This series answers numerous fantasy football questions following the Week 9 games. It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article.
Note: The advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are PPR. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. If not specified differently, statistical rankings are through the Sunday night game.
Is this the new ceiling for Tyreek Hill?
Tyreek Hill’s fantasy managers were thrilled when Tua Tagovailoa returned to the Miami Dolphins starting lineup after missing Weeks 3-7 due to a concussion. The hope was that Tagovailoa would catapult Hill well above the dismal fantasy point totals he posted when Tagovailoa was out — so far, that hasn’t happened.
In the two weeks following Tagovailoa’s return, Hill has generated a total of 25.2 points. He has tallied 12 or more points in each game, so it’s not a disaster, but it sure isn’t what was hoped for when managers took him in the first round in this year’s drafts.
GO DEEPER
Fantasy football Week 9 takeaways: Saquon Barkley is a superhero, Caleb Williams is not progressing and more
Can Hill get back to that level? Or is it time to accept that this is his new 2024 scoring ceiling and adjust starting lineups accordingly?
Identifying the problem
Tagovailoa has a strong track record when it comes to vertical passing. He ranked fourth in vertical points per game (PPG) in 2023 with 7.8 and third in stretch vertical PPG with 4.2. That downfield prowess hasn’t been the case over the past two weeks. Tagovailoa ranks 29th in vertical PPG with a meager 3.1 and 22nd in stretch vertical PPG with 1.2.
The two-week decline isn’t due to a lack of pass volume, even when facing a two-safety shell designed to stop deep passing. Miami is tied for second in pass attempts versus a two-safety shell the past two weeks and leads the league in completions versus that type of coverage.
The issue is that Tagovailoa isn’t testing the main weakness of a two-safety shell. That type of defense is often called middle of the field open (or MOFO for short … yes, really) and can be exploited with deep passes down the middle of the field (usually post or seam routes).
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Sign Up
Hill has been running more post routes (16) than any wide receiver over the past two weeks and leads the league in post routes run versus post-snap MOFO coverages (7) in that span. The problem is that Hill has been targeted on only one of those post routes — a pass defended by Buffalo in the first quarter of Week 9.
Hill’s lack of post route targets is the main reason why only 5.3 percent of Tagovailoa’s passes in the past two weeks have been stretch vertical aerials versus MOFO coverage. That pace ranks 22nd, and his vertical pass pace ranks 23rd, a huge contrast to 2023.
Tagovailoa was second in post-snap MOFO vertical passes (35.8 percent) and 12th in stretch vertical passes (10.8 percent) in that season. Then, the Dolphins QB ranked first in pass PPG versus a post-snap MOFO defense. Tagovailoa was also the only quarterback with more than 2,000 yards passing on those plays, with a league-leading 13 touchdowns.
Tagovailoa has ranked 11th overall in that category over the past two weeks, largely due to dink-and-dunk throws. Only 0.9 of his 7.5 points versus a MOFO defense resulted from vertical throws.
Spinning it forward
Miami’s approach to utilizing Hill versus MOFO coverage hasn’t changed, but Tagovailoa isn’t throwing those passes nearly as often.
The Dolphins’ schedule doesn’t provide much help either. Miami has three red-rated deep coverage matchups for the rest of the fantasy season, to go along with four yellow-rated ones and only one green-rated one.
A turnaround at this point in the season may not happen, and Hill’s subdued scoring pace may be a sign of things to come.
Harrison has been a fantasy scoring nightmare of late. He posted 5.6 points or fewer in four of the past five games and should be up for bench consideration unless or until things improve.
Identifying the problem
In the Week 1 installment of this series, I noted that Harrison’s subpar Week 1 was due to Kyler Murray’s two-year stretch of having the lowest vertical PPG among quarterbacks. Murray is doing better in that category overall this year, with 5.3 points, ranking 18th. However, 65.4 percent of his vertical production occurred in two games. Take those contests out, and Murray is averaging 2.3 vertical PPG. For perspective, among passer rating qualified quarterbacks, only two have a lower vertical PPG this season.
Those two games are why Harrison ranks 14th in vertical PPG, but take those contests out of his equation (50.3 points), and he is averaging only 2.8 vertical PPG.
Harrison also offers very little in terms of short pass production. He is tied for 79th among wide receivers in short PPG and is third among Arizona wideouts in that area.
Spinning it forward
Harrison is overly reliant on vertical passes for his fantasy production, and Arizona’s upcoming schedule is problematic for such dependence. Over the next six weeks, the Cardinals have five matchups versus teams that have yellow-rated deep coverage, along with a bye in Week 11. Then, they have a green-rated matchup in Week 16 and a red-rated matchup in Week 17. Add it up, and there’s not exactly a highly favorable road map for improvement.
I’ll echo a suggestion I made earlier this year: Trade Harrison away if you can get a good deal for him now, or wait until he has a solid game and then try again. The highly touted rookie’s situation will not likely result in consistent production in 2024.
Is it time to throw in the towel on the Bears’ up-and-down offense?
The Chicago offense was a fantasy scoring powerhouse in Weeks 3-6. In that span, the Bears had 10 players score 20-plus points in a game and 18 instances of a player scoring 14 or more points.
That trend has gone south since then. In the two weeks following a Week 7 bye, Chicago has tallied zero performances of 20-plus points and only three instances of a 14-plus point contest.
Identifying the problem
A favorable schedule had a ton to do with the Bears’ success in Weeks 3-6. During that span, their four opponents — Indianapolis, Los Angeles Rams, Carolina and Jacksonville — rank between 22nd and 31st in PPG allowed this year.
Compare that with the Bears’ opponents in other weeks. In Weeks 1-2, Chicago faced Tennessee and Houston, teams that rank eighth and ninth, respectively, in PPG allowed. In Weeks 8-9, the Bears faced Washington and Arizona, teams that rank 12th and 23rd, respectively, in PPG allowed.
Inevitably, Chicago tends to have fantasy scoring success versus weak foes and limited production versus stronger ones.
Spinning it forward
The Bears’ next eight opponents during the fantasy regular season and playoffs are New England, Green Bay, Minnesota (twice), Detroit (twice), San Francisco and Seattle.
The Packers and 49ers rank 10th and 11th, respectively, in PPG allowed, so those are two games (Weeks 11 and 14) where the Bears offense isn’t likely to yield many solid start prospects. It gets better in the other weeks, as every one of Chicago’s foes ranks between 17th and 20th in PPG allowed.
Still not quite the upside of the Week 3-6 window, the matchups outside of Weeks 11 and 14 offer a higher production ceiling for Chicago players than in recent performances. The bottom line is to stay patient, as the overall trend is pointing upward.
D’Andre Swift’s production may be an exception. The Bears have five consecutive red-rated rush defense matchups in Weeks 12-16, a daunting schedule in the stretch run and into the playoffs. Consider trading Swift while he still has solid fantasy value following a 14.2-point day against Arizona.
(Photo of Tyreek Hill: Alex Grimm / Getty Images)
