Despite occasional uncooperative weather, every MLB team has played at least 10 games to this point, and courtesy of results earlier this week, each team has recorded at least one save. Performance and late-inning matchups can cloud bullpen structures, which makes overreacting in such limited sample sizes easy.
However, recognizing how a manager prefers handling the high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. With this in mind, each team will receive one of the following labels — my high-leverage pathway identifiers — though these can change quickly.
- Mostly Linear: A more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray. For instance, if the Cardinals face a team with their best pocket of hitters lining up for the eighth inning, Ryan Helsley may be called upon, since it represents the highest-leveraged moment in the contest.
- Primary Save Share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves, but he may also be used in match-up-based situations, whether dictated by batter handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings, which provides more than one reliever save chances each series or week throughout the season.
- Shared Saves: Usually two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes based on handedness or rest or recent usage patterns. While these situations usually rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can get into the mix. One reliever may eventually emerge, so this can be fluid.
AL High-Leverage Pathways
Notes of Interest
- Chicago White Sox: Michael Kopech has two saves this year, each requiring two-inning outings, which helps his status as the team’s preferred save option. However, it may limit his save total unless his usage pattern shifts into a more traditional one-inning role moving forward.
- Kansas City Royals: There’s a temptation to change the leverage pathway label, but I’m giving this another week or two for more clarity. This could still be a match-up-based approach — time will tell.
- Minnesota Twins: Although fantasy managers preferred Griffin Jax to be the “heir apparent” for the primary save share, he’s been deployed as the HLR, hence the rating above. He last received a save chance on March 28, and appeared in the eighth inning in his four outings since.
- Texas Rangers: Manager Bruce Bochy suggested “it’s too early to panic” about leverage roles, so this leverage pathway remains stable for now, but this will be a situation to watch going forward.
- Toronto Blue Jays: Weather permitting, Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson will make rehab outings at Triple-A on Thursday (April 11). If all goes as planned, they could be active as soon as this weekend, which would not only change the leverage pathway back into a linear pattern, placing Romano atop the hierarchy, Swanson next in line, and García as the stealth option, though he will operate like an HLR, with Chad Green getting ancillary save chances.
NL High-Leverage Pathways
Notes of Interest
- Colorado Rockies: Mining early from this bullpen presents ratio risk for fantasy players — it can cause results-based frustration. Tread lightly.
- Philadelphia Phillies: Although clarity remains the preferred choice by the fantasy community, the “floating closer” concept remains in full effect. Plus, Orion Kerkering may return this weekend when the team faces Pittsburgh. He’s been hitting 98 mph during his minor league rehab outings and may forge a save share with a strong start once activated. Monitor the upcoming usage patterns closely.
- Pittsburgh Pirates: After his third blown save, David Bednar’s manager remained steadfast in his support for the team’s closer. However, better results must take place soon.
Relievers on the Rise
1. James McArthur (KC): A batting average on batted balls in play (BABIP) spike during his early appearances makes his early ratios seem shaky, but beneath his 5.40 ERA lies a 2.90 SIERA with a 20.7 K-BB percentage. He’s hasn’t allowed a run over his past three outings, recording a win and two saves. For the season, he owns an 18.3 swinging strike percentage through 6.2 innings with his slider producing a 30.8 percent swinging strike rate and his curve a 21.1 swinging strike percentage:
2. Robert Suarez (SD): He’s converted all four save chances and posted a 1.00 WHIP with a 21.7 K-BB percentage through his first six innings. In attack mode, he owns a 78.3 first-pitch strike percentage, which fuels his 15.6 percent swinging strike rate while working ahead in counts.
3. Aroldis Chapman (PIT): Perhaps pressure would not be heightened for the Pirates, except the southpaw has been dominant early on. Through his first six appearances, he’s recorded an 8:1 K:BB with a 0.62 WHIP over 4.1 innings. It’s a small sample, but he’s one of four relievers with a K-BB percentage greater than 20, a swinging strike rate of 15 percent or better, while recording at least a 65 percent strike rate, and limited contact below 65 percent:
4. Kirby Yates (TEX): His strong start has flown beneath the radar, but he’s posted a minuscule 0.25 WHIP with four strikeouts, zero walks (30.8 K-BB percentage), and an 18 percent swinging strike rate. His 1.91 SIERA does not suggest pending migration toward the mean and he has a 40-plus saves season on record. Many feel David Robertson may be next in line if José Leclerc gets demoted from the closer role, but Yates is the reliever to stash instead.
5. Andrew Nardi (MIA): Despite this season’s small sample size, he’s already logged seven appearances with a wide chasm in his outcomes. He allowed eight runs over his first four games, then turned in three straight scoreless contests with three strikeouts, zero walks and a 0.33 WHIP. For those stashing for future saves, he’s a name worth considering in a bullpen rife with struggling relievers.
Closer Concerns
1. Tanner Scott (MIA): Segue alert… Even though he held on for his first save of the season, it happened during a 1.2-inning outing during which he threw 34 pitches (14 strikes — 41.2 Strike%) and produced one whiff. He’s posted a 1.94 WHIP with six strikeouts against nine walks over 5.2 innings. His 57.1 strike percentage ranks tied for 196th among qualified relievers and his 6.6 swinging strike percentage sits nearly 11 percent below his rate from last year.
2. David Bednar (PIT): His early struggles may be a mechanical issue, especially given his lack of buildup during spring because of a lat injury. If it affected his kinetic chain, it’s manifesting in his early results this year. Hope lies in his 2.00 SIERA versus his current 12.46 ERA. His contact rate allowed almost aligns with last year’s results, as does his swinging strike percentage. For him, it’s all about command. He’s recorded a paltry 47.8 first-strike percentage and 63.2 strike percentage. His vertical release point is in contrast to past results, which intimates why a side session or quick reset on the injured list may spark a rebound:
3. José Leclerc (TEX): Appearing in this section two weeks in a row does not bode well for future save chances, but his manager has preached patience. However, from a fantasy lens, Leclerc’s 2.40 WHIP accompanies a 6.58 SIERA and a negative 7.1 K-BB percentage. Even though his first-strike percentage sits above last year’s rate, his swinging strike rate has plummeted and he’s allowing more contact, especially in the strike zone, fueling his struggles. His strike percentage ranks below Scott’s, at only 56.6 percent, 201st among qualified relievers. Monitor his results going forward closely, along with Bochy’s tolerance for continued command issues.
Saves Stash List
- Andrew Nardi (MIA)
- Kirby Yates (TEX)
- Orion Kerkering (PHI)
- Aroldis Chapman (PIT)
- Hunter Harvey (WSH)
Ancillary Saves Relievers of Interest
High Leverage Ladders
Tiered Rankings for Saves and SOLDS
Statistical Credits:Fangraphs.com; Baseball-Reference.com: BaseballSavant.com; BrooksBaseball.net
For daily coverage of bullpens, check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey
(Top photo of David Bednar: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
