Close losses have been common for the Miami Heat (7-8) this season, but the team has plenty to be thankful for despite its up-and-down start. Four of the last six have come by three points or fewer, but Miami remains within a homogeneous Eastern Conference cluster of teams sitting far behind the league-best Cleveland Cavaliers and defending champion Boston Celtics with plenty of season left.
Still, Jimmy Butler said Tuesday’s 106-103 loss to the visiting Milwaukee Bucks, who were playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo, distinctly hurt and kept the team “very far” from where it needs to be – a sentiment coach Erik Spoelstra has occasionally acknowledged as well. That was a missed opportunity for the Heat to establish their longest win streak of the season and instead kept them floating around .500 and falling out of contention for the NBA Cup. Despite the reasonable frustrations about the win column, the Heat have shown strong flashes in recent weeks and have enjoyed Butler’s return as a catalyst. Since he’s gotten back in the lineup, the team’s net rating swings by 26.1 points (plus-13.1 in 109 minutes with him, minus-13.0 without him) based on his presence. Despite Tuesday’s loss, Miami (plus-6.7) is still 10th in overall net rating since Butler got back on Nov. 18.
Miami will visit the Charlotte Hornets before enjoying the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, so let’s take some time to acknowledge the list of things the team can be thankful for as its season continues unfolding:
Tyler Herro’s leap
Though he’s had a recent cold spell, the 24-year-old guard remains Miami’s leading scorer this season and played All-Star-quality ball to open it. In his last five games, Herro is shooting 37.5 percent overall and 30.6 from deep, but he’s still averaging 20.4 points in that span and a team-best (and career-high) 23.4 entering Wednesday. A huge part of his improvement has been his shot profile becoming more efficient, which has also helped him become a more effective playmaker for teammates as defenses focus more on him.
On Nov. 12 against the Detroit Pistons (no need to rehash how the game finished, so let’s focus on the best part for Miami), Boy Wonder enjoyed his second career game with at least 40 points and 10 3s … something no other player in Heat history has done even once. That capped a 10-game stretch where he shot 52.5 percent on pull-up jumpers, including an absurd 45.2 mark on 3s. As mentioned, he’s cooled off in the five games since. On the season, Herro is still shooting 39.7 percent when attempting pull-up triples, which is still on pace for a career-high.
“Those were not easy 3s either … his release has gotten so much quicker,” Spoelstra said of Herro after Miami’s 123-121 defeat that night. “He’s always been super ignitable.”
Butler remaining reliable
On Nov. 8, Miami suffered what remains its second-worst loss of the season, when it went down 135-122 to the Denver Nuggets in the Mile High City. Unfortunately, the team kind of lost twice because Butler played in only 6:44 of that game before leaving due to a sprained ankle. The Heat split the wins and losses during his four-game absence.
Butler remains one of the NBA’s most reliable two-way players. Along with being second to Herro in team scoring average (19.5), the six-time All-Star remains active on defense with 32 deflections (third behind Bam Adebayo’s 46 and Haywood Highsmith’s 42) while leading the team in loose balls recovered (14) despite missing those four outings.
He’s also been consistent with his clutch-time play and even more timely quips, based on his feedback of Duncan Robinson’s inbounds pass to seal Sunday’s win over the Dallas Mavericks.
Jimmy Butler spoke about the play that sent the game into OT, he sung the praises of Spoelstra, and admitted something about Robinson’s pass on that play.
“I hate to say it, but Duncan made an incredible pass…” #HeatNation pic.twitter.com/eLLszzkG1w
— Zachary Weinberger (@ZachWeinberger) November 25, 2024
Such plays by Butler show how much Miami’s luck does hinge on him. Entering Wednesday, the Heat rank only 19th in clutch-time net rating (plus-6.9) — it’s worth remembering clutch time is in a game’s final five minutes with the score within five points. Butler leads the team with 23 points in such situations this season, shooting 52.6 percent overall despite Miami’s 2-4 mark in those games.
The friendly East standings
As alluded to earlier, the East standings aren’t too formidable beyond Boston and Cleveland, so time remains for Miami to right its respective ship and at least compete for a Play-In spot, should it fall out of top-six contention. The Bucks are surging and have bypassed the Heat in the standings, so it will be important to find rhythm soon … but the opportunity exists. The Heat have lost close games by not getting a shot off (at the Phoenix Suns), an uncharacteristic late-game defensive lapse (that Detroit loss we weren’t supposed to remember) and an all-time great shooter doing what one does (Damian Lillard on Tuesday).
With Spoelstra leading the way, there remains time for the Heat to correct their season and turn those close losses into timely wins.
Miami’s schedule will even out … eventually
You know what else could be timely? A friendlier home schedule for the Heat. The team has already had a six-game road trip and also played against the Washington Wizards in Mexico City earlier this month. Through Feb. 24, Miami has road trips of three (Dec. 26-29), six (Jan. 6-15), four (Feb. 1-7) and five (Feb. 12-24) games, respectively. Fortunately for the Heat, once they’re done maximizing their air miles, they will play 18 of their final 26 games at home.
So far, Miami is tied with the Golden State Warriors for the fewest home games (seven), but things should balance out in the Heat’s favor despite their 3-4 home record so far. In the previous five seasons, since acquiring Butler, Miami had the NBA’s fifth-best home win percentage (.656).
Adebayo’s 3-point shooting finding rhythm
The two-time Olympic gold medalist remains one of the NBA’s most effective defensive players and Miami’s unique offensive piece. Adebayo’s offense had a slow start to the season, but he’s been catching fire from 3-point range in recent weeks. He’s just looked very comfortable seeking those looks, and the consistency is paying off a great deal.
Through his first nine games, Adebayo shot only 18.2 percent on his overall 3-point attempts and just 20 percent on catch-and-shoot looks. Since then, though? He’s improved to 53.3 percent on the latter and is shooting 35 percent overall from deep. And it’s not only Adebayo’s actual 3s that are now frustrating defenses — it’s the mere threat of his improved touch. According to NBA.com, since Nov. 12, the Heat are shooting 39.7 percent on 3s in Adebayo’s 223 minutes on the court. In his 75 minutes on the bench in that time? That figure falls to only 25 percent … marking the steepest decrease on the team over that span.
( Top photo: Miami Herald / Getty Images )
