How many sports betting columns went 9-0 in NFL betting last week? Just Jon Greenberg and Zac Jackson? As they wait for their holiday bonuses like Clark Griswold, they’ll keep picking more games.
GREENBERG (5-1 last week, 60-43 overall): I wish I had been betting “real” money on my NFL picks all season, because I went 5-0 last week and am now an unlikely 36-18 betting NFL games in this column. We’d be going to the islands this winter, instead of Wheeling Island.
You had a helluva week too, going 4-0 in NFL games, including two unders. Are we peaking at the right time? It’s not only bowl season, but for the first time, 12-team Playoff season.
JACKSON (4-1, 52-54): You’ve been peaking since August. I’m simply a blind squirrel trying to feed his family at Christmas.
Which is why I’m going under in the Boca Raton Bowl. We live for these 5:30 p.m. Wednesday games, and with what’s left of Western Kentucky taking on James Madison with a backup quarterback, I see a lot of runs and a lot of field goals. Western Kentucky is so good at kicking field goals that getting them feels like a big goal. This should be slow, disjointed and ugly. My kind of ball. Let’s go under 50.5.
In the other Wednesday game, Cal is either on its third or fourth quarterback. This is one I initially circled as a UNLV letdown spot considering the Rebels almost made the College Football Playoff, but from Sunday night to Wednesday morning this line moved five points, all the way to UNLV -3.5. Someone knows something we don’t here, Jon. Let’s take UNLV -3.5.
GREENBERG: “Someone knows something we don’t” should be the tagline for this column. I’ll roll with you on under 50.5. I liked Western Kentucky +7.5, but let’s be honest, I don’t have a clue. I’m going to steer clear of UNLV-Cal though.
Let’s skip ahead to Friday. Am I alone in wanting to put a big bet on our Bobcats -4.5? They haven’t lost a player to the portal, as far as I know, and they just announced the promotion of offensive coordinator Brian Smith to head coach after Tim Albin skipped town for Charlotte. The Bobcats run the ball and score points. So does Jacksonville State, but Rich Rod is back in Morgantown, where he always belonged. The Gamecocks’ interim coach is Rod Smith and man, he really looks different from his Broncos days.
The Jax State Gamecocks is in Orlando for the Cure Bowl. They met local media Tuesday. With head coach Rich Rodriguez gone for West Virginia, interim head coach Rod Smith fielded questions from reporters.https://t.co/zKwr9jompN
— Anniston Star JSU (@StarJaxState) December 17, 2024
Are you ready to talk about the CFP games? Because I love the underdogs! This is uncharted territory. We have no idea how the fans are going to react, what the atmosphere is going to be like at these games. We’re not used to seeing college football players going at it in late December in State College, Columbus and South Bend.
Notre Dame has only failed to cover the spread twice this year and both were against MAC schools. Can Kurtis Rourke keep the #MACtion streak alive by leading the Hoosiers to a +7.5 cover? Indiana’s run defense means everything here. They’re tops in the nation and if they can hold down Notre Dame’s potent attack below its average, Rourke and Co. have a shot. I’m an adopted Hoosiers fan so I’ll gamble and take IU +7.5. But I’m not confident.
I have no clue about SMU-Penn State — imagine being one of those rich SMU alums having to trek to State College by dogsled — but I like Clemson +12 against Texas. Looking at Clemson’s betting trends is kind of worthless since the Tigers have been favored in every game — they were slight ‘dogs against SMU and won — but I think they keep it fairly close.
Will Ohio State bounce back against Tennessee? Is 7.5 too big a number?
JACKSON: First, the games that matter are the ones we like, not the ones that get a bracket. I couldn’t agree more on the Ohio Bobcats -4.5. In the portal era, bowl teams that lost their coach pre-bowl are 0-9 straight up and 2-7 ATS. But both these teams lost their coaches. I clearly underrated OU’s defense in the MAC title game, and this team’s whole thing has been togetherness and continuity. I’m expecting one more huge defensive effort and one more win. Probably a big one.
Getting to Saturday night, it’s going to be cold in Columbus. Not even 20 degrees at kickoff. It’s also going to be Puckerville with the natives restless and an Ohio State team that has to be at least somewhat doubting itself right now. It’s an Ohio State team that’s capable of winning this game and winning the whole tournament, actually, but if things don’t go well early, I do worry about the team’s psyche and about the “Fire Ryan Day” chants in the crowd. Day clearly coaches like he’s scared and aware of what everyone thinks, which is why I don’t trust this team to reach its full potential. Give me the under 46.5. I like both defenses better than both offenses, and I expect Ohio State to survive via a handful of big plays by wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka.
I also like Indiana +7.5, just wanting more than a touchdown in a game I expect to be close and low-scoring.
GREENBERG: I don’t love this weekend’s NFL slate, but the mark of a professional is working when you don’t want to.
I like the Chargers -2.5 over the Broncos on Thursday night. But I love that Steelers-Ravens is the late-afternoon game Saturday, leading right into Tennessee-Ohio State. The last eight Steelers-Ravens games have gone under and I’ll ride the streak, pray the Steelers defense keeps befuddling Lamar Jackson and go under 45.5.
Betting on the Bengals should require a five-drink minimum, but I’ll continue to roll with them -7.5 against (Chris Berman voice) the Picture of Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the Cleveland Browns. I think the Bengals win by 10.
That Lions-Bears game is a tough one to handicap. The Bears have been even more godawful the last two weeks and that’s saying something considering they fired their coach three games ago and have lost eight straight. Even with the Lions decimated by injuries, the Bears can’t do anything right, offensively or defensively. They’re undisciplined and checked out. Their former passing-game coordinator is now the interim head coach while also trying to call plays. Their former DC in name only is calling plays for a defense that is getting trucked every game.
Meanwhile, the Lions have Dan Campbell, maybe the next Bears coach (if he wants the job) Ben Johnson and maybe another NFL head coach in Aaron Glenn. Injuries have a way of evening the field, but I’d feel safe taking the Lions -6.5. If you don’t trust that line right now, I’d also feel comfortable taking the Lions -2.5 first quarter or the under 9.5 total for the first quarter. The Bears almost never score early.
Bears points in the 1st quarter has returned by @jon_greenberg request…
W1 0
W2 3
W3 0
W4 0
W5 7
W6 0
W8 0
W9 0
W10 0
W11 3
W12 7
W13 0
W14 0
W15 0— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) December 17, 2024
I’ll also go with Rams -3.5 at the Jets and the Niners +1 at the Dolphins. San Francisco is pretty but Miami is imploding too.
JACKSON: We know how these Tomlin vs. Harbaugh games generally go, but I’m a little hesitant on Steelers +6. I’m more interested in the other AFC North game. The Browns can’t stop turning the ball over and the Bengals still have faint playoff hopes, so I like the Bengals team total over 27.5
Thursday night, I also love the Chargers -2.5. And I’ll take Lions-Bears over 48. We all know what’s going on with the Lions’ defense, and the Lions need the game badly to keep pace atop the division and the conference. Unless a blizzard is hitting Chicago, this should be a shootout.
GREENBERG: I can’t believe we’re so blessed to be working at Bengals-Browns and Lions-Steelers this Sunday. To quote Jim Harbaugh, who has it better than us?
Jon Greenberg’s picks
Zac Jackson’s picks
(Photo of Kurtis Rourke: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)
