Dan Quinn won’t likely be the most aggressive head coach in Saturday night’s divisional-round game, though there’s no team more effective on fourth down than his Washington Commanders.
The Detroit Lions are heavily associated with fourth-down plays thanks to head coach Dan Campbell’s frequent go-for-it decisions. Those decisions were made from a position of strength — among the top nine teams in attempts (33, fourth overall), only Detroit qualified for the playoffs. Teams went from historically viewing fourth-down tries as desperation plays to incorporating them into strategic game plans regardless of the score.
Despite the high frequency, the Lions finished sixth in conversion percentage (66.7). Quinn’s Commanders were much better.
Washington’s 87 percent conversion rate (20-of-23) in the regular season was No. 1 in the NFL. According to TruMedia, only the Peyton Manning-led 2000 Indianapolis Colts were more efficient this century among teams with at least 10 attempts.
“We’ve been great on fourth down,” offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said recently. “I think that’s a huge stat for people in this day and age in football. If you are over 80 percent on fourth down, you’ll give yourself a lot of extra possessions and extra points that way.”
The fourth-down greatness is a direct result of the calmness displayed by Jayden Daniels. The heralded rookie quarterback completed all eight fourth-down passes during the regular season for 77 yards, two touchdowns and a 146.4 QB rating. No other quarterback this century with at least eight attempts is better than 75 percent. Manning, at 70.8 percent, is highest among passers with at least 20 fourth-down pass attempts.
Tight end Zach Ertz is Daniels’ most frequent fourth-down target, while third-round rookie Luke McCaffrey has a team-best 37 yards. Pro Bowl receiver Terry McLaurin and Olamide Zaccheaus have caught touchdown passes from Daniels on fourth down. McLaurin’s 5-yard touchdown came in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s wild-card win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington’s fifth consecutive game decided on the final play from scrimmage.
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On the ground, Daniels averages 9.4 yards on nine career fourth-down carries. Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson is second among quarterbacks since 2000 at 5.1 yards per carry on 27 attempts. Daniels also ranks first in offensive EPA (expected points added) per dropback at 3.06 (minimum 13 dropbacks).
These numbers define a small sample size — Manning (1.11) and Patrick Mahomes (1.05) are the best in EPA per dropback among quarterbacks over two or more seasons — but Daniels’ prowess in pressure situations is evident.
“They’re confident in us to get the first down,” Daniels said, “so I’m confident in the guys to go out there and block, make plays and move the chains.”
The Commanders went 3-of-5 in Sunday’s 23-20 road win over the Buccaneers to advance to the NFC divisional round.
• First quarter, fourth-and-2 from Bucs’ 20: Daniels has McLaurin one-on-one out wide, but Tampa Bay’s edge rushers quickly attack the pocket, leading to the rookie grounding a pass at the feet of Austin Ekeler.
• Second quarter, fourth-and-1 from Bucs’ 23: Ekeler runs for 2 yards. The drive ends with Daniels’ 10-yard touchdown pass to Dyami Brown for a 7-3 lead.
• Third quarter, fourth-and-5 from Bucs’ 37: Daniels connects with Ertz for 14 yards.
• Fourth quarter, fourth-and-goal from Bucs’ 3: Same drive. Washington stalls after a pass interference penalty moves the ball to the 1-yard line. Bucs linebacker Lavonte David sniffs out Ertz running the same route on the game-winning touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 17. Incomplete.
• Fourth quarter, fourth-and-2 from Bucs’ 5: After stopping Washington, Tampa Bay botches a handoff exchange, and linebacker Bobby Wagner recovers in the red zone. Four plays later, Daniels finds McLaurin running an inside route in the end zone.
4th & 2. THEY GOT IT. @Commanders
📺: #WASvsTB on NBC
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Attempting fourth downs on drives led to 14 points, whereas kicking field goals each possession would have maxed out at 12 points. Having a dual-threat quarterback with a knack for making good decisions pushes Quinn’s assertiveness button.
“It is something we practice a lot. It’s something that is part of our game. A lot of it has to do with No. 5 (Daniels),” Quinn said following Washington’s first playoff win since the 2005 season. “Sometimes he can make a play that takes place that was not the huddle call by using his legs.”
Tampa Bay did not attempt a fourth-down conversion. Detroit envisions going for it when it gets off the team bus. Lions quarterback Jared Goff completed 12 of 16 passes on fourth down for 119 yards, five touchdowns and a 135.2 QB rating. Only MVP candidate Josh Allen finished with a higher touchdown-to-attempt percentage than Goff (31.3). Daniels tied with Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa at 25 percent.
Detroit wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown paces the NFC’s top seed on fourth down with five receptions for 36 yards and two touchdowns. Washington cornerback Marshon Lattimore is likely St. Brown’s primary cover on any down, despite working through a lingering hamstring injury and struggling against the Buccaneers.
Wide receiver Mike Evans caught all seven of his targets Saturday night, with six against his longtime rival for 84 yards and a 1-yard touchdown. All six receptions went for first downs. Quinn said on Monday that he doesn’t look at the box score as the defining aspect for any player. His view of Lattimore is a needed “competitor” who maintained that energy despite missing Washington’s final two regular-season games and six overall since a midseason trade with the New Orleans Saints.
Despite the cornerback sitting out the Commanders’ Friday practice last week for “rest” and seeming a step behind Evans throughout, Quinn believes Lattimore is 100 percent “in terms of the competitiveness, strength.” The coach said there is an acknowledgment that Lattimore is “working back” from the lengthy absence. “There’s an element of doing the right thing to make sure we don’t overload (the hamstring),” Quinn said.
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Slowing down Detroit’s passing game won’t be all on Lattimore. It will take a village to corral St. Brown, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, tight end Sam LaPorta and wide receiver Jameson Williams. Knowing the Lions will put up points will cause Quinn and Kingsbury to remain aggressive. The initial failure on fourth down against the Buccaneers didn’t lead them to deviate from the season-long approach.
“We were going to be bold but not reckless. I think that’s who we are the whole season,” Quinn said. “But when you do get stopped early, you just have to stay the course. ‘Hey, keep your chin tucked and keep swinging,’ knowing that this will be a game that will go all the way down to the end.”
The persistence led to McLaurin’s touchdown and a 20-17 lead with 9:46 remaining against Tampa Bay.
“We had gotten stopped on the fourth down with the throw to Zach in the end zone,” Quinn said. “To have the ball right there and give us another crack at it at the end, that’s what it was about.”
Considering the approaches of the Commanders and Lions, Saturday night’s battle might involve aggressive fourth-down swings in a game where a win means playing in the NFC championship.
(Photo of Dan Quinn: Kim Klement Neitzel / Imagn Images)
