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Kamala Harris’ rising election odds in recent days have weakened the Trump trade.
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A poll over the weekend found Harris leading Trump in Iowa, swinging betting markets toward her.
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Treasury yields, the US dollar, the Mexican peso, bitcoin, and Trump Media stocks are shifting.
A surprise shift in a key presidential poll over the weekend has swung betting odds toward Kamala Harris, hitting a host of “Trump trades” that have rallied in recent weeks.
A poll released over the weekend found Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa, 47% to 44%. The poll, from The Des Moines Register/Mediacom and conducted by the pollster J. Ann Selzer, is significant in that Iowa has long been considered a state that Trump would win.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” Selzer told The Des Moines Register. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
The poll sent shock waves across betting markets over the weekend, with Kalshi showing Harris’ odds briefly overtaking Trump, 51% to 49%, for the first time since early October.
As of Monday at 11:35 a.m. ET, the odds on the betting site were 55% for Trump and 45% for Harris. On Polymarket, where Trump’s odds were over 60% last week, they’ve fallen to 58.1%, with Harris’ odds at 42.8%.
The big swing in betting odds created waves that are being felt in financial markets on the eve of the election.
Here’s where things stand for five parts of the Trump trade.
The 10-year US Treasury yield plunged 12 basis points on Monday, falling to 4.275% after the weekend’s polling surprise.
A run-up in Treasury yields since the Fed cut interest rates in September reflected the market’s belief that a second Trump presidency looked likely and that it would be an inflationary event because of his promises to implement sweeping tariffs and mass deportations, which would fuel higher prices and wage growth, respectively.
Investors in recent weeks priced in higher yields on the view that Trump’s policies would make it hard for the Fed to lower rates much further.
The dollar soared in October as the odds of a Trump presidency rose, with markets predicting that potential tariffs and higher interest rates would boost the currency versus rivals.
The US dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, jumped about 4% in October.
However, that trade slipped on Monday following Harris’ rising betting odds, with the US dollar index falling nearly 1% to 103.55.
