It’s only fair to hit the un-panic button too.
If we’re going to routinely overreact to the plight of NBA teams this time of year, assessing which ones are off to such bad starts that they deserve the full PANIC METER treatment, then the opposite should occur when said team suddenly appears to be formidable again. With nearly a quarter of the schedule in the books for most teams and the weight of expectations bearing down because of all the moves they made to get to this point, here are a few who deserve to be seen, as the kids say, at this still-early juncture.
Milwaukee Bucks
When I wrote about Milwaukee’s uncertain future in mid-October, with Giannis Antetokounmpo himself acknowledging that significant change could come if the team didn’t meet its title-contending expectations, there was a sense of organizational optimism that belied the premise. And then the games began.
By the time the Bucks fell to 2-8 on Nov. 10, all those teams that would love for Antetokounmpo to ask for a trade started wondering if the panic that would preempt that sort of superstar move might set in a whole lot sooner than expected. Yet while league sources say the Bucks have continued to tell interested teams, in essence, that they’re living in a fantasy world with these sorts of superstar desires, that didn’t keep the league-wide chatter from growing louder by the loss. Lo and behold, winning — nine times in their last 11 games, to be exact — has proven yet again to be the only real way to quiet that kind of noise.
The Bucks are now 11-10, good for fifth in the East and just 1 1/2 games behind New York for fourth. Even with a Wednesday night loss to Atlanta, this stretch of quality Bucks basketball is everything they’d hoped for when they landed Damian Lillard two summers ago. And Milwaukee, against all odds, suddenly looks legitimate enough to warrant more patience on the personnel front.
Here are the before and after splits…
- Through Nov. 11 (2-8 record): 22nd in net rating, 22nd in defensive rating, 20th in offensive rating.
- Since Nov. 12 (9-2): Eighth in net rating, sixth in offensive rating, eighth in defensive rating.
More importantly, Antetokounmpo and Lillard are playing an elite brand of basketball that even inspired the “Greek Freak” to deem their chemistry “incredible” recently. Just look at the production from their (finally) dynamic duo during this stretch, and you start to realize that the only logical conclusion — for now, at least — is to give this group more time. Besides, as we’ve discussed before, the prohibitive nature of their strained salary cap situation means there isn’t any sort of “Plan B” available that makes any sense.
Giannis (in 10 games): 33.5 points (62.4 percent overall on 20.2 shots per), 10.6 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 1.7 blocks.
Lillard (in eight games): 25.9 points (46.1 percent overall on 17.6 shots per; 41.3 percent from three-point range on 9.4 attempts per), 8.6 assists, 4.3 rebounds.
If the Bucks keep winning games with Antetokounmpo putting up these sorts of gaudy numbers, then the prospect of him wrestling the MVP award back from Denver’s Nikola Jokić is not outside the realm of possibility. The 34-year-old Lillard, meanwhile, is making a strong case to be on his ninth All-Star team. A fun fact about these two, per NBA.com/stats, that says it all: Antetokounmpo and Lillard are two of the league’s seven players who are currently averaging at least 25 points, six assists and four rebounds (the others are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, De’Aaron Fox, Jokić , Luka Dončić and LaMelo Ball).
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The 3-point shooting has been a massive factor in the offensive improvement, as the Bucks were 16th in the league in long-range percentage during their awful start (35.6 on 35.4 attempts through Nov. 11) and are first ever since (41.9 percent on 39.3 attempts). Big man Brook Lopez has been the game-changer on that front (27.7 percent shooting from 3 on 4.7 attempts per game through Nov. 11 compared to 41.8 percent on 6.1 attempts since). What’s more, three-time All-Star Khris Middleton will finally return from his offseason ankle surgeries one of these days and give them yet another threat from outside.
Through it all, Antetokounmpo has continued his role as the resident truth-teller.
“People panicked — I know they did,” Giannis Antetokounmpo told Yahoo Sports on Tuesday night regarding the early-season struggles. “That’s what I’m saying, people panicked. Me? Get your backs ready, lift a little bit more weight, lat pull down, get your lats going. Tie your shoes up and let’s go. We here now.”
There’s this disclaimer at the end of this Bucks love letter, though: If they start sliding back the other way before the Feb. 6 trade deadline, or in the summer after an unfulfilling end to the season, the chatter regarding what it might mean will most certainly return. Like it or not, that’s just how this league works.
Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks appear to be figuring things out. (Mike Stobe / Getty Images)
New York Knicks
The downside of making blockbuster trades in the NBA is that the instant expectations are almost always unrealistic. And the Knicks, lest anyone forgets, decided to do two of them in approximately three months by adding Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns in late June and early October, respectively (and three in nine months if you go back to the OG Anunoby deal in late December).
So when they started just 5-6, with Bridges looking like the “Monstars” stole his defensive talents and fellow newbie Towns figuring out how to impact winning while showcasing his innumerable offensive talents, it didn’t take long for the second-guessing to begin.
Much like the Bucks, the Knicks’ decision to go all-in meant their asset base was depleted, their payroll bloated and the stakes surrounding it all severely spiked. And also like the Bucks, these Knicks — who have won eight of their last 10 — appear to finally be figuring it out. But with this roster looking so much different from the gritty, defensive-minded one that took the Knicks to the second round of the playoffs last season, here’s the question that will loom large from now until the postseason rolls around: Can coach Tom Thibodeau mold this offense-first Knicks squad into true title contenders in these next few months?
Before and after this latest turnaround, the defense that used to be their calling card has been mediocre (20th in defensive rating). But the offense, with the 29-year-old Towns having perhaps his best season (25.1 points, a league-leading 13.1 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game) and Jalen Brunson proving to be a willing partner while still putting up big-time numbers (25.2 points, 7.7 assists), has been nothing short of special.
Especially in these past 10 games.
In that span, the Knicks’ league-best offensive rating of 123.6 (points scored per 100 possessions) is significantly ahead of second-place Boston (120.3). More importantly, there are signs that Bridges — whose underwhelming impact has been a major issue — is moving in the right direction.
In that opening 11-game stretch, the Knicks had a net rating of minus-0.6 when he was on the floor and plus-20.4 when he was off. Since then, they have been plus-18.1 when he was on the floor and minus-21 when he was off. That’s some Jokić-level stuff when it comes to the on-off math, but also quite confusing considering some of the subplots that have unfolded in that time.
Bridges was benched for the entire fourth quarter in a win against Charlotte on Friday, with Thibodeau giving those minutes to super sub Miles McBride. Bridges shot just 3 of 15 from the field in a loss at Utah on Nov. 23. The growing pains remain.
Still, there has been serious progress on this front. And the Knicks, as a result, are looking like legitimate threats in the East again. Albeit with a very different look.
Orlando Magic
When Paolo Banchero went down with a torn right oblique in a game against Chicago on Oct. 30, it was only natural to assume the worst about what it might mean for the Magic.
After all, the 22-year-old forward was just one game removed from his first 50-point game (in a win over Indiana), one season removed from his first All-Star showing and two seasons away from those Rookie of the Year honors that cemented his place as the young face of their franchise. Sure enough, Orlando proceeded to lose the next four games and drop to a 3-6 start that seemingly spelled doom for its season.
Or … not.
The Magic have won 13 of 15 games since, with fourth-year small forward Franz Wagner making a strong case for a first All-Star berth of his own in Banchero’s absence (27.4 points, 6.7 assists, 5.9 rebounds and two steals per game in that span) and fourth-year coach Jamahl Mosley putting in early work for his Coach of the Year candidacy. The Magic’s defense, which was ranked third last season, is tops in the league since Banchero was injured (and third overall).
They have a dominant defensive backcourt with Jalen Suggs and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, with both guards making up for their lack of offensive efficiency with their lock-down skills on the other end. Caldwell-Pope was off to a horrid shooting start after signing in Orlando last summer, but his much-needed shot is finally coming around (he’s hit 18 of 36 3s in his past five games). Mo Wagner (12.9 points, 5.2 rebounds per) is big off their (deep) bench.
And as if that’s not enough positivity to share about this bunch, there’s this: Banchero said in mid-November that he’s hoping to return before Christmas. And while that timeline might be overly optimistic, the mere idea of reinserting him into this lineup that is already so loaded is enough to make you wonder if Orlando isn’t capable of making a deep playoff run when he’s back in the fold.
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Dallas Mavericks
For all of Luka Dončić’s greatness, these past few years have made this much obvious: He can’t do it by himself.
It’s a simple statement, to be sure, but also one that’s at the heart of what Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison has been trying to build. So when the Mavs went 5-1 without Dončić recently as he recovered from a wrist injury, it was as good a sign as any that this group has managed to evolve (Dallas was a combined 8-17 without Dončić during the previous two regular seasons).
Yet the even more interesting part is that the Mavs’ turnaround began when Dončić went down, as they started 5-7 (with Dončić playing in all 12 of those games) before winning nine of their last 10 (with Dončić playing in four of those games) and moving into third in the West (tied with Memphis at 14-8). During that span, they have the league’s second-best net rating behind New York (10), the third-best offensive rating and the eighth-best defensive rating.
The non-Dončić scoring has been by committee, with Kyrie Irving (22.7 points per game), Naji Marshall (16.1), P.J. Washington (15.2), Quentin Grimes (14), Daniel Gafford (13.4) and Spencer Dinwiddie (12.6) all in double digits. Second-year center Dereck Lively II is as impactful as ever, averaging 9.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.6 blocks per game (his per-game plus-minus of plus-5.9 is tied with Grimes for second on the team, with Dončić first at 6.8).
All of this progress is happening, of course, even though their major free-agency addition, Klay Thompson, has mostly struggled. The 34-year-old is on a career-low pace in points, field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage, but still has plenty of time to find his place in their system before the playoffs.
The Grizzlies are winning with and without Ja Morant. (Kevin Jairaj / Imagn Images)
Memphis Grizzlies
It’s so tempting to declare that the Grizzlies are back.
This team that looked destined for Western Conference supremacy just a few years back, and which suffered such an organizational regression when Ja Morant’s run of off-court mistakes derailed their plans, has been nothing short of elite since late October. They have the best net rating since then (10.8, with Boston second at 9.8) while going 12-5 (after a 2-3 start).
Without even diving into the complicated context, that statement alone would seem to be reason enough to deem Memphis a contender again. And considering all the skepticism that surrounded the team coming into this season, when scribes like yours truly highlighted the departures of Dillon Brooks, De’Anthony Melton, Steven Adams, Tyus Jones and Kyle Anderson as evidence for why they might struggle, this turn of events is worthy of serious praise.
But here’s the confusing part: During this 17-game span in which they’ve been among the best in the basketball business, Morant has played in just eight games because of a hip injury (he returned recently) while his backcourt mate, Desmond Bane, has played in just 10 (oblique injury). Those two players represent two-thirds of the Grizzlies’ core, with center Jaren Jackson Jr. (who played in all 17 games) the other founding member. Those three, who have played together just four times in this recent span (going 3-1), account for 56.7 percent of Memphis’ payroll this season ($169 million in all).
This notion of winning without your main players available is a great problem to have, but it still makes it tough to handicap how they’ll look for the long term when health — or lack thereof — is such a constant theme. Yet with players like Jaylen Wells, Santi Aldama, Scotty Pippen Jr., Jake LaRavia and others holding it down in impressive fashion, this Grizzlies team that so many pegged as a Play-In Tournament candidate has proved to be far deeper than we realized.
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(Top photo of Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
