Somehow, some way, the Kansas City Chiefs are 7-0.
The two-time defending Super Bowl champions are used to winning, but the 2024 season has been different despite the perfect record. The Chiefs have yet to crack 30 points and have at least one turnover in every game. Four of their seven wins have come by one possession.
What are the odds Kansas City can continue its winning run through November, December and into January? Here’s what could lie ahead for the NFL’s only undefeated team.
What are the odds of a 17-0 season?
Kansas City has a 2 percent chance of finishing the year undefeated, according to modeling data from The Athletic’s Austin Mock.
That sounds slim — and it is — but Kansas City does have a win probability of at least 62 percent in nine of its remaining 10 games, according to Mock’s projections. Kansas City has already won two of the three most difficult games on its schedule — in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens and Week 7 at the San Francisco 49ers.
The only game left in which the Chiefs have a less than 50 percent chance of winning is in Week 11 at the Buffalo Bills. Mock gives the Chiefs a 47 percent chance to win on the road.
See all of Mock’s projections for the season here.
The first half was no sleepwalk
The Chiefs may have eked out a handful of victories this season, but they also beat several potential playoff teams. Their first seven opponents have a combined record of 29-32 — or 29-25 when not playing Kansas City.
Three of those teams, the Ravens, Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers, have winning records. Another was the 49ers, last year’s NFC champion. Patrick Mahomes has emerged victorious throughout the stretch in head-to-head matchups with Kirk Cousins, Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, all of whom rank in the top 10 in passing yards per game.
Kansas City can thank its gritty defense for its perfect start this season, as every opposing offense has tallied fewer yards against the Chiefs than their season average.
Hardest stretch upcoming
The Chiefs’ final 10 games may be easier than their first seven, but the biggest hurdles are up next. In the next three weeks, Kansas City will battle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Denver Broncos and the Buffalo Bills, three teams with positive point differentials and a combined 16-10 record.
The Bucs and Broncos, two teams with winning road records, will travel to Arrowhead Stadium. Then the Chiefs will hike up to Buffalo for a date with the Bills, who have lost just one of their last nine home games — against the Chiefs in January.
Mahomes is 3-0 against Josh Allen’s Bills in the playoffs, but just 1-3 in the regular season. A Week 11 win over a potentially unbeaten Chiefs team would be sweet revenge for Allen after January’s playoff defeat.
If Kansas City can leave Buffalo victorious, it has a 62 percent or better win probability in all of its remaining games. The Chiefs play three teams in last place in their divisions (the Carolina Panthers, Raiders and Cleveland Browns).
The final three weeks could be ripe for spoilers.
In Week 16, Kansas City plays the Houston Texans, the AFC South leaders at 6-3. It will be the first meeting between Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud and Mahomes.
Four days later, the Chiefs play on Christmas Day — a Wednesday — at the Pittsburgh Steelers. To close the year, the Chiefs will travel to the Broncos to face a Denver team that could still be in playoff contention. Dating back to 2015, the home team has won 15 of the past 16 matchups between the Chiefs and Broncos.
How many NFL teams have gone undefeated?
Only two teams in the Super Bowl era — the 1972 Miami Dolphins and 2007 New England Patriots — have ended the regular season unbeaten. Miami went on to win the Super Bowl, while the Patriots fell to the New York Giants in one of the biggest championship upsets of all time.
In more recent history, it’s been hard to sniff an undefeated season.
Since the Carolina Panthers started 14-0 in 2015, only one team (the 2020 Steelers) has started the year better than 8-0. (Pittsburgh got to 11-0 before losing four of its last five games.) Four teams since 2018 started 8-0 before losing in the ninth game.
Starting out this strong hasn’t paid off in the postseason. Not since the 2006 Indianapolis Colts has the last-standing undefeated team gone on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Since 2000, 25 teams have started at least 7-0. Only seven of those teams stretched their undefeated starts beyond 10 games.
Required reading
(Top photo: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
