Today, we’re covering the quarterbacks in the AFC Championship, Jacksonville’s big change, the new Jets head coach and your thoughts on Lamar Jackson’s playoff struggles.
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But first, a fun moment from the back-to-back offseason champions:
In case you missed it, Adam Jahns wrote a feature about the influences that helped new Chicago coach Ben Johnson “create a monster” of an offense in Detroit. It’s an insightful read on scheme-building in the modern NFL. Onward.
AFC Championship: It starts at quarterback, always
Decades are often defined by quarterback rivalries. Terry Bradshaw and Ken Stabler. Troy Aikman and Steve Young. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
None met in a Super Bowl, but the winners of those legendary playoff duels had often already overcome their toughest challengers for the Lombardi Trophy.
It took years for teams led by Stabler, Young and Manning to defeat their rivals in the postseason, something Josh Allen’s Bills — half of the intra-conference rivalry defining the 2020s — have yet to do against Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs, who are 16-1 against every playoff team without Brady. (That lone loss was against another contender for the title of Mahomes’ rival: Joe Burrow.)
But don’t blame Allen, who has elevated his game in the postseason, particularly when throwing:
Mahomes doesn’t tend to produce the same playoff jump, though that’s been because his regular-season excellence is hard to top by much:
Or at least that’s usually the case. Against the Bills in particular, playoff Mahomes has been his very best.
In his three previous postseason games against Buffalo, he averaged 306 passing yards and had a 75.2 completion percentage, with eight passing TDs to zero INTs. His EPA per pass nearly doubled to 0.47, his highest against any team he’s faced multiple times in the postseason — and more than double Allen’s playoff mark against Kansas City.
Mahomes is 1-4 in the regular season against Allen, but 3-0 in the playoffs. The Bills defense plans to change that on Sunday.
Other factors:
- Michael Salfino explored the Chiefs’ penalty advantage, finding that their 2022-2024 playoff opponents have lost 20.4 more yards per game than the average non-Chiefs opponent. (This largely comes via Mahomes’ ability to draw flags, as he averaged one roughing-the-passer call in each of his last five playoff games.)
- Poor open-field tackling, weak third-down defense and penalties hindered the Chiefs defense during Mahomes’ lone 2024 loss, in Week 11 to the Bills. Nate Taylor explains that chip on Kansas City’s shoulder.
Speaking of that earlier matchup, both teams arrive Sunday with reinforcements: The Chiefs now have CB Jaylen Watson and DE Charles Omenihu, while Buffalo regains RT Spencer Brown and WR Keon Coleman.
Kansas City is listed on BetMGM as the two-point favorite. Kickoff is 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Is it Sunday yet?!
What Dianna’s Hearing: Sudden end of the Baalke era
It wasn’t even three weeks ago that the Jaguars announced they were keeping general manager Trent Baalke. At that time, my “Scoop City” podcast co-host Chase Daniel and I discussed the rather surprising development — I explained that it made the Jaguars opening a little less appealing for some head-coaching candidates who were looking for a bigger voice in personnel matters.
On Wednesday, owner Shad Khan did an about-face, deciding to “respectfully separate” from Baalke.
Many around the league believed this was always a possibility if the right coaching candidate wanted it, though Jacksonville has already missed out on a couple top options in Ben Johnson (now in Chicago) and Liam Coen (staying in Tamp Bay).
Back to you, Jacob.
Reader Thoughts: Lamar Jackson, not the first to fall short
While Mahomes and Allen elevate in the postseason, the same hasn’t been true for the newly eliminated Lamar Jackson.
As we outlined yesterday, he has improved overall in these games. But after another multi-turnover elimination, many of you shared varying perspectives on the Ravens’ future with him at the helm.
I asked you: Can the Ravens win a Super Bowl with Lamar Jackson?
- 80.5 percent of you said yes. Most looked to history, sharing opinions similar to Joe H.: “A great, great player. He will win one (like Peyton Manning).” “Lamar struggles? See John Elway,” added Moshe.
Jackson turned 28 this month. At that age, Manning was also 3-5 in the postseason. It then took 11 more years to get his playoff winning percentage into the positive. As for Elway, he was 37 when he won his first Super Bowl. Patience.
- But 19.5 percent said no. While most pointed to avoidable mistakes — like Mark Andrews’ drop — as the culprit, Mike P. noted that Jackson often tries to do too much, trying to “make a superhero play,” as Jerry pointed out.
I thought Lorenzo put a pin in it nicely:
“Concerns are somewhat overblown. Hall of Famers like Jim Kelly never won a SB despite four tries. Marino never won one. It takes a full team effort.”
What comes to mind for me? Nassim Taleb’s book, “Fooled by Randomness,” which explains our desire to construct a narrative in a chaotic world. If Andrews catches that pass or Zay Flowers doesn’t fumble at the one-yard line in last year’s AFC Championship, we might be telling a different story.
As with Manning, Marino and company, we are witnessing a generational talent in Jackson. Let’s appreciate that.
Coaching Carousel: Aaron Glenn returns
Yesterday, the Jets gave outgoing Lions DC Aaron Glenn something to celebrate, via a five-year contract to become their next head coach. It’s a homecoming for Glenn, an undersized cornerback who spent eight of his 15 NFL seasons in New York, where he made the Pro Bowl twice.
“This place is special for me,” he said in a statement. “From the time I was drafted and practiced on Long Island, to the time I came back as a scout in New Jersey, this organization has always felt like home.”
You should know:
- He’s the seventh defensive-minded head coach of the Jets since 2000 (the only exception was Adam Gase). But don’t tell Glenn that, after he told reporters a few days prior, “If you’re going to hire me, you’re going to hire a coach, not a defensive coach.”
- He inherits plenty of talent on that side of the ball, with CB Sauce Gardner, LB Quincy Williams, DT Quinnen Williams and edges Will McDonald and Jermaine Johnson, while CB D.J. Reed is an impending free agent.
- Former Lions executive and current assistant GM of the Commanders Lance Newmark is the favorite to join Glenn as general manager.
Next: Does Glenn want to work with Aaron Rodgers? As Zack Rosenblatt writes, that’s the biggest question hanging over the Jets, though there are also plenty more.
If you’re interested in learning more about Glenn’s coaching style and background, you’ll enjoy Dan Pompei’s 2020 story on the 52-year-old’s secret to coaching success.
Yesterday’s most-clicked: Mike Sando’s perspective on Jackson’s legacy after another playoff loss.
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(Photo: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)
