Well, well, well, would you look at that. Finally, we have a winning week. It’s been quite some time, but it feels good to be back on the good side of things after a dreadful fall of betting on college football. Looking back on last week’s card, we were pretty close to going 4-1 but North Carolina found every possible way to not stay within the number against Clemson. But hey, a winning week is a winning week. Hopefully we can finish out the regular season with two in a row.
Last week’s record: 3-2, +0.75 units
Season record: 41-55-2, -19.07 units, -17.9% ROI
Six plays this week but unfortunately, as of right now, I don’t have any Tuesday or Friday action. There is a chance something on Friday gets added, but to make up for it, I gave you some action in The Game, as if you didn’t have enough of a reason to watch it already. Good luck to us!
Week 13 college football best bets
Please make sure to shop around at various sportsbooks for the best possible number. Over the course of the season, a half point here or five cents there will add up.
Worst line to bet is the final number that I would make a bet at. For example, if I bet under 49.5 and the “worst line to bet” is 49 -110, I would not make that bet at 48.5 -110 or 49 -115.
All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs unless otherwise noted. All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Ohio State +3.5 (-110) at Michigan
I think there is some upside to taking the Buckeyes at 3.5 here. Michigan got banged up against Maryland last week, with injuries to two offensive lineman and wide receiver Roman Wilson. Factor in that J.J. McCarthy has been playing through something and all I can do is salivate at this opportunity. Outside of the injuries, my model has this below a field goal. I do have concerns about Ohio State’s offensive production on the road this season, but the Buckeyes have made some necessary changes to their run game and I think that’s going to end up being the difference. Plus TreVeyon Henderson is healthy again.
Worst line to bet: Ohio State +3.5 (-115)
Model projection: Michigan 24.8, Ohio State 22.3
Kansas -6 (-110) at Cincinnati
Last week of the regular season and that means this is our last chance to fade Cincinnati. We might as well keep doing it. I’m a little worried about Kansas’ rush defense as it isn’t particularly great and that’s what Cincinnati wants to do on offense. However, Cincinnati is terrible on defense. Kansas should have no problem marching up and down the field and get us to the window.
Worst line to bet: Kansas -6.5 (-110)
Model projection: Kansas 34, Cincinnati 24.5
Duke -6 (-110) vs. Pitt
Duke’s defense against Pitt’s offense should be a huge edge for the Blue Devils. And that’s not because I think Duke’s defense is amazing or anything — it’s solid — but Pitt’s offense is just terrible. Duke isn’t in the greatest of form, maybe that has to do with Mike Elko’s name swirling in the college football coaching carousel, but I think the Blue Devils will be able to distance themselves from Pitt on Saturday and give us a winner.
Worst line to bet: Duke -6 (-110)
Model projection: Duke 24.3, Pitt 15.8
Virginia Tech -3 (-110) at Virginia
I’m not one to play into spots much, but Virginia Tech is trying to become bowl-eligible this weekend while Virginia isn’t. Is that worth something? Maybe, maybe not. Either way, my model thinks this number is short before factoring in any motivation. Neither of these teams are great at anything, but I do trust Virginia Tech’s defense more than any other unit in this game. Virginia is pretty poor at defending the run so maybe the Hokies can exploit that weakness to go bowling.
Worst line to bet: Virginia Tech -3 (-110)
Model projection: Virginia Tech 26.5, Virginia 22.5
North Carolina -3 (-110) at NC State
I’m going to erase the memory of North Carolina failing to cover against Clemson last week so I can stomach betting them in this spot. North Carolina State is built on its defense and while it’s pretty good, its offense is abysmal. The Wolfpack’s passing and rushing offense both rank in the bottom-30 when it comes to success rates according to TruMedia. My model thinks the Tar Heels can play “good enough” defense to allow Drake Maye and a balanced offensive attack to come out on top.
Worst line to bet: North Carolina -3 (-110)
Model projection: North Carolina 30.5, NC State 26.5
East Carolina -3 (-110) vs. Tulsa
This edge is purely coming from a matchup advantage that should favor ECU. Tulsa wants to run the ball on offense while ECU has one of the better rush defenses in the country. Defense isn’t really the problem for ECU, though. On offense, the Pirates are just not very good. But Tulsa is poor at defending the run and really bad at defending the pass. If there was ever a time for an offensive breakout game, it’s this week for ECU.
Worst line to bet: ECU -3 (-110)
Model projection: East Carolina 24.5, Tulsa 20.5
(Photo of Kyle McCord: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)