past four complete college football seasons, but it posted a 6-6 regular season twice. A bowl game should be doable again, but predicting anything bigger in the wide-open MAC is always difficult. The nonconference schedule includes Northwestern, Cincinnati and a trip to Notre Dame. Win those first two, and Miami could enter MAC play with CFP hopes.
MVP: Quarterback Brett Gabbert
Offensive player to watch: Running back Kenny Tracy
Defensive player to watch: Linebacker Matt Salopek
X-factor: Tight end Jack Coldiron
Impact newcomer: Wide receiver Andre Johnson
UTSA (American)
The Roadrunners should build former quarterback Frank Harris a statue after he led the program to a 32-9 record over the last three years of his seven-year career. Also gone is AAC defensive player of the year Trey Moore, who transferred to Texas, as are the team’s top two receivers and multiple offensive linemen. A lot of rotational players will step up into bigger roles. Quarterbacks Owen McCown and Eddie Lee Marburger have continued to battle in fall camp.
Playoff outlook: Trips to Texas State and Texas in nonconference play will be tough, but AAC play sees the Roadrunners avoid Tulane and USF and get Memphis at home. A bowl game looks to be in the cards, but anything more will depend on quarterback play.
MVP: Running back Kevorian Barnes
Offensive player to watch: Wide receiver Devin McCuin
Defensive player to watch: Linebacker Donyai Taylor
X-factor: Quarterback Owen McCown
Impact newcomer: Cornerback Denver Harris
Tier 4: Just Missed the Cut
Toledo: The Rockets lost quarterback and MAC player of the year Dequan Finn and running back/offensive player of the year Peny Boone to the portal. New stars will have to emerge.
Troy: New head coach Gerad Parker has to rebuild after Tulane hired away Jon Sumrall, but this is a program used to winning, with five 10-win seasons since 2016 and consecutive Sun Belt titles.
James Madison: Coach Curt Cignetti left for Indiana and took a lot of really good players with him, plus McCloud transferred to Texas State. Still, JMU hasn’t had a losing season since 2002. A winning culture is still in place.
Air Force: You might be sensing a trend here: winning programs with a lot of turnover. The Falcons must replace nearly their entire offense, plus much of the defense. But coach Troy Calhoun usually figures things out.
Army: The Black Knights join the AAC this year, making them eligible for this spot. Army has consecutive 6-6 finishes without a bowl appearance, but quarterback Bryson Daily is a piece to build around.
(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb for The Athletic; Photos: Getty Images; Marc Sanchez, Joe Robbins, Megan Briggs, Norm Hall, Matthew Pearce / Icon Sportswire)
