We know the Cubs are starting their season against the Dodgers in Japan. But where will they finish?
The Cubs finish the 162-marathon with the Mets and Cardinals in late September at Wrigley Field. Will they be packing for the playoffs or another early vacation?
“Go Cubs Go” and all, but where?
It’s a question that could change lives on the North Side of Chicago, starting with president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, who is entering the last year of his contract. Hoyer has been with the Cubs since the winter of 2011, through thin and thick and thin and … whatever this is now.
As his Kyle Tucker trade showed, Hoyer is aware of this season’s importance to the organization and personally. We all remember Theo Epstein’s “every opportunity to win is sacred” line from 2011. His friend Hoyer is living that truth now.
The Cubs’ modest goal is to end the season in the playoffs for the first time (in a full season) since 2018. They haven’t won their division and a playoff series (or even a game) since 2017, when their run atop the National League ended with a thud against the same Los Angeles Dodgers they’re playing in Tokyo.
A lot has changed since then. The Dodgers’ end goal this year, and every year, is another World Series title. The Cubs’ intent is to be one game better than the Milwaukee Brewers.
It’s hard to believe the Cubs, who were supposed to be a financial and developmental powerhouse, have been so middling for so long. Detours happened on the path to prosperity, and while the team’s arrow is pointed in the right direction, it’s hard to get excited about the road to 85 wins.
It is poetic that the Cubs are starting with the Dodgers in Japan, where both teams are aggressive suitors of talent to varied degrees.
The Dodgers, bankrolled by a monster cable TV deal, are the new “Evil Empire.” A perfect organization that blends spending and scouting. Their payroll for the season is second to the Mets and eclipsing $300 million. They signed the biggest star in the sport, Shohei Ohtani, star pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto and won the rights for young Japanese ace Roki Sasaki this offseason.
The Cubs, who are putting an emphasis on Japanese players too, have Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga. They had Yu Darvish, a godfather of Japanese ballplayers, but ultimately couldn’t afford him.
Chicago can’t compete for the high-end free agents so they overspend on good talent like shortstop Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ and Suzuki. They make trades for rentals like Tucker, despite having no indications they can keep him for the long term.
While the Dodgers have eff-you money, the Cubs are dealing with MLB’s effed-up Regional Sports Network realities — their dream of a TV windfall never happened — and the team chairman Tom Ricketts has given up on competing financially with the likes of the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies and Yankees … at least under the current CBA.
In a radio interview during Cubs Convention, Ricketts espoused a “break-even” philosophy of spending that sounded dubious and very small-time for a big-market owner of a team with a money-printing stadium. It didn’t go over well for an increasingly unpopular owner.
Tom Ricketts on fans calling for Cubs to spend more:
“They think somehow we have all these dollars that the Dodgers have or the Mets have or the Yankees have and we just keep it. Which isn’t true at all. What happens is we try to break even every year, and that’s about it.”
— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) January 18, 2025
Ricketts walked back that statement in a recent interview on CNBC.
“Maybe using the word ‘break-even’ wasn’t the way I wanted to say that,” he said. “I just want people to know that every dollar spent at the ballpark goes back into putting a more competitive team on the field. Away from that, every Cubs fan knows we’ve invested more than a billion dollars into Wrigley Field itself and the neighborhood around (it). It’s not a matter of us not investing. We are putting the team out on the field we can every year.”
It was a familiar Ricketts bit, “Caveat Theater.” The team is believed to have one of the highest revenues in the game. But no one knows how the books are balanced or cooked. Given that the family’s real estate interests are technically separate from the baseball ones, even though the businesses are all intertwined, you would need a team of forensic accountants to figure out where the money is flowing. Furthermore, Cubs fans didn’t ask for boutique hotels, team-owned rooftops, luxury clubs or a sportsbook. They pay a lot for tickets (not to mention to watch the games on TV) and don’t want to hear excuses from rich people.
Tellingly, in a win-now season, the Cubs have a lower Opening Day payroll than they did last season.
And yet, this team is going to be good. Probably.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection is high on the Cubs at 91.7 wins, the third-most in baseball. FanGraphs has them atop the NL Central but with 84 wins. BetMGM, the official gambling partner of The Athletic, has their win total at 86.5 and gives them the sixth-best odds (+1400) to win the National League pennant.
They aren’t built to be a surefire contender this season — they’re currently 12th in total payroll allocations, according to Spotrac — which is why I didn’t quite agree with Hoyer trading last year’s first-round draft pick Cam Smith to Houston for one year of Tucker.
Because the Cubs aren’t one player away from a World Series.
If Tucker plays well enough, he will be out of the Cubs’ budget after the season. What will be the return on one year? Smith has opened eyes with Houston this spring and could open the season in the majors. If he becomes a star and Tucker becomes a Yankee or, god forbid, a Dodger, how will this trade look in a few years?
Cam Smith goes oppo taco for his 3rd home run of the spring 🌮
Smith, the Astros #1 prospect, was acquired for Kyle Tucker during the offseason
(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/r4k6WZVNHR
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) March 16, 2025
But with his job on the line, Hoyer had to make a win-now move. So I get it, and for his sake, I hope it works because it will put his boss in a quite a pickle.
What happens if Tucker (who has the sixth-best odds for NL MVP at +1600) rakes and the Cubs make the playoffs? How could Ricketts justify not making a serious attempt to re-sign him, even at a contract eclipsing $250 million? Here’s how. Ricketts is content rooting for an NL Central crown and waiting out the clock before a raucous labor fight after the 2026 season.
Baseball has a de facto salary cap now with the luxury tax, but owners like Ricketts will be angling for an official one during the upcoming bargaining sessions with the players association. Every financial move the team makes until 2026 should be looked at through this lens. (The Cubs have just two high-priced players under contract after the 2026 season in Swanson and Imanaga.)
Hoyer’s past mistakes should be judged, to be sure, but he was tasked with clearing salary and building up the farm system after the pandemic. He’s done both. To keep his job, the major-league club has to show results this year. I think that’s fair. All we’re talking about is winning the NL Central. Cubs manager Craig Counsell isn’t making $8 million this year for his news conferences alone.
For the Cubs to win 100 games, a lot has to go right. For them to win 90, they just can’t have everything go wrong.
Swanson, the team’s highest-priced player, needs to have a bounce-back season after core surgery. Happ and Suzuki have to hit all season, the veteran relievers added to the bullpen can’t cost the team games like last year and young position players such as Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw need to prove they belong.
There are plenty of variables at work for a win-now season and yet I’m optimistic. The Cubs might have been a 90-win team last year if not for an underfunded bullpen. This season should have more highs and lows. I think the Cubs have enough to win the division and end the season in October. Can they compete with the Dodgers? In October, probably not. But in March, we’ll watch with bleary eyes as they try.
(Photo of Kyle Tucker: Kenta Harada / Getty Images)
