Welcome to my updated Super Bowl and playoff projections for the NFL season. If you’re new here, I project the score for every game and the win percentage for every team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. We then run that simulation 100,000 times after each day of games to give us our Super Bowl odds and projections from my NFL model.
Notes after NFL Week 2
Why did the Chiefs jump ahead of the Eagles? Kansas City hasn’t been that impressive
Another week, and another Super Bowl favorite per my simulations. The Kansas City Chiefs have regained the top spot after gaining less than a single percent with their win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2.
The Chiefs were able to become the favorites again because of a lackluster performance by the Philadelphia Eagles at home against the Minnesota Vikings. The Eagles benefitted from a plethora of Vikings’ fumbles and didn’t manage to win by a margin. The Eagles dropped to fourth in Super Bowl odds, but the problem is that two NFC foes, including a division rival, jumped them.
Are the Cowboys the best team in the NFC?
That division rival happens to be the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are now the NFC favorite and second most likely team to win the Super Bowl come February. The Cowboys have had two dominant victories against weaker competition but in the NFL, that can go a long way. The San Francisco 49ers are sandwiched between the Cowboys and Eagles in third.
How will Joe Burrow’s injury change the AFC?
The Cincinnati Bengals have fallen to just 44.6% to make the playoffs after their 0-2 start. To make matters worse, this number is assuming we get Joe Burrow back to full health in three weeks while in the next three weeks, he’s at a 75% chance of playing. This number is subjective, but it goes to show how difficult the road will be for the Bengals if their star quarterback can’t get back to full health in the near future.
But the most interesting stat from my simulations this week, in my opinion, is that 27 teams have at least a 14.7% chance to make the playoffs but twelve of those teams have less than a 28% chance to make the playoffs.
Super Bowl Projections
xWins is expected wins, Playoffs is projection to make playoffs and SB win is chances for each team to win the Super Bowl
| team | xWins | playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
|
11.5 |
91.1% |
15.1% |
|
|
11.9 |
95.1% |
13.5% |
|
|
12.0 |
95.5% |
12.9% |
|
|
11.8 |
94.4% |
12.3% |
|
|
10.4 |
78.1% |
8.5% |
|
|
11.0 |
84.2% |
6.8% |
|
|
10.6 |
81.7% |
6.2% |
|
|
10.0 |
74.9% |
3.8% |
|
|
10.4 |
77.0% |
3.1% |
|
|
9.7 |
62.3% |
2.5% |
|
|
9.0 |
44.6% |
2.4% |
|
|
9.1 |
61.4% |
2.2% |
|
|
9.1 |
57.1% |
2.0% |
|
|
9.7 |
67.3% |
1.6% |
|
|
8.1 |
25.9% |
1.2% |
|
|
8.7 |
45.7% |
1.1% |
|
|
7.4 |
23.8% |
0.7% |
|
|
7.2 |
14.7% |
0.5% |
|
|
7.9 |
26.3% |
0.5% |
|
|
7.8 |
25.0% |
0.5% |
|
|
7.9 |
22.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
7.8 |
26.6% |
0.4% |
|
|
7.8 |
25.0% |
0.4% |
|
|
7.5 |
23.0% |
0.4% |
|
|
7.8 |
27.6% |
0.4% |
|
|
7.0 |
15.6% |
0.3% |
|
|
6.4 |
9.3% |
0.2% |
|
|
7.2 |
15.9% |
0.1% |
|
|
5.8 |
5.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
4.8 |
1.8% |
0.0% |
|
|
4.7 |
1.3% |
0.0% |
|
|
4.0 |
0.5% |
0.0% |
Super Bowl Odds
(Photo of Joe Burrow: Ian Johnson / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
